I missed this post by Jeff and just noticed Mugs replyFerru123 wrote:It's possible that the enemy is Betfair itself, in which case you're already 100% transparent (unless their code of ethics stops them from observing what their clients are doing).
Here's a theory.
Maybe the reason that Betfair introduced the 60% PC is because they had been modelling the activities of the people the charge applied to, and knew they could step into their shoes if need be. Maybe what we're up against is a Betfair-operated bot that mimics the activities of the most successful human traders (but without being burdened by commission).
Jeffjimrobo wrote:As there is less money going forward your positions are going to become more transparent and easier to manipulate.
In all seriousness, Im not a big player by any stretch of the imagination and dont think betfair would single me out as such...
But..I was thinking exactly along the same lines as Jeff.
I created brand new system not long back and it had an extremely good strike rate and the profits were coming in...then it was almost like a switch being turned on and the profits ceased. Ive been around long enough to not confuse this with ups and downs
I managed to get around this partially by incorporating a "random number generator" into the algorithm and it now goes off and does its own thing (within guidelines), so its unpredictable
(By the way, it would be technically feasible for betfair to profile your account to predict and manage risk against you) Some of the CRM systems employed by large companies are extremely complex and customer profiling isn't that hard to do
IMO - if betfair wanted to stop the 1% (profitable earners), they could do so very easy
