I'm hoping some of you more experienced traders could spare some time to comment on something that has been on my mind recently.
I have been trading most days for just over a year now. I also try and keep busy by reading as much as I can about trading, systems, probability and anything remotely connected to the topic.
I have had limited success this mast year which I am OK with as I know this business takes a lot to learn and I am still only a beginner.
As seems to be a common theme/advice in forums etc I can tried to limit my bet size to between 2-5% of my bank. I had a couple of bad weeks and I decided to change the way I approached things.
Up to now I had been trading on multiple events (no horses) a day but I changed to betting on less events, doing more research and betting with much higher stakes. This seems to be working for me.
Do you think this can work long term?
Some advice on staking size please
I bet and trade the same event. if this goes wrong before start time i'm risking up to 10% of my bank and bet in play to bring that down to 1%.
On average i'm risking about 3%.
It all depends on how good you are at trading or betting, if your really good 5% i would say is a good number.
On average i'm risking about 3%.
It all depends on how good you are at trading or betting, if your really good 5% i would say is a good number.
Same same here. Good post.marko236 wrote:I bet and trade the same event. if this goes wrong before start time i'm risking up to 10% of my bank and bet in play to bring that down to 1%.
On average i'm risking about 3%.
It all depends on how good you are at trading or betting, if your really good 5% i would say is a good number.
Anything less than 10% into a market is inefficient, in my view, and anything less than 1% profit on average is unsustainable.
You risk for more per trade relative to your bank than some of the top traders in the world (many of whom risk as little as 0.5% per trade). Maybe you're one of those guy who manages an 80% strike rate with few serious drawdowns, but if not, I suspect you're risking far too much...
Jeff
marko236 wrote: On average i'm risking about 3%.
In the last week i'v betted and traded 22 markets all soccer.Ferru123 wrote:
You risk for more per trade relative to your bank than some of the top traders in the world (many of whom risk as little as 0.5% per trade). Maybe you're one of those guy who manages an 80% strike rate with few serious drawdowns, but if not, I suspect you're risking far too much...
Jeffmarko236 wrote: On average i'm risking about 3%.
I've had 15 wins, 3 break evens and 4 loses.
I've eneded up with a profit of 15% of my bank.
That is a statistically meaningless sample size.
You've made 5 points' profit on 22 bets. That would mean that you have a long-term ROI of about 22% if we assume that those figures will hold long-term. Even if you were just betting, I doubt you would get anything remotely close to that kind of return over (say) 2,200 bets.
Jeff
You've made 5 points' profit on 22 bets. That would mean that you have a long-term ROI of about 22% if we assume that those figures will hold long-term. Even if you were just betting, I doubt you would get anything remotely close to that kind of return over (say) 2,200 bets.
Jeff
marko236 wrote: In the last week i'v betted and traded 22 markets all soccer.
I've had 15 wins, 3 break evens and 4 loses.
I've eneded up with a profit of 15% of my bank.
I've learnt over the years that this is not a straightforward answer
For starters, it depends on the size of your bank, as 3% of £500 is very different to 3% of £20000. The greater the figure, the greater risk of exposure.
Whilst Jeff suggests that anything above 3% is unusual for successful traders, I suspect most suucessful BF traders will often place trades of 10% on certain markets and situations (I know I do)
Obviously, many other factors come into play too - liquidity of market, time until off, general confidence in what you're doing etc
For starters, it depends on the size of your bank, as 3% of £500 is very different to 3% of £20000. The greater the figure, the greater risk of exposure.
Whilst Jeff suggests that anything above 3% is unusual for successful traders, I suspect most suucessful BF traders will often place trades of 10% on certain markets and situations (I know I do)
Obviously, many other factors come into play too - liquidity of market, time until off, general confidence in what you're doing etc
But is that stake or realistic risk?LeTiss 4pm wrote: I suspect most suucessful BF traders will often place trades of 10% on certain markets and situations (I know I do)
For example, let's say your bank is £1,000. You might well place an opening bet of £100. However, would you ever let yourself get to £100 in the red on a single trade with that size of bank? I suspect you would close the trade long before it got that far.
Jeff
Jeff says big traders only risk about 0.5% which i can understand in a big market with millions of pounds in it.
The problem here is if you only risk 0.5% in betfair you won't make much money.
You have no choice but to risk about 3% to get a good return.
The problem here is if you only risk 0.5% in betfair you won't make much money.
You have no choice but to risk about 3% to get a good return.
If you're angling for a big hit or to get rich quick, you might as well head for the one armed bandit in your local bookie, as at least you'll be supporting the local economy when you lose all your money. 
Successful trading is about patience and slowly building up your bank despite periods of drawdowns. If it were just a case of 'place a few sizable bets into the market and watch the money roll in', everyone would be doing it and there would be no edge...
Jeff
Successful trading is about patience and slowly building up your bank despite periods of drawdowns. If it were just a case of 'place a few sizable bets into the market and watch the money roll in', everyone would be doing it and there would be no edge...
Jeff
marko236 wrote: The problem here is if you only risk 0.5% in betfair you won't make much money.
You have no choice but to risk about 3% to get a good return.
But is that stake or realistic risk?
For example, let's say your bank is £1,000. You might well place an opening bet of £100. However, would you ever let yourself get to £100 in the red on a single trade with that size of bank? I suspect you would close the trade long before it got that far.
Jeff[/quote]
I would risk it. Why? because i wouldn't leave myself with a £100 risk if i didn't think i wouldn't make money over the long run.
But i would be betting in play to reduce this down to about £10.
For example, let's say your bank is £1,000. You might well place an opening bet of £100. However, would you ever let yourself get to £100 in the red on a single trade with that size of bank? I suspect you would close the trade long before it got that far.
Jeff[/quote]
I would risk it. Why? because i wouldn't leave myself with a £100 risk if i didn't think i wouldn't make money over the long run.
But i would be betting in play to reduce this down to about £10.
You're assuming that the market will be so obliging as to let you reduce a £100 loss into a £10 loss in-play. If you think it will be, you might as well just make £90 every time from the in-play markets and take early retirement.marko236 wrote: I would risk [10% of my bank]. Why? because i wouldn't leave myself with a £100 risk if i didn't think i wouldn't make money over the long run.
But i would be betting in play to reduce this down to about £10.
I didn't say you didn't. I have no way of knowing either way. I was merely cautioning against over-staking.marko236 wrote:Jeff why do you say i haven't got an edge?
I trade to make money and i bet on statistics.
Aslong as i get both of them right most of the time thats my edge.
There are thousands of opportunities to trade in a year on Betfair. If you are not willing to be patient and grow your bank slowly, then you are possibly in the wrong game, however. There are market wizards (look it up) who won't risk anything like 3% on a single trade. Only fools rush in...
Jeff