Is trading possible without an exchange YES

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burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

Ok if you have read the various forums regarding people turning away from betfair ill just let everyone know that you negate the premium charge, 5%, 2% tax employed by betfair by trading with two back bets by a sports-book rather than place a lay bet with betfair.

Ill illustrate,

player x pre match = 1.8 you decide to place a tenner on this player.

player y in play = 2.4, ok the book is below 100% we have a profit what do we do....

firstly, calculate the % of the 1st bet
1/1.8*100= 55.56%

secondly, calculate the % of the 2nd bet
1/2.4 * 100= 41.67%

2nd bet = 41.67/55.56*10 = 7.5

if player x wins = 10*1.8 = 8 win
y losses= -7.5, therefore you have 8-7.5= 0.5 profit.

if y wins = 7.5 * 2.4 = 10.5 win
x looses = -10, therefore you have 10.5-10 = 0.5 prof.

so there you have a green book with 0.5 profit.

Just another way to avoid betfair commission.
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mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

This is simply arbing in it's simplest form.
The problem is when you try and get 5k on each on. The amount you need to turn over makes it unsustainable. The only bookie I know of that would let you have a decent bet is Pinnacle.

This is ok on tennis and some football. But More complex markets where the are more than 3 runners make it way to hard.

Good try :)
burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

I understand that's the case and yes this would be applicable to tennis. What I'm trying to do is put out the concept. Betfair odds have been getting lower and lower, the reason why people are jumping ship is because there is no value. Personally I think betfair will just get worse any will be left with the betfair sports book. What do u do then??
marko236
Posts: 737
Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:54 am

On odds of 1.7 and below tend to be poor, but you can lay them if you think there to low.
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kelpie
Posts: 341
Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:40 am

i agree betfair will one day become superflous as other exchanges get traction

But the other exchanges aren't making many inroads yet. And betdaq is owned by Ladbrokes, enough said. There's no way a bookie like Ladbrokes will let a true exchnage thrive and become betfair II where winners are welcome

I do use Pinnacle much more now, and as someone said above they're the only worthwile bookie. Thumbs up to them.

But even Pinnacle have limits - you can't get full positions in one go, like you can on betfair, so you have to keep returning and accept amended odds. And Pinnacle in play is just a joke.
burdo77
Posts: 351
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

So what's the best in play bookie?
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mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

I have no bookies accounts that I can get a decent bet with except Pinny.

Your concept is correct, but it's impossible to execute on the scale required to any PC player
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kelpie
Posts: 341
Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2012 12:40 am

burdo77 wrote:So what's the best in play bookie?
There isn't one, really.

Pinnacle probably comes close purely because they don't close profitable accounts. But try it and you'll see how they cover themselves. VERY limited windows when you can take positions.

In play is a very modern invention in bookie history; if not for the internet it wouldn't have happened. bookies hate it, truth be told
freddy
Posts: 1132
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 8:22 pm

If your a PC payer on Betfair then i don't see how this works in reality, for reasons already disscussed.

If your a smaller player or just starting out then yes fine, but then you would be ok just using Betfair for a while.

If you think Betfair are bad just wait until you get involved with the Bookies :lol:
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