I'm a bit...fed up, confused...whatever

[Jonathan474]

I've been lurking for a while and watching and learning and paper trading. I've been using BA for a few weeks now. It's great and I am just getting into my Excel automations. Loving the programming/VBA side of it all.

First three weeks trading were good - I increased my (small) bank by 33% with some ups, some small losses, and almost certainly some beginner's luck. The main markets traded were football and pre-race horses. All very promising, I thought. Long way to go but I'm enjoying this.

Then...

Everything has now turned against me. Nothing goes right. Things I had worked with successfully before have just stopped working.

Football trading: all my strategies just give me losses - small, manageable losses (my stops are good) but nonetheless relentless and very dispiriting losses - or tiny profits that Betfair's commision sweeps away into the night.

Pre-race horses: I just cannot scalp anymore. I really don't know what has changed but I just cannot scalp for a single bloody tick anymore! Whatever kind of bet I place, back or lay, the market will either just freeze...for many, many minutes (I tend to trade pre-race up to five minutes out - I know my limitations) or it will IMMEDIATELY turn against me for three or four ticks...and then freeze...for minutes on end.

So, today, after a series of unsuccessful trades with the UK horse race meetings...small losses all round...I am fed up with this. I'm disillusioned with the whole set up.

What can I do to relight my fire...get my interest back?

Small chunter over!

Thanks for all your posts up to date, I have enjoyed most of them and they have been a great source of information and ideas for me. Cheers.

Jon

[Jonathan474]

Actually, since moaning on about this on Saturday afternoon I have been "all green". No red at all...although I thought I was going to suffer one loss but it turned into a Non Runner!

Perhaps it really is all about confidence. If you expect not to end up as a winner then I guess you are already half-way to losing?

Anyway, I have enjoyed the last few days. I've come up with a few more football trading ideas so am keen to get on with testing those.

Take care
Jon

[marko236]

Sounds like your doing ok, can't win all the time.

[ValiantSaint]

Glad to see you're back on the right track. Me, I'm getting fed up with everything I try, failing. Was full of good sprits, last week (Felt like I was seeing patterns in things etc) This week, miles off!

[Euler]

Winter racing markets can be really tough but better stuff is just around the corner. February is my weakest month of the year.

[kelpie]

Don't give up!

There will be light at the end of the tunnel if you keep going

Most systems encounter early randomness.

[Jonathan474]

Thanks for the encouragement. Appreciate it. I'm still hanging in there. I'll tried some new football strategies last night which I'll carry on with today. Also, evening racing at Kempton tonight...something to do whilst the wild wind blows.

Take care
Jon

[steven1976]

I scalp by having my next position in the market. I find if you go with an open position on either side of the book without another position already in place then it can be quite difficult to scalp. Sometimes the next position maybe 1 tick, 2 ticks or 5 ticks depending upon the odds that are trading and the second position maybe of a similar stake size to the initial position or higher depending upon the odds and number of ticks away it is, so that which ever way the market goes it always leaves a position to hopefully scalp and be back in until i feel the next position is moving closer to the front of a queue.

So to explain, i may not put 100 quid at 1.67 and 1.68 as it can shoot through 10 ticks in a split second. However, it is unlikely to shoot through 10 ticks around 6s as quick i find so i may be more likely to put a second position a bit closer to the first, so that whichever way the position moves then you still have a chance of getting out at profit. Of course occasionally it will shoot through everything and ive learnt to just get out. Depending on others to come to the rescue is not always the best thing to do in my opinion.

Dont know if that makes sense but i find a second position in a market can usually have some influence upon the first position.

[barlorca]

To "steven 1976" each person is an individual, and has their own style. As I've noted in previous posts I'm retired, was both an accountant and computer specialist, so automation should be my style.

BUT now, I prefer to research and trade manually, set my entry positions and exit positions. Overall I make money, I could make a hell of a lot more.

I've learned to evolve as Betfair markets have evolved. A few years ago making money on horseracing was easy. Now you are up against bots, automation, fat fingers, spoof money and a myriad of other things.

Rather than do what you are doing, if you've kept records, check back on what worked for you. (as said everybody is different) If not practice. Do what I do, do not trade on every (race, day etc) Practice setting down what you expect. Do you check bookmakers price movements? How is that reflected in Betfair markets?

Do you trade pre off, or in play? Has the (favourite) horse a fighting chance of winning/placing? If it has place your back and lay bets on the assumption that the odds in running will come in (and might drift out at the end). Don't get greedy to start with! Or if you expect the favourite to drop back to mid field and come with a late run, lay the horse and green up early.

The point I'm making is don't expect the markets to move as you expect them to, bots and automation play a larger part in influencing price movements than previously. But human ingenuity still triumphs long term.Small steps.

Remember, we have all been in the position you are in, time and patience work wonders. Find out what you forte is. Good Luck

[steven1976]

To "barloca", the opening post was referring to scalping and therefore my post was in reference to positions for a scalp. Yes, there is no one way to scalp but i dont think you need to look at what bookmakers are doing or know form to make a scalp. Im suggesting if you set up a good position you should be able to react to your scalp position to profit either way.

[JollyGreen]

A small bit of advice which I honestly believe will help you at this stage of your development. STOP SCALPING!! This is not as easy as you think and you have already suffered from the move which wipes out all of your profit and some! Now before people think I am having a pop at Steven1976 let me explain. He has taken time to develop a system of scalping which works for him and more power to him! It requires patience and skill to develop this technique and most newcomers get frustrated.

My advice for what it is worth. Setup to scalp using your normal approach BUT do not enter any trades, unless in practice mode, as the idea here is to lose money. No, I am not crazy, read on! When the market moves against you concentrate on why it moved, what happened to cause the shift from stable 1-tick scalping to 5-tick WTF happened there movement?

Now admittedly the move can be caused by a large order which totally kills the tranquillity. However, you will find that some of the moves can be seen and predicted so the more you observe the more you see the danger. I am not saying you can place an order in time to catch the whole move but you can often see the precursor. If nothing else, it can help you to get the hell out of the market before your position is ruined.

I cannot show you this but you can learn it for yourself if you're prepared to practice it. The other bonus is it will improve your scalping skills. If you can avoid or perhaps catch the bigger move then by definition you can scalp and get out of Dodge before all hell breaks loose!!

I hope this helps

[barlorca]

Thanks JollyGreen, the point I was making but obviously was missed was "you can set up a scalping position", but if a steamer or bot starts a movement then your scalping position is in danger. Get out!

[JollyGreen]

Thanks JollyGreen, the point I was making but obviously was missed was "you can set up a scalping position", but if a steamer or bot starts a movement then your scalping position is in danger. Get out!

I concur 100% my friend I was just trying to add some more ideas to help those who perhaps missed your point or who wanted further proof.

[steven1976]

I think I also said that in my post jg? "Of course occassionally it will shoot......"

I know other seasoned pros have talked about putting through around 100 trades preoff, so be good to hear their views on scalping for profit.

[barlorca]

Thanks steve1976, the point we are all making is that we the experienced, are all trying to help less experienced people.

JollyGreen is more experienced than me ,but I still learn from his posts.