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Champions League 2013/14
Arsenal vs Bayern Munich
We looked at our historical database of matches and found 33 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 19.6% chance of a Arsenal win, a 56.5% chance of a B Munich win and a 24.4% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 21.2% chance of a home win, a 48.5% chance of a away win and a 30.3% chance of a draw. This converts into odds of 4.72 2.06 & 3.3 respectively.
The market is forecasting 3.01 goals. Historically there have been 2.73 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.74. Historically 48.5% of similar matches ended over 2.5 goals which translates into decimal odds of 2.06. This is hinting at lay value in this market.
The home team has scored at least one goal in 63.6% of matches. The away team has scored at least one goal in 72.7% of matches. The home team have scored two or more goals on 33.3% of occasions and three or more goals on 51.5% of occasions. The away team have scored two or more goals on 51.5% of occasions and three or more goals on 21.2% of occasions.Both teams have scored 51.52% of the time or decimal odds of 1.94
We looked at our historical database of matches and found 33 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 19.6% chance of a Arsenal win, a 56.5% chance of a B Munich win and a 24.4% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 21.2% chance of a home win, a 48.5% chance of a away win and a 30.3% chance of a draw. This converts into odds of 4.72 2.06 & 3.3 respectively.
The market is forecasting 3.01 goals. Historically there have been 2.73 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.74. Historically 48.5% of similar matches ended over 2.5 goals which translates into decimal odds of 2.06. This is hinting at lay value in this market.
The home team has scored at least one goal in 63.6% of matches. The away team has scored at least one goal in 72.7% of matches. The home team have scored two or more goals on 33.3% of occasions and three or more goals on 51.5% of occasions. The away team have scored two or more goals on 51.5% of occasions and three or more goals on 21.2% of occasions.Both teams have scored 51.52% of the time or decimal odds of 1.94
Man Utd match this evening
The market is forecasting 2.39 goals. Historically there have been 2.18 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.38. Historically 33.3% of similar matches ended over 2.5 goals which translates into decimal odds of 3. This is hinting at lay value in this market.
The home team has scored at least one goal in 66.7% of matches. The away team has scored at least one goal in 73.3% of matches. The home team have scored two or more goals on 22.2% of occasions and three or more goals on 28.9% of occasions. The away team have scored two or more goals on 28.9% of occasions and three or more goals on 11.1% of occasions.Both teams have scored 48.89% of the time or decimal odds of 2.05
Another area that is also useful, as it adds context to a match, is to look at where this data came from. So on this occasion the market is pricing up tonight's match in the same way as it priced up: -
2011 - Aston Villa vs. Man City
2011 - Sheff Utd vs. Nottm Forest
2011 - Stoke vs. Liverpool
2011 - West Brom vs. Tottenham
So.... when you look at this match this evening, ask yourself if that is a fair assessment or not and then you can bet or trade accordingly.
The market is forecasting 2.39 goals. Historically there have been 2.18 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.38. Historically 33.3% of similar matches ended over 2.5 goals which translates into decimal odds of 3. This is hinting at lay value in this market.
The home team has scored at least one goal in 66.7% of matches. The away team has scored at least one goal in 73.3% of matches. The home team have scored two or more goals on 22.2% of occasions and three or more goals on 28.9% of occasions. The away team have scored two or more goals on 28.9% of occasions and three or more goals on 11.1% of occasions.Both teams have scored 48.89% of the time or decimal odds of 2.05
Another area that is also useful, as it adds context to a match, is to look at where this data came from. So on this occasion the market is pricing up tonight's match in the same way as it priced up: -
2011 - Aston Villa vs. Man City
2011 - Sheff Utd vs. Nottm Forest
2011 - Stoke vs. Liverpool
2011 - West Brom vs. Tottenham
So.... when you look at this match this evening, ask yourself if that is a fair assessment or not and then you can bet or trade accordingly.
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
Man city vs Barca 0-2
Arsenal vs B.M. 0-2
Oly vs Man U 2-0
tomorrow can Chelsea lose 2-0 as well?
The decline started 2 years ago, now the establishment of that decline....happens to every leagues so no worries, in 20-30 years the premier league will flourish again...
Arsenal vs B.M. 0-2
Oly vs Man U 2-0
tomorrow can Chelsea lose 2-0 as well?
The decline started 2 years ago, now the establishment of that decline....happens to every leagues so no worries, in 20-30 years the premier league will flourish again...
He's got a huge job there, as would anyone else who replaced him
So many wonderful servants to Fergie have grown old together, they look a team with no pace. Giggs, Vidic, Ferdinand, Carrick, Van Persie, Evra are all in their 30's - Rio in particular is finished, his legs have gone
He then has others like Young, Cleverley and Smalling, who are simply not good enough.
I also think they made an awful mistake paying Rooney so much money - he looks slow and totally past his best
However, he can't replace everyone with £37M signings like Mata, because Man Utd don't have personal wealth in the boardroom to match Man City, so they'd quickly descend into financial difficulties, especially with no Champions League football
So many wonderful servants to Fergie have grown old together, they look a team with no pace. Giggs, Vidic, Ferdinand, Carrick, Van Persie, Evra are all in their 30's - Rio in particular is finished, his legs have gone
He then has others like Young, Cleverley and Smalling, who are simply not good enough.
I also think they made an awful mistake paying Rooney so much money - he looks slow and totally past his best
However, he can't replace everyone with £37M signings like Mata, because Man Utd don't have personal wealth in the boardroom to match Man City, so they'd quickly descend into financial difficulties, especially with no Champions League football
Fergie is a tough act to follow, and there are deficiencies in the United squad, but I do think he could have done much better with the squad that won the Premiership by 11 points last season.
I also think he's paid way over the odds for Rooney, Fellaini and possibly Mata, when he could have used some of those funds to buy some decent defenders. He's also sent out the message to agents that he's willing to pay silly money when he wants a player.
I also think his attitude is negative - not just in terms of his public comments, but also in terms of his football strategy (such as leaving Kagawa on the bench on the time). Perhaps that negativity has rubbed off on the players, and maybe it is why United no longer play with the desire and determination which can allow you to grind out 1-0 victories, even if they aren't always pretty.
Jeff
I also think he's paid way over the odds for Rooney, Fellaini and possibly Mata, when he could have used some of those funds to buy some decent defenders. He's also sent out the message to agents that he's willing to pay silly money when he wants a player.
I also think his attitude is negative - not just in terms of his public comments, but also in terms of his football strategy (such as leaving Kagawa on the bench on the time). Perhaps that negativity has rubbed off on the players, and maybe it is why United no longer play with the desire and determination which can allow you to grind out 1-0 victories, even if they aren't always pretty.
Jeff
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Groovyelms
- Posts: 277
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 7:42 am
watched some of the game in the pub last night.. someone said "Can you imagine listening to that dreary dreary depressing guy Moyes every f....g day, no wonder the players looked like they were attending their own funeral".Ferru123 wrote:Fergie is a tough act to follow, and there are deficiencies in the United squad, but I do think he could have done much better with the squad that won the Premiership by 11 points last season.
I also think he's paid way over the odds for Rooney, Fellaini and possibly Mata, when he could have used some of those funds to buy some decent defenders. He's also sent out the message to agents that he's willing to pay silly money when he wants a player.
I also think his attitude is negative - not just in terms of his public comments, but also in terms of his football strategy (such as leaving Kagawa on the bench on the time). Perhaps that negativity has rubbed off on the players, and maybe it is why United no longer play with the desire and determination which can allow you to grind out 1-0 victories, even if they aren't always pretty.
Jeff
Change has to happen and the Man U air of invincability is weakened still more...
groovy
David Moyes takes blame for Man Utd defeat at Olympiakos - http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/26348489
Without running the risk of winding Ferru up, football has a history of seeing extraordinary shifts in power
When Alan Hansen lifted Liverpool's 10th League title in 15 years in 1990, who would have believed that 24 years later they'd still looking for their next. Or who have believed after Man Utd won the European Cup in 1968, they wouldn't win the league for another 25 years!
I'm not suggesting United are going to go 25 years without winning the Prem again, but I do believe it will take at least 5 years to create a squad to challenge City, and without Champions League football, they are going to be financially under huge pressure
When Alan Hansen lifted Liverpool's 10th League title in 15 years in 1990, who would have believed that 24 years later they'd still looking for their next. Or who have believed after Man Utd won the European Cup in 1968, they wouldn't win the league for another 25 years!
I'm not suggesting United are going to go 25 years without winning the Prem again, but I do believe it will take at least 5 years to create a squad to challenge City, and without Champions League football, they are going to be financially under huge pressure
