I'm a bit...fed up, confused...whatever

[mugsgame]

Nice one Herbie

Back in the day this was the way to make easy money. Things have moved on (ALOT). In Toddy's day there wasn't some geezer dumping 15k into the market and moving it 10 ticks in one go. This wipes out the 1 tick merchants. So what do you do if this happens? Do you cut your losses and take a 10 tick loss? Do you sit and wait to see if it comes back? What if it doesn't and goes down another 10?

[Iron]

If Adam Todd is finding the trading hard going these days, he should consider a career as a stand-up comedian - his videos are worth watching for the comedy value alone!

Jeff

[gazuty]

Over the next few days I will be adding comments to tell how I attempt to win.

To achieve my aim of $30 per hour profit (tax free naturally), and as my loss scalps are twice the amount of my winning scalps I need to undertake about 18 $300 1 tick scalps per hour.

It is worth noting I manually undertake the lays

A couple of queries, so that newbie readers and others might put your comments in context.

Sorry to be direct, but have you established a long term successful strategy?

It is just that your comments are hedged a little, around "attempt to win" and "aim of $30 per hour".

If you are experimenting and trying hard, more power to you.

If you are already long term successful, congratulations.

If you don't want to say, that is your choice, but it enables readers to calibrate their response.

[Groovyelms]

adam todd vid
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-sonABXM7E
crackin

I am sure many remember these vids and of course the infamous "Badger's Trading tips", anybody know what these two luminaries went on to do next?

groovy

[mugsgame]

The Badger is about I think, Toddy has probably gone back to the Caribbean

[Scalping2go]

To answer a few points raised.
If you looked at Monday at Benalla 13:35 using betfair back prices the chance of one of the top 3 favourites winning varied very little from 6 minutes and 1 minute to the off. eg the odds of the first three favourites at 6 minute to the off, were 2.00, 6.2 and 6.2 giving a calculated chance of one of the selected horse winning at 82.3. At 1 minute to the off the odds were 2.22,4 and 7.2 with a calculated chance of winning of 83.9:little change. Throughout the 6 minutes the odds of the favourite moved little and didn't at any stage appear that they would move significantly. On the other hand at exactly 4:32 to the off, the third favourite started to move out going from 6.2 to eventually 7.0 over the next 3 to 4 minutes. At exactly 4:15 to the off, the second favourite started to shorten from 4.7 to eventually 4.0. The time to start scalping the second favourite was just after the third favourite started to drift. As the movement was not directly down it was possible to make 6 ticks.
To another question it has works over a number of months. As stated previously my aim is $30.00 per hour. I am only getting $22.00 currently since in Australia on days other than a Saturday, the turnover is not sufficient to scalp with the amount I desire.

I raise these questions not to say "look at me" but rather make us all think on how to become better gamblers. Before using information from 3 horses I was having fun but little profit. Now I am have fun with sufficient profit to make the effort worthwhile.
Your suggestions and comments have been appreciated

[mugsgame]

To answer a few points raised.
If you looked at Monday at Benalla 13:35 using betfair back prices the chance of one of the top 3 favourites winning varied very little from 6 minutes and 1 minute to the off. eg the odds of the first three favourites at 6 minute to the off, were 2.00, 6.2 and 6.2 giving a calculated chance of one of the selected horse winning at 82.3. At 1 minute to the off the odds were 2.22,4 and 7.2 with a calculated chance of winning of 83.9:little change. Throughout the 6 minutes the odds of the favourite moved little and didn't at any stage appear that they would move significantly. On the other hand at exactly 4:32 to the off, the third favourite started to move out going from 6.2 to eventually 7.0 over the next 3 to 4 minutes. At exactly 4:15 to the off, the second favourite started to shorten from 4.7 to eventually 4.0. The time to start scalping the second favourite was just after the third favourite started to drift. As the movement was not directly down it was possible to make 6 ticks.
To another question it has works over a number of months. As stated previously my aim is $30.00 per hour. I am only getting $22.00 currently since in Australia on days other than a Saturday, the turnover is not sufficient to scalp with the amount I desire.

I raise these questions not to say "look at me" but rather make us all think on how to become better gamblers. Before using information from 3 horses I was having fun but little profit. Now I am have fun with sufficient profit to make the effort worthwhile.
Your suggestions and comments have been appreciated

Sorry fella, but you didn't answer the points I raised. Your method is vague and frankly unworkable on so many levels.
You say you started to scalp the 2nd fav after the 3rd fav drifted? Why? The market was static previous to that. Isn't a static market a scalpers dream? I'm more confused now that I was before

But if you can make it work I wish you well.

[Iron]

Scalping2go - I agree with Mugs.

What's needed IMHO is a systematic approach which answers these questions:

A. At what point do I enter the market?
B. At what point do I exit the market?
C. How much do I stake per trade?

If you can't answer those questions with specific answers, you may well be gambling...

Jeff

Sorry fella, but you didn't answer the points I raised. Your method is vague and frankly unworkable on so many levels.

[marko236]

Scalping2go is making money which you can't argue with.

My question to Scalping is do you trade loads of times with small amounts of money or do you wait for the moment you can make 1 or 2 big trades in an hour?

[Iron]

'Is making money' does not equal 'Has long-term edge and will continue to make money'.

Also, before you make a statement like that, don't you want to know exactly what his track record looks like? He might have made money overall on a few trades due to random chance.

Jeff

Scalping2go is making money which you can't argue with.

[marko236]

I dont trade horses but i can see the logic in scalping2go he's made a fair point on how he does it.

[Iron]

I can see his logic, but whether it is sound logic is another matter.

I'm not a big fan of argument by appeal to authority, but Mugs has made over a million pounds from Betfair over the years, so when he describes someone's approach as 'unworkable', I wouldn't dismiss what he says out of hand...

Jeff

I dont trade horses but i can see the logic in scalping2go he's made a fair point on how he does it.

[marko236]

Jeff there's thousands of different ways to trade, I dont know them all, you don't know them all and even mugs doesn't know them all.

[Iron]

Thousands of ways to trade? Yes.

Thousands of profitable ways to trade? Not so sure about that one...

For you to have a long-term edge, you have to exploit a long-term inefficiency of ultra-efficient markets. I would hazard that there's a limited number of angles to profitably exploit.

Jeff

Jeff there's thousands of different ways to trade, I dont know them all, you don't know them all and even mugs doesn't know them all.

[James1st]

I don't understand why Scalping2Go is getting a third degree grilling. He has stated his method; essentially taking direction from the first 3 in betting as their odds change. A method, I have to say sounds pretty much what Mugs himself does.

I don't see why he couldn't make it work as well as Mugs does and I say; good on ya fella!