Since I wrote a whining "Oh, I keep losing" post on here on 8 Feb I had a bit of a word with myself, relaxed a bit and enjoyed 18 green days in a row - 9 to 26 Feb, all green. I increased my bank (it's a small bank, well, small-ish, don't laugh!) by 50%. I've got it, I proudly announced to myself, thinking that maybe I could actually succeed at this trading nonsense.
Hmmm....the last two days have shown me how wrong I am. In trading on football matches last night and tonight I have wiped out 33% of my bank...I'm back to my starting point on 9 Feb. I am
What have I learned?
1) I need a plan THAT I WILL ACTUALLY FOLLOW
when things turn against me. I realise that I have a vague plan, well an idea about a plan, but that I try and get clever...FAIL. That inability to stick to a plan cost me quite a lot of money last night as I watched my oh so fu*king clever Plan B turn to sh*te when Spurs banged in their third goal. In future, am going to write down my plan - including my exit route for when things go wrong - on a piece of paper and stick it onto my forehead.
2) Concentrate when you put bets on. Yes, I get all excited when I stick my head over the top and commit to a betting strategy but FFS get it right. Mixing up a lay bet in the Unders/Overs market on a Scottish match with a lay bet in the Correct Score market on a Spanish match has cost me dear tonight. A stupid, school-boy error has cost me 19% of my bank balance.
3) Don't over-extend. I have moved from trading on just one, maybe two, markets to four markets simultaneously, and for bigger stakes - £10 stakes instead of £2s and £5s. Two changes in behaviour instead of one incremental change at a time. So more to think about at the same time, and now I'm worrying about the size of the gains and losses produced by tick movements. Someone on here has said something on the lines of, if you are worrying about the size of your loss, your stake size is too high - so lower it. So, tomorrow it's back to one or two markets and back to lower stakes.
This is a steep bloody learning curve.
Oh well. Onwards and upwards.
Take care
Jon
A wake up call
I spent 6 months going up and down like a yoyo, however to succeed in this game you must be at the top of your game.
Firstly you need a plan backed up by statistics not just a hunch.
Secondly u need to stake corectly according to your hit rate.
Thirdly you need a get out plan If it goes wrong.
I've incorporated a concept which I found benefical.
Its called Plan Do Check Review.
Without reviewing your losses and analysing what went wrong you have learnt $&?!all going into the next trade.
I personally have taken a break from trading to work on my stats hopefully come back stronger than ever!
Firstly you need a plan backed up by statistics not just a hunch.
Secondly u need to stake corectly according to your hit rate.
Thirdly you need a get out plan If it goes wrong.
I've incorporated a concept which I found benefical.
Its called Plan Do Check Review.
Without reviewing your losses and analysing what went wrong you have learnt $&?!all going into the next trade.
I personally have taken a break from trading to work on my stats hopefully come back stronger than ever!
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Jonathan474
- Posts: 14
- Joined: Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:25 pm
Thanks for the comments. Yes, 33% is far too much of my bank to risk...and not something I would normally put at risk. In this case most of that loss was not caused by incorrect staking or accepting a stupid risk/reward ratio but by my getting "over-excited" and not paying attention to the bets I was making. Am unforgiveable and stupid error. I won't make that mistake again in a hurry. Normally, I risk no more than 6-12% of my betting bank on any one trade and again, normally, only if I have an exit strategy. Bear in mind also that my bank is small so £10 at this stage represents 5% of my starting capital. Small beans to the bigger guys, I realise,but a lay of the minimum £2 at odds of 6 will put that 5% at risk.
I stopped trading completely for a few days after my disasterous performance and, in fact, have scaled back my trading activities whilst I re-think my approach. Reducing my stakes and trading on fewer markets at the same time will help. Paying more attention to the markets I choose to enter and, most importantly, devising a good exit strategy are now my priorities. The football strategy I was using exposed me to too much risk for the potential reward, and I didn't/don't yet have the knowledge to work out the safe exit. I now have a plan and am carefully testing that exit strategy using small stakes. My new approach also uses a lot more statistics and careful reasoned thought about the markets I enter and the entry points I take.
Interestingly, I also realised that I am placing bets on as trades but actually behaving as if they were punts on the outcomes. That conflict means I don't know what to do when the odds come in/move out to take my trade into a loss. Do I "red" up because that is what my traing strategy says to do when actually staying in the trade would have been better because I was still confident that that the outcome I have bet on will happen - it just hasn't happened yet? I exited four out of six markets last weekend when the odds on that market had fallen far enough to wipe out 50% of my initial stake - one of my original exit points - only to find that the outcome that I had expected had happened by full-time. That is four winning outcomes I voluntarily came out of. I don't know what to do about that...yet.
It's good fun and bloody hard work. I am enjoying the good bits but taking the knocks seriously.
Thanks for the posts.
Kind regards
Jon
I stopped trading completely for a few days after my disasterous performance and, in fact, have scaled back my trading activities whilst I re-think my approach. Reducing my stakes and trading on fewer markets at the same time will help. Paying more attention to the markets I choose to enter and, most importantly, devising a good exit strategy are now my priorities. The football strategy I was using exposed me to too much risk for the potential reward, and I didn't/don't yet have the knowledge to work out the safe exit. I now have a plan and am carefully testing that exit strategy using small stakes. My new approach also uses a lot more statistics and careful reasoned thought about the markets I enter and the entry points I take.
Interestingly, I also realised that I am placing bets on as trades but actually behaving as if they were punts on the outcomes. That conflict means I don't know what to do when the odds come in/move out to take my trade into a loss. Do I "red" up because that is what my traing strategy says to do when actually staying in the trade would have been better because I was still confident that that the outcome I have bet on will happen - it just hasn't happened yet? I exited four out of six markets last weekend when the odds on that market had fallen far enough to wipe out 50% of my initial stake - one of my original exit points - only to find that the outcome that I had expected had happened by full-time. That is four winning outcomes I voluntarily came out of. I don't know what to do about that...yet.
It's good fun and bloody hard work. I am enjoying the good bits but taking the knocks seriously.
Thanks for the posts.
Kind regards
Jon
I am having the same problem. exiting early to break even or gain a small profit, then bang a goal is scored and my original bet/trade ends up being the result. eg Napoli v Porto tonight. Personally I sort of try to protect my bank as much as possible for little or no risk, so I suppose a small green is better than a red. Not easy is it. Good luck in the future Jonathan. I'm sure we'll crack it.