Ferru123 wrote:
How do you determine what the price should be?
With greatest respect, the market probably has a better idea of what the correct price is than you do.
In 1907, Sir Francis Galton asked 787 villagers to guess the weight of an ox. None of them got the right answer, but when Galton averaged their guesses, he arrived at a near perfect estimate. This is a classic demonstration of the “wisdom of the crowds”, where groups of people pool their abilities to show collective intelligence.
From
http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com ... he-crowds/
Jeff
It depends whether you are "one of the crowd" or you are the person who is directing the crowd where to go. If you sit and wait for the crowd to determine the true price, based on this market efficiency super quote - (fuck me Jeff you are even more quotastic than usual this week) then you are part of the crowd and the not the clever dickie waiting to use their collective knowledge to fill up their Jaguar with petrol.
If you are basing you your determination of market direction or "true odds" on this group of retarded villagers (probably interbred too), the what's stopping you popping into the City where there is a group of people who are considered experts on the subject, gaining their opinion, then nipping back to the village before the interbreds finish their ox weighing antics and surprising them with your superior knowledge (gained off the back of people cleverer than you or the interbreds)?
I think many look at things one dimensionally. You are too busy worrying about the weight of farm yard animals instead of having one for lunch
