Hello,
I have been using the old 'lay more at a lower price to manually green up' on Betfair for a while but because you need a 4 or 5 tick swing to make it work at short prices its a bit frustrating. Many decent trades have to be aborted for small losses one tick short of the green area. For this reason I am going to give Bet Angel a try as I like the idea of a one tick offset. I am thinking of starting with a £500 bank and was wondering what stakes could or should be used for this size bank? I was thinking £10 would be sensible, but with the stop loss facility maybe higher levels would be ok? And yes, I do realise that if I am a hopeless trader it doesn't matter what stakes I use but I have had decent success reading the markets for a year or so but only making 1-2 quid a race using the Back to Lay method. Any advice will be gratefully accepted.
Sensible stakes for new user
Hi and welcome.
I use progressive staking. meaning I add to the trade or reduce it depending on how much profit I am in and how I see the swing going. I recommend 5% of your bank initial trade - So that's £25 of your £500. The lower prices mean lower damage if you get it wrong.
So for example. If you back at 3 and you have a 3 ticks, but the trade is still looking good. Stick in another £25. This moves your scratch position down but increases your profit per tick. Or just take the 3 ticks.
With the initial £25 I would look at a max loss before closing the trade at 20% of your stake at £5. It depends on your win ratio and average win though.
To put it simply: If you win £5 on average and lose £5 on average. If you have a success rate of better than 50% you make money. You need to adjust your staking to accommodate your SR. It's no good having a SR of 80% at an average win of £5 and then losing £40 on your losing trades. There needs to be some balance.
The main thing is you don't bet more than you can afford to lose, and you are realistic with your expectations.
I am sure someone will point you in the direction of some good videos and stuff.
This is my opinion, but others will disagree for sure. Staking is a bit subjective and depends on many things.
I use progressive staking. meaning I add to the trade or reduce it depending on how much profit I am in and how I see the swing going. I recommend 5% of your bank initial trade - So that's £25 of your £500. The lower prices mean lower damage if you get it wrong.
So for example. If you back at 3 and you have a 3 ticks, but the trade is still looking good. Stick in another £25. This moves your scratch position down but increases your profit per tick. Or just take the 3 ticks.
With the initial £25 I would look at a max loss before closing the trade at 20% of your stake at £5. It depends on your win ratio and average win though.
To put it simply: If you win £5 on average and lose £5 on average. If you have a success rate of better than 50% you make money. You need to adjust your staking to accommodate your SR. It's no good having a SR of 80% at an average win of £5 and then losing £40 on your losing trades. There needs to be some balance.
The main thing is you don't bet more than you can afford to lose, and you are realistic with your expectations.
I am sure someone will point you in the direction of some good videos and stuff.
This is my opinion, but others will disagree for sure. Staking is a bit subjective and depends on many things.
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The Grinder
- Posts: 8
- Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:22 am
Thanks for that, do you use a stop loss at all? I am in front of a screen all the time while trading so I can jump in if the stop loss doesn't trigger automatically which would normally put me off using it..
NO!!!!The Grinder wrote:Thanks for that, do you use a stop loss at all? I am in front of a screen all the time while trading so I can jump in if the stop loss doesn't trigger automatically which would normally put me off using it..
If we are talking ladders. There is much movement in the prices, if you will get triggered all the time. Set a position in your mind that you do not want to go beyond. Manually close the trade
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
Grinder
Get over here and watching the videos ,
this guy is a really good trader.he also has a rap for being hot headed ,and is prone to throwing a wabbler when people people post silly things on the forum,
but its the best free trading advice free on the net.
He is dave ,,AKA mugs ,,check it out..
Marc
http://www.quiteamug.co.uk/
Get over here and watching the videos ,
this guy is a really good trader.he also has a rap for being hot headed ,and is prone to throwing a wabbler when people people post silly things on the forum,
but its the best free trading advice free on the net.
He is dave ,,AKA mugs ,,check it out..
Marc
http://www.quiteamug.co.uk/
Good post from mugs
For me, I run every market on 10% stakes provided a -5% red is feasible, which may sound a lot but my red markets are capped on 5% (3% when I'm on steroids). And for green markets I'm growing +1%.
I also factor in another 5% of markets lost to betfair bots.
Therefore 10% losing markets, half to true market and half to market deception by betfair, which delivers my aim of two steps forward for every one step backwards. ROI of 50% return on risked capital. Better than bonds at 7%!!
For me, I run every market on 10% stakes provided a -5% red is feasible, which may sound a lot but my red markets are capped on 5% (3% when I'm on steroids). And for green markets I'm growing +1%.
I also factor in another 5% of markets lost to betfair bots.
Therefore 10% losing markets, half to true market and half to market deception by betfair, which delivers my aim of two steps forward for every one step backwards. ROI of 50% return on risked capital. Better than bonds at 7%!!
Read this 17 times and am in awe of your maths Kelpiekelpie wrote:Good post from mugs
For me, I run every market on 10% stakes provided a -5% red is feasible, which may sound a lot but my red markets are capped on 5% (3% when I'm on steroids). And for green markets I'm growing +1%.
I also factor in another 5% of markets lost to betfair bots.
Therefore 10% losing markets, half to true market and half to market deception by betfair, which delivers my aim of two steps forward for every one step backwards. ROI of 50% return on risked capital. Better than bonds at 7%!!
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
sorry steve. dont know where dave came from,i was attempting to multi task while posting that,
Marc
Marc
as long as you're moer green than red life's all right