Hi All
I've been operating systems for about six years, using Adrian Massey's site then Horseracebase. It all went well - with obvious ups and downs - for about five and a half years and last May I had the dreaded email from Betfair to prepare me for 40% premium charges.
Since then, things have dropped off alarmingly. Back systems particularly have lost heavily but the lay systems haven't been an awful lot better. I did the usual things that had worked well on slumps before - drop new systems that were probably backfitted and not working, tighten up on rules, examine the systems' logic more closely etc. No panic measures - I really don't constantly mess with the systems.
I've gone about as far as I can now and have to decide - do I think this is a particularly long and bad losing run (9 months) or has the day arrived when this just doesn't work any more? I've made very good money out of this and have no intention of giving it back,but I don't want to give up something good too soon.
Has anyone got any views on this? Have the exchange markets changed significantly in the last year? Is the world and his dog doing systems betting, selecting similar horses and dragging the prices down?
Is the value no longer there?
I'd love your views.
Best regards
Trickle
Systems not what they were
So many are seeing this now.
The ONLY conclusion is that betfair trade against winning customers. Once Hammersmith have crossed the cusp of peeking at winning edges it is so easy for them to point bots at the approaches.
You either adapt your edge to trade v the betfair bots or quite while you're green
The ONLY conclusion is that betfair trade against winning customers. Once Hammersmith have crossed the cusp of peeking at winning edges it is so easy for them to point bots at the approaches.
You either adapt your edge to trade v the betfair bots or quite while you're green
Also, in fairness (using the word very loosely) to betfair, a heck of a lot of retail financial houses trade against their customers - the likes of IG and eToro and other filth.
The betting (groan
) is that betfair probably take comfort that they're not alone in trading against their customer base
The betting (groan
) is that betfair probably take comfort that they're not alone in trading against their customer base
I know somebody very well (doesn't post on this forum) who earns far more than I do
However, in the past 12 months his edge has disappeared - He's now struggling to turn a profit
He's absolutely convinced that BF have studied winning accounts, studied their activity and are taking their edge away by copying their strategy, or even manipulating the system to counteract what they do
He has no proof of course, but he thinks BF are being guilty of some very underhand practices behind the scenes
However, in the past 12 months his edge has disappeared - He's now struggling to turn a profit
He's absolutely convinced that BF have studied winning accounts, studied their activity and are taking their edge away by copying their strategy, or even manipulating the system to counteract what they do
He has no proof of course, but he thinks BF are being guilty of some very underhand practices behind the scenes
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
Goldman Sachs are notorious for trading against their clients and were found out selling securitised mortgage backed-garbage to clients while shorting them heavily in the run up to the financial crisis. Their ex-chief currency strategist Thomas Stolper was pure comedy with his FX calls - if you'd faded the lot you'd have made an absolute fortune.kelpie wrote:a heck of a lot of retail financial houses trade against their customers - the likes of IG and eToro and other filth.
Re Betfair, I'm not sure, but nobody should be surprised if their auto-edges don't last. Automation will always end up eating itself one way or another.
Interesting to hear other non-posters also see the same thing.
i doubt betfair copy edges. If yes, then the edges will be still intact, more or less. It's much more their bookie style to trade against them, meaning not only customers lose but the opposite book profits.
Most likley Hammersmith parks the profits in their Sportsbook line. Of note, profits from betfair's Sportsbook have risen +33% year-on-year. Wonder how that happened...
i doubt betfair copy edges. If yes, then the edges will be still intact, more or less. It's much more their bookie style to trade against them, meaning not only customers lose but the opposite book profits.
Most likley Hammersmith parks the profits in their Sportsbook line. Of note, profits from betfair's Sportsbook have risen +33% year-on-year. Wonder how that happened...
I think this is just the inevitable consequence of more people getting hold of more (and better) information....
At the begggining of the internet age you could make money simply by blindly backing any horse that had run within the last 5 days as these tended to be overpriced. Nowadays so many people have access to the same criteria then it's inevitable that edges will disappear unfortunately, particularly if you are using information that is freely available.
If you want to make systems work nowadays then I'd imagine you would need to build your own databases with your own criteria that are not already covered elsewhere, and keep the whole thing to yourself. Adrianmassey could have been a multi millionaire (maybe he is anyway, I don't know) if he had kept his ratings / database to himself.
At the begggining of the internet age you could make money simply by blindly backing any horse that had run within the last 5 days as these tended to be overpriced. Nowadays so many people have access to the same criteria then it's inevitable that edges will disappear unfortunately, particularly if you are using information that is freely available.
If you want to make systems work nowadays then I'd imagine you would need to build your own databases with your own criteria that are not already covered elsewhere, and keep the whole thing to yourself. Adrianmassey could have been a multi millionaire (maybe he is anyway, I don't know) if he had kept his ratings / database to himself.
Goldmans, yes, good one one. Basically every significant IPO since forever the underwriting banks have played both sidessuperfrank wrote: Goldman Sachs are notorious for trading against their clients
Re Betfair, I'm not sure, but nobody should be surprised if their auto-edges don't last. Automation will always end up eating itself one way or another.
It's a good point whether betfair will get hoist by their own petard. One of their bots I've spotted in the binary markets and there is a weakness there... it will be interesting to see if anyone calls their bluff on it. They could have to take a serious hit which would have to show on their Sportsbook line (if I am right and their double dealing is hidden there)
Over the years there are many things I have had good success with and now don't work at all.
I am not convinced by the conspiracy theories. I believe it's evolution of the markets. Here's a prime example. LTD - At one time is was guaranteed to win money. I wouldn't go near that now (not that I ever did anyway).
One door closes and another opens. Like many who have had long term success, you just have to keep dreaming up new ways to profit. It's annoying, but that's life.
You always have to be one step ahead of the game.
I am sure PW doesn't sit back and use the strategies he has used for the last 6 years. I'd be amazed if he wasn't seeing how the markets are developing and thinking up new stuff.
I am not convinced by the conspiracy theories. I believe it's evolution of the markets. Here's a prime example. LTD - At one time is was guaranteed to win money. I wouldn't go near that now (not that I ever did anyway).
One door closes and another opens. Like many who have had long term success, you just have to keep dreaming up new ways to profit. It's annoying, but that's life.
You always have to be one step ahead of the game.
I am sure PW doesn't sit back and use the strategies he has used for the last 6 years. I'd be amazed if he wasn't seeing how the markets are developing and thinking up new stuff.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
+1mugsgame wrote:I am not convinced by the conspiracy theories. I believe it's evolution of the markets.
I don't buy into it either, a convenient excuse for falling performance is more how I see it. I had heaps of edges disappear in my time on Betfair and over the years heard all sorts of things Betfair supposedly got up to. I heard Elvis was hiding out at Hammersmith Towers
Gents
I think evolution is only partially to blame. You may have noticed some of my other posts on the thread started by JimRobo. I have mainly traded on auto since 2007 (well before XM) and at the peak (just after XM) was earning >£700/Day on average
This started to tail off six months or so after XM and has slowly declined over the last 18 months. It's not just me but if you read other forums where they use auto strategies, its the same story.
I have run my systems and slowed the action down frame by frame by recording them and I can see what's happening to cause my systems not to run.
For what its worth:-
1. I have a latency of circa 17ms, but someone is getting to the exchange 'well' ahead me.
2. Not only that but rather than jump just sightly ahead of me in terms of position, the bets are placed well inside mine (not logical), and it varies. So even if you relax the parameters, to push them beyond what you anticipate the other trader(s) to place them at, they no longer are profitable. So no point doing it with commission and PC
3. Here's the strange one. Very seldom when placing a bet in play, it gets matched, but the corresponding offset doesn't get matched. Its as if the odds do not come back down once they have risen unless there is a very good chance that horse will win. It doesn't make sense to me and Ive been able to capitalise on this factor alone (not only do you see some high priced winners, but you also get some low losing odds as part of the XM process). Thats why we are seeing more 1000/1 winners and more very low odds that lose.
Betfair have extremely powerful systems, capable of millions of calculations per second. They must have all sorts of algos running that provide real time exposures. The one second they have over us is a LIFETIME in processing terms.
Im not complaining; because the market is what the market is and you have to adapt. Im just very grateful for what Ive made over the years and put the money to good use and saved a chunk too.
I dont even think it is an individual either. Its either Betfair themselves or a very well run team that has an advantage of some description. The question is, how do they manage to jump my position EVERY time?
having said all that; Im now trying my hand at pre Race trading, Truth is, Its such hard work compared with the auto stuff so Im battling with myself to keep this up. Not easy when you have a full time job!
Regards
Peter
I think evolution is only partially to blame. You may have noticed some of my other posts on the thread started by JimRobo. I have mainly traded on auto since 2007 (well before XM) and at the peak (just after XM) was earning >£700/Day on average
This started to tail off six months or so after XM and has slowly declined over the last 18 months. It's not just me but if you read other forums where they use auto strategies, its the same story.
I have run my systems and slowed the action down frame by frame by recording them and I can see what's happening to cause my systems not to run.
For what its worth:-
1. I have a latency of circa 17ms, but someone is getting to the exchange 'well' ahead me.
2. Not only that but rather than jump just sightly ahead of me in terms of position, the bets are placed well inside mine (not logical), and it varies. So even if you relax the parameters, to push them beyond what you anticipate the other trader(s) to place them at, they no longer are profitable. So no point doing it with commission and PC
3. Here's the strange one. Very seldom when placing a bet in play, it gets matched, but the corresponding offset doesn't get matched. Its as if the odds do not come back down once they have risen unless there is a very good chance that horse will win. It doesn't make sense to me and Ive been able to capitalise on this factor alone (not only do you see some high priced winners, but you also get some low losing odds as part of the XM process). Thats why we are seeing more 1000/1 winners and more very low odds that lose.
Betfair have extremely powerful systems, capable of millions of calculations per second. They must have all sorts of algos running that provide real time exposures. The one second they have over us is a LIFETIME in processing terms.
Im not complaining; because the market is what the market is and you have to adapt. Im just very grateful for what Ive made over the years and put the money to good use and saved a chunk too.
I dont even think it is an individual either. Its either Betfair themselves or a very well run team that has an advantage of some description. The question is, how do they manage to jump my position EVERY time?
having said all that; Im now trying my hand at pre Race trading, Truth is, Its such hard work compared with the auto stuff so Im battling with myself to keep this up. Not easy when you have a full time job!
Regards
Peter
Last edited by PeterLe on Tue Apr 01, 2014 4:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The only people that moan about bots are people that use them, i'v only been doing this a short time and i can tell when bots are in use and i'm pretty good at tell what they are trying to achive, turn the bots off and trade the market as you see it.
Many thanks for all your thoughts. Interesting to see other people experiencing a similar outcome. I'm not sure about BF's trading against systems strategy - I defer to those with greater knowledge of these things.
However, experience and gut feeling tells me that the edge I had using systems has gone, is probably not coming back, and I need to find something new.
Good while it lasted though.
However, experience and gut feeling tells me that the edge I had using systems has gone, is probably not coming back, and I need to find something new.
Good while it lasted though.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
I've no idea why people would doubt that dirty play is possibly going on. Just today on the BBC there is an article about manipulation on stock markets that the FBI are investigating http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26830559
No idea why people would think similar practices would not happen on an unregulated exchange for gambling.
No idea why people would think similar practices would not happen on an unregulated exchange for gambling.
I am not saying that it couldn't happen. What I am doing is offering you my 9 years experience (7 of that full time) watching and trading on the racing markets. They constantly change. My best advice to anyone who thinks that they might not be getting a fair deal is - walk away.steven1976 wrote:I've no idea why people would doubt that dirty play is possibly going on. Just today on the BBC there is an article about manipulation on stock markets that the FBI are investigating http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26830559
No idea why people would think similar practices would not happen on an unregulated exchange for gambling.
If that's what I truly believed I would quit.