Not saying its not very easy to trade against. Just trying to warn newbies that come in and put 100 pounds at 10.5 and sit there thinking it looked like a good entry point as it moves up to 15s and sit there scratching their head.
For people that look for value its probably a great time to be involved if you are happy to sit on a position for a longer time. Im only talking about very short term movements in my comments. Enough for most people to panic. Same like in the stock markets. They are only looking to take an advantage for the shortest period of time i would imagine.
Systems not what they were
I'm with Steven.steven1976 wrote:I've no idea why people would doubt that dirty play is possibly going on.
Betfair are now just bookie scum so having bots that trade against their customers is a badge of honour, not something to be embarrased about.
betfair management now is mostly ex-bookies, enough said.
To pump-and-dump the FTSE you need billions and have to face FSA scrutiny eventually; to shaft punters on betfair is way less more expensive and no one really checks, really
The trick is to accept that things have changed and the look to exploit those new dynamics..and perfect on cue timing..PeterLe wrote: (not only do you see some high priced winners, but you also get some low losing odds as part of the XM process). Thats why we are seeing more 1000/1 winners and more very low odds that lose.
a high priced winner and low priced losersviewtopic.php?f=5&t=7400&start=1460
Theres no point looking back. A great little book (although simplistic text) for those struggling to deal with change is :-
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Who-Moved-My-Ch ... 0091816971
its all about a growth mind set., a key fundamental component in setting the winners from the losers in the future. I gave this to one of my children when they were struggling to adapt to change and it helped tremendously
I'm with PeterLe on this one. I think it's partly natural market evolution, and partly due to Betfair changing various policies, new API etc... The other related thread is here:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8979
As for whether Betfair somehow manipulate their markets, I don't think the answer should make much difference to how you approach things. I personally don't think they do as it would be suicide if people found out, but I think that they probably do give some accounts preferential treatment (which is almost as bad).
In the end the market is how it is, and you need to find new ways of working with it as it changes. Trickle, I'd say if you had a working system for over 5 years, that's pretty amazing! I've been trading systems for almost exactly 4 years now, and have worked around one core concept. I've had to continuously tweak it to stay profitable though, and I currently run 5 different systems (all slightly related). There are always ups and downs, but March was my best month on record (ignoring PC). So it's possible, just not as easy as it used to be.
In response to the original post: 9 months is a pretty long draw down. I don't think I'd ever run a system which didn't have an expectation of being profitable within a month or most two. You need to compare against the past performance to know whether it's really died or not. What was the previous longest draw down, average daily/weekly/monthly volatility in returns, etc... But on the limited information, it does sound like it's not worth pursuing in its current state.
I wouldn't say give up trading/betting completely though. I often find that very basic tweaks can make significant improvements to a strategy. However in order to test these you need to have a method of backtesting changes, and hopefully you've kept enough data for you to be able to be flexible with trying different things.
In my opinion, in the world of systems and automated trading, the potential that you have is in the data that you have.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8979
As for whether Betfair somehow manipulate their markets, I don't think the answer should make much difference to how you approach things. I personally don't think they do as it would be suicide if people found out, but I think that they probably do give some accounts preferential treatment (which is almost as bad).
In the end the market is how it is, and you need to find new ways of working with it as it changes. Trickle, I'd say if you had a working system for over 5 years, that's pretty amazing! I've been trading systems for almost exactly 4 years now, and have worked around one core concept. I've had to continuously tweak it to stay profitable though, and I currently run 5 different systems (all slightly related). There are always ups and downs, but March was my best month on record (ignoring PC). So it's possible, just not as easy as it used to be.
In response to the original post: 9 months is a pretty long draw down. I don't think I'd ever run a system which didn't have an expectation of being profitable within a month or most two. You need to compare against the past performance to know whether it's really died or not. What was the previous longest draw down, average daily/weekly/monthly volatility in returns, etc... But on the limited information, it does sound like it's not worth pursuing in its current state.
I wouldn't say give up trading/betting completely though. I often find that very basic tweaks can make significant improvements to a strategy. However in order to test these you need to have a method of backtesting changes, and hopefully you've kept enough data for you to be able to be flexible with trying different things.
In my opinion, in the world of systems and automated trading, the potential that you have is in the data that you have.
Huge sums get taken out of the exchange on a daily basis. Who is paying the successful traders?
In the past I would guess a combination of fresh traders/punters and big traders leaving money on table for whatever reason.
Certainly fewer newbies around and big traders have tightened non edges or left BF completely.
I see this as a long term issue for any exchange. I hope european/US regulations become a non issue and the user base ramps up but I fear the worse.
In the past I would guess a combination of fresh traders/punters and big traders leaving money on table for whatever reason.
Certainly fewer newbies around and big traders have tightened non edges or left BF completely.
I see this as a long term issue for any exchange. I hope european/US regulations become a non issue and the user base ramps up but I fear the worse.
I tweeted Ian Chuter, BF's operations director, about this matter.
Me: Does Betfair study the methods of winning traders? See [link to this thread] for example.
Ian: Categorically not we go enormous lengths to protect customer data. Cross matching engines are employed but only to help match. We don't trade against Betfair customers. Price rush is used to match bets from Sportsbook if better prices are available on the exchange.
Jeff
Me: Does Betfair study the methods of winning traders? See [link to this thread] for example.
Ian: Categorically not we go enormous lengths to protect customer data. Cross matching engines are employed but only to help match. We don't trade against Betfair customers. Price rush is used to match bets from Sportsbook if better prices are available on the exchange.
Jeff
I think one of the real issues behind the landscape having changed is automation
More and more traders seem to be using automated strategies, and in reality many of these bots will be looking for very similar opportunities and to ultimately place very similar trades
More and more traders seem to be using automated strategies, and in reality many of these bots will be looking for very similar opportunities and to ultimately place very similar trades
Well automation has been there since near the very start of Betfair. (I'm sure PeterW will know exactly when that was). And I think it was an important part of adding liquidity and growing Betfair into the size it is now.
But there came a point whereby the bots just overloaded the system because there were no restrictions to data or transactions. At that point Betfair imposed some such as the 20 reqs/sec and 1000 transactions/hour before extra charges. I'm sure that brought some order to things.
However more recently Betfair have started to become more lenient. The new API doesn't currently have any data limits, and PC payers don't have the 1000 transaction limit anymore. I think these two things have definitely contributed to changes in the market.
I think Betfair do need to impose some limits to avoid the high frequency stuff that's also causing problems in the financial markets. There's talk of those kinds of automation being regulated more.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26637465
But there came a point whereby the bots just overloaded the system because there were no restrictions to data or transactions. At that point Betfair imposed some such as the 20 reqs/sec and 1000 transactions/hour before extra charges. I'm sure that brought some order to things.
However more recently Betfair have started to become more lenient. The new API doesn't currently have any data limits, and PC payers don't have the 1000 transaction limit anymore. I think these two things have definitely contributed to changes in the market.
I think Betfair do need to impose some limits to avoid the high frequency stuff that's also causing problems in the financial markets. There's talk of those kinds of automation being regulated more.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26637465
I think I should do a video on how markets evolve as I think they always will whatever market you are in. It's often a race to the bottom.
But, it is curious that many people are seeing a deterioration around the same date. I've deliberately not tried to put a date into peoples minds but all the feedback points to exactly the same period in which we saw a marked shift in the market.
So something or someone seemed to influence the market around this point. It could be a technical consideration or some other quirk. As I mentioned before I have discussed this with Betfair at a number of levels and also asked the necessary questions. But drawn a blank at the moment.
If anybody wants to corroborate the detail I'm happy to keep looking for an answer.
But, it is curious that many people are seeing a deterioration around the same date. I've deliberately not tried to put a date into peoples minds but all the feedback points to exactly the same period in which we saw a marked shift in the market.
So something or someone seemed to influence the market around this point. It could be a technical consideration or some other quirk. As I mentioned before I have discussed this with Betfair at a number of levels and also asked the necessary questions. But drawn a blank at the moment.
If anybody wants to corroborate the detail I'm happy to keep looking for an answer.
Jeff, thanks for doing that.
I'm unconvinced.
Quick parries to big questions are usually a red flag. There are Chinese walls within any large organisations and the right arm doesn't always know what the left is up to.
It seems revealing that Sportsbook gets mentioned so quickly. To be clear, under the new exchange-sportsbook connection there's NOTHING to stop "a bookie" (shall we say) placing "positions" in Sportsbook that may be innocently presented as liquidity bumps but which, ever so coincidentally, also "help match" (cough) outcomes that work against some exchange trading approaches.
There's clearly been some change in the markets of late. I think this is one of those changes and with a very clear intent - book wins, punter loses.
Also, betfair have often commented on broad trading approaches that are less or more profitable; for example accounts which back short (they don't make money) or long layers of horses or football underdog backers, or whatever. If aggregate customer analysis is happening and being revealed, this must mean small group or individual customer analysis also happens.
My tuppence anyway.
Other comments...?
I'm unconvinced.
Quick parries to big questions are usually a red flag. There are Chinese walls within any large organisations and the right arm doesn't always know what the left is up to.
It seems revealing that Sportsbook gets mentioned so quickly. To be clear, under the new exchange-sportsbook connection there's NOTHING to stop "a bookie" (shall we say) placing "positions" in Sportsbook that may be innocently presented as liquidity bumps but which, ever so coincidentally, also "help match" (cough) outcomes that work against some exchange trading approaches.
There's clearly been some change in the markets of late. I think this is one of those changes and with a very clear intent - book wins, punter loses.
Also, betfair have often commented on broad trading approaches that are less or more profitable; for example accounts which back short (they don't make money) or long layers of horses or football underdog backers, or whatever. If aggregate customer analysis is happening and being revealed, this must mean small group or individual customer analysis also happens.
My tuppence anyway.
Other comments...?
Its obvious they analyse profitable customers, they do it to find users who try to abuse the premium charge. Reading "Ian's" response he didn't deny they did, he just said they didn't trade based on it..
So what is this all about then Betfair?
http://www.maths.ox.ac.uk/node/18715
So what is this all about then Betfair?
http://www.maths.ox.ac.uk/node/18715
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maycontainnuts
- Posts: 90
- Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2012 5:58 pm
Nothing to stop people working at Betfair quitting then doing it?
I just think that the more Betfair tamper with the markets (Ie Cross Matching etc etc) the worse it becomes. This may not be as apparent in pre off as in play, but I think its just a matter of time.
Sure they may make money from 'skimming' the efficiencies but over time it will kill the exchange.
CEO's these days are not interesting whats going to happen in five years time, its what is happening in the ver near future they care about.
Ive met a lot of CEO's. You try selling them a multi year agreement, they are not interested.
Below is an extract of a log taken from a friends trading this afternoon.
When the automation was first created (not that long ago <2years) it had a condition to stop placing bets if the trans counter noted more than 1000 bets in the last hour. It hasnt placed a single bet today? She is planning to withdraw all her funds from BF and switch this off in the next 30 days.
(at the time of writing I just notice that the last at Leop had two under 1.1, so I expect that would have triggered)
02/04/2014 13:50:01: Market changed to Winc 2nd Apr - 14:15 2m6f Nov Hrd
02/04/2014 13:50:09: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 13:50:10: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 14:15:27: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:15:28: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 14:15:29: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 14:20:45: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:24:59: Market changed to Ling 2nd Apr - 14:25 1m Claim Stks
02/04/2014 14:25:23: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:25:25: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 14:25:25: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 14:27:00: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:34:59: Market changed to Sthl 2nd Apr - 14:35 5f Mdn Stks
02/04/2014 14:36:31: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:36:31: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 14:36:31: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 14:37:33: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:44:59: Market changed to Winc 2nd Apr - 14:45 2m Hcap Hrd
02/04/2014 14:45:18: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:45:19: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 14:45:20: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 14:49:02: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:54:59: Market changed to Ling 2nd Apr - 14:55 7f Mdn Stks
02/04/2014 14:56:46: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:56:47: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 14:56:47: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 14:58:11: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:04:59: Market changed to Sthl 2nd Apr - 15:05 5f Hcap
02/04/2014 15:05:26: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:05:28: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 15:05:28: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 15:06:28: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:14:59: Market changed to Winc 2nd Apr - 15:15 2m5f Hcap Chs
02/04/2014 15:15:24: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:15:25: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 15:15:26: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 15:15:38: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:15:40: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 15:16:23: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:16:23: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 15:16:23: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 15:21:47: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:24:59: Market changed to Ling 2nd Apr - 15:25 5f Hcap
02/04/2014 15:25:47: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:25:49: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 15:25:49: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 15:26:46: Market has been suspended
Sure they may make money from 'skimming' the efficiencies but over time it will kill the exchange.
CEO's these days are not interesting whats going to happen in five years time, its what is happening in the ver near future they care about.
Ive met a lot of CEO's. You try selling them a multi year agreement, they are not interested.
Below is an extract of a log taken from a friends trading this afternoon.
When the automation was first created (not that long ago <2years) it had a condition to stop placing bets if the trans counter noted more than 1000 bets in the last hour. It hasnt placed a single bet today? She is planning to withdraw all her funds from BF and switch this off in the next 30 days.
(at the time of writing I just notice that the last at Leop had two under 1.1, so I expect that would have triggered)
02/04/2014 13:50:01: Market changed to Winc 2nd Apr - 14:15 2m6f Nov Hrd
02/04/2014 13:50:09: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 13:50:10: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 14:15:27: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:15:28: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 14:15:29: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 14:20:45: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:24:59: Market changed to Ling 2nd Apr - 14:25 1m Claim Stks
02/04/2014 14:25:23: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:25:25: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 14:25:25: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 14:27:00: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:34:59: Market changed to Sthl 2nd Apr - 14:35 5f Mdn Stks
02/04/2014 14:36:31: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:36:31: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 14:36:31: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 14:37:33: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:44:59: Market changed to Winc 2nd Apr - 14:45 2m Hcap Hrd
02/04/2014 14:45:18: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:45:19: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 14:45:20: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 14:49:02: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:54:59: Market changed to Ling 2nd Apr - 14:55 7f Mdn Stks
02/04/2014 14:56:46: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 14:56:47: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 14:56:47: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 14:58:11: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:04:59: Market changed to Sthl 2nd Apr - 15:05 5f Hcap
02/04/2014 15:05:26: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:05:28: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 15:05:28: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 15:06:28: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:14:59: Market changed to Winc 2nd Apr - 15:15 2m5f Hcap Chs
02/04/2014 15:15:24: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:15:25: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 15:15:26: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 15:15:38: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:15:40: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 15:16:23: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:16:23: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 15:16:23: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 15:21:47: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:24:59: Market changed to Ling 2nd Apr - 15:25 5f Hcap
02/04/2014 15:25:47: Market has been suspended
02/04/2014 15:25:49: Market is in-play
02/04/2014 15:25:49: Market has been unsuspended
02/04/2014 15:26:46: Market has been suspended
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Just read half that book "flash boys" today sitting around airports. There are going to be those who don't believe dodgy practices go on, read it and say only a matter of time, those that understand it saying to themselves, that's familiar, bf asking their market makers where all the money has gone and their market makers saying that book chucked a spanner in the works! Well worth a read by the way 