Hi,
As probably several others here have had at some point, I ran into a disturbing issue today regarding the application of a reduction factor that could have had ugly consequences.
Last race at Lingfield (17:10 British time) today (2nd of March). I had a back bet on Kgari at 19, and while the market was in-play, I manually greened up by entering lay bets on Kgari at average odds of around 13. The "matched bets" page in Bet Angel indeed showed the bets being matched at those prices (backing at 19 and lay bets around 13) and the One-Click page showed a greened up profit regardless of who won.
Then, just after the race was finished (but not settled), suddenly Bet Angel starts showing that I had an exposure of a rather large potential loss (more than 10x the greened up profit I thought I had) had Kgari won (and indeed my available balance in my account was reduced by this amount until the market was finally settled). Fortunately Kgari did not win in this instance, but nevertheless realizing I was not in fact fully covered and had an unexpected exposure was rather disturbing when considering future trading.
After checking my Betfair account details, it says that a reduction factor of 29.1% was applied to my back bet, and after the reduction factor was applied (to the backing bet only), I was in fact backing only at around 13.5.
I called Betfair about this, and they explained that in this "rare" instance, they were noticed about the non-runner only after the race had finished. When I asked why the reduction factor had only been applied to the back bet, the agent informed me that In-Play bets do not get reduction factors applied.
So the question I'm left with is: if you are trading both pre-race and in-play, how can you ever be sure that your pre-race trades won't have a reduction factor applied? Because it seems that in reality they can sometimes really be apples and oranges. I can't figure out any way I could have known that what I thought was a greened up position, and what Bet Angel was indicating to me was a greened up position, was not truly in the end a fully hedged position...
Any thoughts/suggestions?
Reduction Factor Causing Unintended Exposure
Withdrawn horses are not rare, they occur in about 5% of races. Betfair in the past have often been pretty inconsistant when horses have been withdrawn. They often refer to major adjustments as rare and expceptional but often change the interpretation of how they are settled. We have seen people take a major hit from an 'exceptional' adjustment, only to see another 'exceptional' situation occur to be settled in a different manner. They went through a terrible spell some time ago where we became worried that they were waiting till after a race had finished to decide what to do, but the current situation is a lot more consistant now. They generally will not suspended the market and adjust, preferring to adjust after the race. This is better as you can still change or exit a position when you realise a horse is about to get pulled.
I think it was obvious yesterday that the horse was going to get pulled as it burst through the gates. Quite rare to get them reloaded at that point. In situations where a horse is pulled like this, then it make sense to be out clean before the off and not to carry over a trade to in-play. Your inplay exit is going to be messed up by the RF, but especially when it's a big one.
I think it was obvious yesterday that the horse was going to get pulled as it burst through the gates. Quite rare to get them reloaded at that point. In situations where a horse is pulled like this, then it make sense to be out clean before the off and not to carry over a trade to in-play. Your inplay exit is going to be messed up by the RF, but especially when it's a big one.
We've looked into this a bit further and we haven't previously seen instances where bets were just completely voided after the race went in-running. We are going to investigate a bit further and see what we can find. In the interim it probably makes sense to turn all unmatched bets to Take SP bets before the off as this will allow you bet to reach the market definately before the off.
EDIT - Misread the question?
EDIT - Misread the question?
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SamWilson82
- Posts: 95
- Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 11:23 am
I got done over by this race aswell. My own fault for going inplay in the first place but it was a shock to see an all green position turn very red at the end of the race 
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Don't really understand that point? Who is saying they had bets voided?Bet Angel wrote:We've looked into this a bit further and we haven't previously seen instances where bets were just completely voided after the race went in-running.
I personally think it is very clear how they deal with Reduction Factors, it is stated clearly in the rules and regulations.
If a withdrawal occurs and they do not have time to withdraw the runner the reduction factor will be applied to all bets made before the off on the odds taken in the win market as they would if they had time to WD the runner from the market.
Therefore if a RF of 25%, on a horse at 8.0 will become 6.0.
It clearly states RF's do not apply to inrunning bets even if the WD horse is still listed in the market.
Therefore to scratch the above trade you would be needing to lay off at 6.0 inrunning. If you were to lay off at 8.0 inrunning you would infact have a liability on the selection.
It would seem that the initial poster did not take account of the reduction factor as they were not aware of the WD, however, it is down to the individual to be aware of WD and not BF. This is why Pictures are very important as you could see that the horse was WD and therefore you could calculate the odds you needed to take. If you were not aware of the WD you would have thought all horses had run in the race.
It should also be noted that the RF is not applied to the price taken in the place market but rather the winnings.
As ever it is very important to be aware of the market rules you are dealing in before you take part in the market.
The only bets I have ever known to be voided due to a RF are those that have been placed on the WD selection.
Thanks for your replies and thoughts on the issue. For clarification, in this instance, I had taken the SP and traded out in play. No bets were voided.
Correct Andy, I was not aware of the withdrawal, and incorrectly thought WD and RF was not something I would potentially need to take into consideration with such a trade.
At the same time, it sort of also seems unreasonable for betfair to have rules which effectively require a trader to have somehow known that a reduction factor would be applied later, when at the time all trades were actually made, the same number of horses appeared to be in the race (at least according to the betfair market selections).
And additionally, as opposed to having entered into my position several minutes before the off (whereby it could be more reasonable to expect to be subject to a WD and RF), since I had taken the SP, I also incorrectly assumed that the SP that I saw I had while the race was in-play would be a price that is already adjusted for all Withdrawals that could have occurred. Because it's the only case I've ever caught notice of where a WD didn't happen before the off, and honestly, I wasn't even aware that it was possible for there to be a withdrawal after the off.
In the end, as you say, I suppose pictures are very important - basically a necessity in this instance.
Correct Andy, I was not aware of the withdrawal, and incorrectly thought WD and RF was not something I would potentially need to take into consideration with such a trade.
At the same time, it sort of also seems unreasonable for betfair to have rules which effectively require a trader to have somehow known that a reduction factor would be applied later, when at the time all trades were actually made, the same number of horses appeared to be in the race (at least according to the betfair market selections).
And additionally, as opposed to having entered into my position several minutes before the off (whereby it could be more reasonable to expect to be subject to a WD and RF), since I had taken the SP, I also incorrectly assumed that the SP that I saw I had while the race was in-play would be a price that is already adjusted for all Withdrawals that could have occurred. Because it's the only case I've ever caught notice of where a WD didn't happen before the off, and honestly, I wasn't even aware that it was possible for there to be a withdrawal after the off.
In the end, as you say, I suppose pictures are very important - basically a necessity in this instance.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
No worries - not sure where Bet Angel have got the whole void bets thing from tbh as Betfair do not void bets apart from those on the WD runner.
Just to clear up a few things, WD do not happen after the off, they are made before the off. Often a Starter can WD a horse at last second, it may not even be clear if the horse refused to race or if the starter WD while under orders. It is impossible for a horse to be WD once a race has started.
It is not just Betfair that apply this kind of rule, more traditional bookmakers also do it as often it is not possible to reform a market before the off and as such Rule 4's apply.
Most of the time BF will remove the runner but removing a selection takes time often 30 seconds or more and when a WD happens late the time taken would mean the market is not turned inplay for some time and the last few moments of the pre race market would be lost.
In the case you got caught there would have been plenty of traders who would be wanting to close out in the last few seconds, I and I am sure almost all of them would prefer that Betfair did not suspend the market in these last few seconds. Also all the backers and layer would not want it suspending in these last few moments as they wouldn't be able to get on.
Betting at SP is no different to betting in the normal market and they cant adjust that if a late WD happens just like they can't adjust the pre race bets as stated above.
It is down to you the individual to be aware of what you are betting on and at present I believe Betfair are right not to remove horses late on. What they have not done though is come up with a standard operating procedure as to when they will and when they won't do the Withdrawals.
I hope you have gone and fully read up on the rules on this matter from the Betfair R&R's.
I would be surprised if they are ever able to do instant withdrawals when you consider the complexity of removing a selection from the market must create. Unless that is possible this situation will continue and those not aware of the rules will continue to suffer but it is down to the individual to be aware of the rules.
Just to clear up a few things, WD do not happen after the off, they are made before the off. Often a Starter can WD a horse at last second, it may not even be clear if the horse refused to race or if the starter WD while under orders. It is impossible for a horse to be WD once a race has started.
It is not just Betfair that apply this kind of rule, more traditional bookmakers also do it as often it is not possible to reform a market before the off and as such Rule 4's apply.
Most of the time BF will remove the runner but removing a selection takes time often 30 seconds or more and when a WD happens late the time taken would mean the market is not turned inplay for some time and the last few moments of the pre race market would be lost.
In the case you got caught there would have been plenty of traders who would be wanting to close out in the last few seconds, I and I am sure almost all of them would prefer that Betfair did not suspend the market in these last few seconds. Also all the backers and layer would not want it suspending in these last few moments as they wouldn't be able to get on.
Betting at SP is no different to betting in the normal market and they cant adjust that if a late WD happens just like they can't adjust the pre race bets as stated above.
It is down to you the individual to be aware of what you are betting on and at present I believe Betfair are right not to remove horses late on. What they have not done though is come up with a standard operating procedure as to when they will and when they won't do the Withdrawals.
I hope you have gone and fully read up on the rules on this matter from the Betfair R&R's.
I would be surprised if they are ever able to do instant withdrawals when you consider the complexity of removing a selection from the market must create. Unless that is possible this situation will continue and those not aware of the rules will continue to suffer but it is down to the individual to be aware of the rules.
Just a simple mis-interpretation of the original question. We edited the response.andyfuller wrote:No worries - not sure where Bet Angel have got the whole void bets thing from tbh as Betfair do not void bets apart from those on the WD runner.