When looking at book percentage is it if the back side is edging out from 100 to say 102 then something must drift, does that then mean if the lay side is getting lower than 100 then something must give way to come in, is this correct?
I've had a look around but all I can find is info on odds drifting using book percentage not coming in
Could anyone help
Regards
Adam
Book Percentage
Adam,
I have written a piece on my blog about this subject. There is a link to a spreadsheet that you can play with too.
http://www.quiteamug.co.uk/?p=858
Cheers MG
I have written a piece on my blog about this subject. There is a link to a spreadsheet that you can play with too.
http://www.quiteamug.co.uk/?p=858
Cheers MG
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maycontainnuts
- Posts: 90
- Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2012 5:58 pm
Talking out your arse if you think that the book dictates prices. It's the other way around.
not been suggested that it does dictate prices, just an indicitor that a price or prices have to move out or in, if either side gets very tight.maycontainnuts wrote:Talking out your arse if you think that the book dictates prices. It's the other way around.
I think what Maycontainnuts was politely trying to say is that there is a lot of hoo haa talked about the %age book and if you ever stood beside a bookies board you would see that the only moves that take place are "concurrent" moves. It is never the case that one horse lengthens on its own, it is always accompanied by an almost equivalent move the opposite way by one or more other horses odds.
Just because a 2nd fav is drifting there is no reason to assume that the fav will now shorten; it could just as easily be a middle horses odds that shorten but in almost every case of odds alteration all odds will change at the same time.(unless you can trade in micro seconds).
I am not dissing Mug's method in saying this, just that there is a hidden angle in his trading method.
If there is a gap in the book (>100.5%) then all you can say is that "one" horse "might" move to take up the slack; equally if the book is very tight (100%) then something "might" move, then again it might not.
Just because a 2nd fav is drifting there is no reason to assume that the fav will now shorten; it could just as easily be a middle horses odds that shorten but in almost every case of odds alteration all odds will change at the same time.(unless you can trade in micro seconds).
I am not dissing Mug's method in saying this, just that there is a hidden angle in his trading method.
If there is a gap in the book (>100.5%) then all you can say is that "one" horse "might" move to take up the slack; equally if the book is very tight (100%) then something "might" move, then again it might not.
The book percentage isn't a method. My point is merely that when a book is slack there is more room for odds to move with this. If the book has no slack then for something to move then something else has to move to accommodate it to keep the balance. This can happen to any runner or as James rightly points out a combination of runners. It is almost impossible to predict which of the runners will move.
But if there is a bigger gap in the book, it is possible that a price can move within without having any effect on any other. It's a small piece of the complex picture.
The piece that I wrote about this pretty much says exactly what James says here
"Just because a 2nd fav is drifting there is no reason to assume that the fav will now shorten; it could just as easily be a middle horses odds that shorten but in almost every case of odds alteration all odds will change at the same time.(unless you can trade in micro seconds)."
Except that sometimes there can be delay in the alteration - because of the gap in the book
As Nuts eludes to, The odds form the book. But the volumes of money at those odds may change depending how Betfair are manipulating them via the X matching algorithm. More and more we see positions where a big amount comes in and moves a price 6 or 7 ticks. This cannot happen unless there is gap in the book and Betfair use the X matching.
The whole book percentage debate is full of if's and but's. It's no way a method to predict price movements. But I think it's worthwhile trying to understand it's effect.
But if there is a bigger gap in the book, it is possible that a price can move within without having any effect on any other. It's a small piece of the complex picture.
The piece that I wrote about this pretty much says exactly what James says here
"Just because a 2nd fav is drifting there is no reason to assume that the fav will now shorten; it could just as easily be a middle horses odds that shorten but in almost every case of odds alteration all odds will change at the same time.(unless you can trade in micro seconds)."
Except that sometimes there can be delay in the alteration - because of the gap in the book
As Nuts eludes to, The odds form the book. But the volumes of money at those odds may change depending how Betfair are manipulating them via the X matching algorithm. More and more we see positions where a big amount comes in and moves a price 6 or 7 ticks. This cannot happen unless there is gap in the book and Betfair use the X matching.
The whole book percentage debate is full of if's and but's. It's no way a method to predict price movements. But I think it's worthwhile trying to understand it's effect.