Do you also feel a great change in the market?

[Ica73]

Hi all,

I am a horse trading scalper from 8 years about and I live of this from 8 years.

I obtained my max succes from march 2012 to july 2013 but all past years I can tell without dubt, that was very good years for me.

In this 8 years i changed various time my stile of scalping and the market changed many times.... The scalper job's is adapt to the changes and this I have always do.

But I see that from september 2013 some of big is changed.... I think that this is not a natural change of market.... so I must tell you that from september my results get down of about 60%... month after month I waith for better period, but nothing changed ultil 12/13 of April 2014....

Yes, at the same time of Italians go out, I find the market impossile e to trade... from 13 april I lost for 7 days in 10 day of trading, and it never happen to me...

My question is: only me get this big difficoult or you too?

Betfore to reply, you must know that:

1) I am a big trader and I my stake is minimum 1000 euro to 3000/5000 in the more liquidity races.
2) I trade usually first 3 fav

To defend me from 13 april, after this 10 days, I reduced consistently my stake in last 3 days i get +150, +160 and today +400 and I am very far to my normal gain.

What happened?

[steven1976]

I find it very predictable now. Do you sit very close to the money to scalp or do you put money a few ticks away feom the money?

I find that my first position is just bait to scratch, to get another position behind matched, and then my position behind that..... the biggest problemfor scalpers is how a market can turn a 20k position instantly the second you get tickled.

[Ica73]

Hi steven,

I think that the question isn't consider the trading or scalping stile, but understand if all of you, get/feel the same big changes that I get, or if only me get this difficoult from 13 of april.

[steven1976]

For me no, same for a long time and no change. However, I guess it reacts different on stake sizes also so i guess it would be better for other largers scalpers to answer the question. I only play around with small stakes but a lot of trades. The market may react more aggressively against larger scalp trades or more defensive depending upon other positions you have also in the market?

[steven1976]

Nice to see lots of seasoned scalping pros helpful as usual! Thats what i love about forums.

[jimrobo]

I meant to post on Saturday but I didn't get chance.

I absolutely feel your pain!! I was pretty much in exactly the same situation around Christmas. I made the decision to take a step back though and go back into the office.

I am worse off financially but now at least I have a steady income and I don't have to worry as much about the future. I still trade the weekends and from today the evening teaching!

For the guys still doing it fair play to you! I wish you the best but I suspect it's going to get worse before it gets any better

[giulio2010]

I saw the differences between the 7th of april to the 23rd, scalping for me was out of question for most trades, there were some scalping opportunitys ofc but I felt no confidence to tackle them. I had to lower down my stakes and get involved a bit more on volatile markets.
From the 24th Betfair decided to block ( not close ) my UK account, they set my limit exposure to 0.00 but, still able to connect with a trading software to my UK account and follow up the odds live. What striked me most was the odds movements from UK betfair compare to Italian betfair. I would have thought that italian had a slightly different view of football compare to English, Spanish, Germans, etc, so having just italian money on the market, you would rationally think that the odds would be a bit different when you gamble popular teams like Juventus, Milan, Napoli, etc...I was taught that the odds are made by statistically probability but, also I was taught that on Betfair the odds can change because of differences of opinions between gamblers and italian have their own opinion about football like every other countrys have their own opinion.
For example, Benfica-Juventus last thursday.
I opened my UK account with the help of the software, then I set an other computer next to me where I have opened the betfair italia page and refreshed manually the odds constantly, well despite that the most supported team was Juventus, despite that the money all come from Italy ( not portugal ), despite everything could imagine, the odds moved equally on both exchange and with the precision of a surgeon. You may think that arbitrage was the cause of that but, if you have a UK active account you are not able to have an italian account or viceversa unless you may bend the rules with a dummy account of perhaps there are some rules I still have to discover.

[steven1976]

giulio, you will probably find if you do the same with BD you will also see the markets almost perfectly in sync with BF also if you open that at the same time.

To Ica73, what are the big changes you feel have happened? I presume you are willing to share as your asking the question?

[giulio2010]

giulio, you will probably find if you do the same with BD you will also see the markets almost perfectly in sync with BF also if you open that at the same time.

BD is like betfair, the money come from the same source and aknowledge. Betfair italia having just italian users italian money and italian aknowledge could have differences, like the rest of local bookmakers compare to international bookmakers. I dont think is normal at all but, that's only my opinion.

[steven1976]

I understand what you are saying. Im trying to say i wouldnt be surprised if the markets arent all coming from the same source. I remember someone getting banned feom smarkets at the request of their market makers.

[Euler]

We detected a change in the markets this time last year. The thing that surprised us was that it was overnight. We still don't know the cause.

[BJGardner]

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