Systems not what they were
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
A big part of the book is the importance of speed actually as Euler mentions. The amount of money spent just to increase the speed by the optic cables, shorter cables in the offices to be closer to the exchange .....
As I say, I'm not sure about the conspiracy theories. Extracting stats for the systems I've been using on Horseracebase, the losses based on industry SPs come out roughly in line with what I've been actually losing on my back and lay bets, which would mean that any manipulation by BF has been big enough to influence industry SPs. Maybe it has been.
Anyway, I'm going to monitor my systems on HRB, without staking, for April to June. If they suddenly become profitable it would tend to support the BF trading against clients theory and I would cautiously come back in again - on Betdaq (any views on whether they're at it too)?
If the systems remain unprofitable in the test period it tends to suggest that maybe they've had their day, too many people doing it and coming up with the same selections, etc.
Thanks again for everyone's responses to my post - it's a great forum with some very shrewd people whose views are always good to hear.
All the best
Trickle
Anyway, I'm going to monitor my systems on HRB, without staking, for April to June. If they suddenly become profitable it would tend to support the BF trading against clients theory and I would cautiously come back in again - on Betdaq (any views on whether they're at it too)?
If the systems remain unprofitable in the test period it tends to suggest that maybe they've had their day, too many people doing it and coming up with the same selections, etc.
Thanks again for everyone's responses to my post - it's a great forum with some very shrewd people whose views are always good to hear.
All the best
Trickle
Interesting perspective, pointing out that the number of bets has risen sixfold since 2010:
Think about that growth in bets again (5mm to 30mm over four years). Has Betfair’s profitability grown by the same 6x factor over the same period ? Not a chance. So it’s highly unlikely that growth in bets is driven by retail (since there’s no associated increase in profitability).
Nope, much more likely that bet growth is being driven by a massive increase in high- frequency trading by technology savvy syndicates; remember that the marginal cost of submitting an extra bet electronically is close to zero. My guess is that there some kind of Pareto principle at work here, with 80% of the growth in bets being supplied by 20% of the users.
In fact it’s probably even more extreme than that, with only a handful of syndicates being responsible for that growth; target the top 100 syndicates and I bet you could take away 50%+ of Betfair’s volume.
From http://www.sportstradingnetwork.com/erl ... -whatsapp/
Think about that growth in bets again (5mm to 30mm over four years). Has Betfair’s profitability grown by the same 6x factor over the same period ? Not a chance. So it’s highly unlikely that growth in bets is driven by retail (since there’s no associated increase in profitability).
Nope, much more likely that bet growth is being driven by a massive increase in high- frequency trading by technology savvy syndicates; remember that the marginal cost of submitting an extra bet electronically is close to zero. My guess is that there some kind of Pareto principle at work here, with 80% of the growth in bets being supplied by 20% of the users.
In fact it’s probably even more extreme than that, with only a handful of syndicates being responsible for that growth; target the top 100 syndicates and I bet you could take away 50%+ of Betfair’s volume.
From http://www.sportstradingnetwork.com/erl ... -whatsapp/
Ferru123 wrote:Interesting perspective, pointing out that the number of bets has risen sixfold since 2010:
Think about that growth in bets again (5mm to 30mm over four years). Has Betfair’s profitability grown by the same 6x factor over the same period ? Not a chance. So it’s highly unlikely that growth in bets is driven by retail (since there’s no associated increase in profitability).
Nope, much more likely that bet growth is being driven by a massive increase in high- frequency trading by technology savvy syndicates; remember that the marginal cost of submitting an extra bet electronically is close to zero. My guess is that there some kind of Pareto principle at work here, with 80% of the growth in bets being supplied by 20% of the users.
In fact it’s probably even more extreme than that, with only a handful of syndicates being responsible for that growth; target the top 100 syndicates and I bet you could take away 50%+ of Betfair’s volume.
From http://www.sportstradingnetwork.com/erl ... -whatsapp/
Interesting link, thanks for that
I really like the thinking behind the article.
For me the future of trading exchnages will never be betfair or betdaq/Ladbrokes, but if someone somewhere like What'sApp without shareholders can set up a trading exchange, this will be the perfect outcome. No premium charge and no trading against users as betfair does (my opinion anyway) and no connection with ripping off mug punters a la betfair's sportsbook
There was something to me even more powerful in the article.
Growth in bets vs revenue.
If they also charged 1 c or 1 p per placed or cancelled bet? Essentially dropping their 1000 limit per hour and starting charging at zero. Enables them to capture additional revenue. Lots of exchanges charge fees in this way (and some of them controversially lower them for high frequency traders because of the liquidity benefits).
Would cost me about approx $10 per hour because I am always right on the 1000 limit.
I'd much rather pay that vs PC.
Might also limit flashing spoofers etc. In my day job I hear about traders "diving" into what they think is a deep pool and finding a mirage of a sheet of water and smashing into the concrete of a empty pool. Sound familiar. Charging for placed and cancelled bets (orders) can help with this. As can making order "stick" for a minimum period before they can be cancelled (although I don't advocate for that myself, given I'm prone to the odd error that needs to be cancelled before worse trouble ensues).
Thoughts?
Growth in bets vs revenue.
If they also charged 1 c or 1 p per placed or cancelled bet? Essentially dropping their 1000 limit per hour and starting charging at zero. Enables them to capture additional revenue. Lots of exchanges charge fees in this way (and some of them controversially lower them for high frequency traders because of the liquidity benefits).
Would cost me about approx $10 per hour because I am always right on the 1000 limit.
I'd much rather pay that vs PC.
Might also limit flashing spoofers etc. In my day job I hear about traders "diving" into what they think is a deep pool and finding a mirage of a sheet of water and smashing into the concrete of a empty pool. Sound familiar. Charging for placed and cancelled bets (orders) can help with this. As can making order "stick" for a minimum period before they can be cancelled (although I don't advocate for that myself, given I'm prone to the odd error that needs to be cancelled before worse trouble ensues).
Thoughts?
Last edited by gazuty on Mon Apr 07, 2014 10:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
Hell yes. Flat tax absolutely where betfair should be and will hopefully revert to.gazuty wrote:If they also charged 1 c or 1 p per placed or cancelled bet?
I'd much rather pay that vs PC.
Thoughts?
Whether it's 5% commission or cost per trade, doesn't really matter for me. As long as the result is those taking a million/year from the exchange pay 50k tax or those taking a thousand/year pay fifty quid.
Perhaps betfair will revert to something like the above when the betfair staff profile rebalances?
The energy for the premium charge came from bookie staff betfair recruited, back in the day when they thought Will Hill and Ladbrokes etc were going to die. And those people came with a deep hatred of winning accounts, and a belief the book must always win. When they saw winning accounts could not be stopped by manipulating the book they came up with premium charge.
Now betfair staff are getting down to a couple of hundred and their market share is less than Ladbrokes and Will Hill etc there might be hope as these staff leave...
xitian wrote "The new API doesn't currently have any data limits, and PC payers don't have the 1000 transaction limit anymore"
Is that so at the moment about the 1000-limit? Betfair had a test period about it. Have they continued it, taking it away for PC-payers?
The sentence "the new API ... any data limits" I don't understand. Is the 20-requests per second not in use anymore or what is that about?
About, systems not what they were, sure, I have been in this game from the beginning and nowadays I am making by far less. Actually, before I could make manually with the browser more than I now make with sophisticated automation and many computers! The biggest change is that Betfair is now taking money from their winning customers and also study the activity of these accounts.
Is that so at the moment about the 1000-limit? Betfair had a test period about it. Have they continued it, taking it away for PC-payers?
The sentence "the new API ... any data limits" I don't understand. Is the 20-requests per second not in use anymore or what is that about?
About, systems not what they were, sure, I have been in this game from the beginning and nowadays I am making by far less. Actually, before I could make manually with the browser more than I now make with sophisticated automation and many computers! The biggest change is that Betfair is now taking money from their winning customers and also study the activity of these accounts.
I'm not sure about the 1000 transaction limit. I have not heard news of them re-introducing the limit for PC payers. I also can't remember if it's all PC payers or higher PC payers.kemabet wrote:xitian wrote "The new API doesn't currently have any data limits, and PC payers don't have the 1000 transaction limit anymore"
Is that so at the moment about the 1000-limit? Betfair had a test period about it. Have they continued it, taking it away for PC-payers?
The sentence "the new API ... any data limits" I don't understand. Is the 20-requests per second not in use anymore or what is that about?
There are no request limits at all on the new API-NG "until at least 12 Jan 2015". However I expect after that it will be reviewed. I'd expect them to put in a limit or introduce further costs.
See https://api.developer.betfair.com/servi ... G+Overview
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
When was the removal of the transaction limit for PC payers?
Just curious.
Just curious.
Wow if the 1000 is gone it is game on for me.
But I don't see anything about it here. http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/
What I do see is the little bit of protection from offsetting regular commission and implied commission - which I have already factored in and allow myself to exceed 1000 a bit but not a lot.
But I don't see anything about it here. http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/
What I do see is the little bit of protection from offsetting regular commission and implied commission - which I have already factored in and allow myself to exceed 1000 a bit but not a lot.
I checked my emails, and it seems it was mentioned in the Aug 2013 Premium Account newsletter. I can confirm it is/was for HIGHER level PC payers only.andyfuller wrote:When was the removal of the transaction limit for PC payers?
Just curious.
https://promotions.betfair.com/betfair-newsletter-lp/#3