Chester 14:15 7th May - Horse profiling

[JollyGreen]

I may have been on here a few times and moaned about how a jockey rides a race or how a horse is not placed correctly in a race. Who remembers Dawn Approach in last year's Derby? I said he wouldn;t stay the trip as his was a miler and sure enough the horse pulled like crazy and his jockey Kevin Manning could do nothing. He could not be blamed for the ride on that horse.

Fast forward to the Jockey Club Stakes last weekend and we see a similar situation. Kevin Manning was riding hot favourite Trading Leather, a Group 1 horse in a Group 2 race with no penalty. On all know ratings he was anything from 7-10 lbs better than the opposition. The horse has shown all his best form when he's allowed to bowl along in front or very close to the lead. He struck me as the perfect Back to Lay horse. They jumped from the stalls and dawdled along so Trading Leather was pulling for his head. The race was lost at that point because he was wasting energy. So is the jockey blameless in this race? Well I have to say a very big NO. In this race Manning was riding a true 1m4f horse who was far superior to his rivals. The sectionals showed he should have made the running at his own sensible pace. The horse likes to front run so it wasn't as if he was breaking the mould. I don't think you are likely to see a worst ride than that one.

So today we have Terrific running in the race and after profiling the horse it is fairly clear how he should be ridden. Have a look at the following as I am sure you will see the profile. The top letter show the race running style H=Held up P=Prominent L=Led This is shown in chronological order left being oldest

HLLH
0113

So clearly this is a horse that prefers to bowl along and whilst this is a small sample size it highlights the likely horse type. The two races where he led he won the race. At Chester a front runner is often at an advantage provided of course the jockey sets a correct pace. I am keen to see how young Joseph O'Brien decides to ride the race today, he is drawn in 5 but over this distance of 1m3f the draw offers no real advantage. The biggest problem is getting trapped wide as the horse then has to cover more distance and it's easier for them to go even wider or lose their running balance/rhythm. There is another horse called GrooveJet who also likes to front run so it makes it even more interesting.

I am trying a Back to Lay strategy and will be watching the start with great interest!

[JollyGreen]

Quite simply if a normal person in a normal job offered that sort of performance to their boss they would be sacked on the spot. As soon as I saw young O'Brien drop in behind I knew any chance he had was gone! I had profited pre-race but I did go in again for the BTL strategy. I saw the eejit take a pull and I hit lay immediately to close for a 1 tick profit.

Seriously though the winner is 19lbs inferior to Terrific and even if you take 50% of that figure it's still 8-9lbs and the result suggests the advantage was with the winner and not the other way round!

I always say if jockeys had a big brain they wouldn't get those small safety helmets on!

I hope it didn't cost of any of you too much money.

JG

[honeymill]

Well read, Mr Green. From my observation, Aidan O'Brien tends to run his fancied horses from off the pace, which has annoyed punters at times. But then again, he has pulled off so many spectacular wins doing so.

[JollyGreen]

Well read, Mr Green. From my observation, Aidan O'Brien tends to run his fancied horses from off the pace, which has annoyed punters at times. But then again, he has pulled off so many spectacular wins doing so.

I understand that but you'd think they would realise Chester is a specialist track. He pulled in behind, fair enough, perhaps he couldn't go the pace, but instead of moving up down the back when he had the chance he pulled wide so he had to go all the way around them, travelling further and trying to overcome the curve! It was never going to happen.

If you watch most jockeys they always seem to believe they are on a rocket machine with after burners at their disposal. They all get caught out but it seems they never learn, if you put your hand in the flame it burns like **** and putting it back in with scar tissue will not prevent it burning like **** again!!

Mind you they have some way to go to beat the shittiest ride of all time on Dancing Brave by Greville Starky!

[JollyGreen]

What I also meant to add is why do they always want to try and reinvent the wheel? They have success with a certain running style and then for some crazy reason that only they can think of, they totally change things. The horse gets stuffed and they say "ehhh we thought we'd try something different and it didn't work"

It's like calling tails when you know it's a double headed coin.....ehhhh well you never know!