Jeff
PeterLe wrote: my thinking was that all I needed was the next goal to be by city and on average I would expect City to be more likely to score that Watford.
FA CUP 2013/14
If you were to trade in that kind of situation 1,000 times, I'm sure you'd get far more winners than losers. But whether the wins would be big enough in size to pay for the losses is questionable, given that the market will have priced in the fact that City are more likely to score next than Watford.
Jeff
Jeff
I cant remember the exact odds, but I think city were tradin at about 5.3. After the goal I think I greened up at about 2.2? So at that rate (on average) you could have afforded for city to score less on average and still return a profit.
in short if you had used 100 stakes, if city scored next, you win 120 green (inc three scalps of more that one tick) if the opposition scored next you would lose 100
Id rather have my money on city.
By the way, I don't trade football very often, it's just not my thing, so I stick to what I'm good at. when it was pointed out by Euler, it just seemed too good an opportunity to miss.
in short if you had used 100 stakes, if city scored next, you win 120 green (inc three scalps of more that one tick) if the opposition scored next you would lose 100
Id rather have my money on city.
By the way, I don't trade football very often, it's just not my thing, so I stick to what I'm good at. when it was pointed out by Euler, it just seemed too good an opportunity to miss.
Yes I suppose so Jeff.
I just had a quick look at the P&L.
I scalped at 5.1, 5.2 and 5.3 (Back) and Laid at 5.0, 5.0 and 5.1 (5 ticks at 0.1 = 0.5 (not 60% as I mentioned above)
The fourth back went in at 5.4 and was matched, the lay went in at 5.2 but the market had gone up (by this time I had switched back to the racing). I then greened up at 2.68 when I returned to the market
I didn't really think about what I was doing at the time.
As I dont really trade the football, it would be interesting to see if anyone else traded this and what action they took>?
I know Peter traded the draw (i can't remember what the odds were at the time), but I bet they dropped considerably after that first city goal?
Peter did you green up after the first city goal?
I just had a quick look at the P&L.
I scalped at 5.1, 5.2 and 5.3 (Back) and Laid at 5.0, 5.0 and 5.1 (5 ticks at 0.1 = 0.5 (not 60% as I mentioned above)
The fourth back went in at 5.4 and was matched, the lay went in at 5.2 but the market had gone up (by this time I had switched back to the racing). I then greened up at 2.68 when I returned to the market
I didn't really think about what I was doing at the time.
As I dont really trade the football, it would be interesting to see if anyone else traded this and what action they took>?
I know Peter traded the draw (i can't remember what the odds were at the time), but I bet they dropped considerably after that first city goal?
Peter did you green up after the first city goal?
Manchester City v Chelsea
Sheffield Utd or Fulham v Notts Forest or Preston
Arsenal v Liverpool
Brighton & Hove Albion v Hull City
Cardiff City v Wigan Athletic
Sheffield Wednesday v Charlton Athletic
Sunderland v Southampton
Everton v Swansea City
The draw has really opened up for clubs outside the top 4
Sheffield Utd or Fulham v Notts Forest or Preston
Arsenal v Liverpool
Brighton & Hove Albion v Hull City
Cardiff City v Wigan Athletic
Sheffield Wednesday v Charlton Athletic
Sunderland v Southampton
Everton v Swansea City
The draw has really opened up for clubs outside the top 4
-
superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
super blades 
pathetic how the majority of PL teams treat the cup - they're not gonna win anything else - and sad how money (aka premier league survival) is everything these days.
f*ck em. UTB.
pathetic how the majority of PL teams treat the cup - they're not gonna win anything else - and sad how money (aka premier league survival) is everything these days.
f*ck em. UTB.
This has to be an all-time classic commentary - Check out 87th minute
Fulham v Sheffield United - live!
http://gu.com/p/3meyf/tw via @guardian
Fulham v Sheffield United - live!
http://gu.com/p/3meyf/tw via @guardian
