I would imagine there are a lot less profitable punters than there are profitable traders? I know at least half a dozen genuine profitable traders and I know no profitable punters?
Its a fine line anyway
Zen: A question for you..If you knew that you could earn lets say, £50K a year by hard work and dedication; forgetting all your preconceived ideas and knuckling down, would you do it?
This will involve sitting at your screen, note taking and non of the excitement you feel when punting.
Trading at random
When I lived in Jersey for a period of time, I knew a guy who was a professional punter.PeterLe wrote:I would imagine there are a lot less profitable punters than there are profitable traders? I know at least half a dozen genuine profitable traders and I know no profitable punters?
Its a fine line anyway
However, his home office was just extraordinary - it was packed with results, data & analysis. He would spend ages studying form, analysing results and would only punt on what he thought was good value
Even though he never traded, his minsdet was that of a trader as opposed to a punter
He left Jersey and emigrated to Australia, so no idea what became of him
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steven1976
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- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
I guess Alan Woods would come to mind as a punter who did well at value betting.
How many of you have tested 'trading at random'?
If so, what criteria did you use?
The questions that come to mind are:
Did you ask for a price?
Did you take the price?
Is this based on single tick scalping or a number of ticks?
Where did you set the stop?
If say you're seeking 2 ticks did you have a 2 tick stop...etc?
If so, what criteria did you use?
The questions that come to mind are:
Did you ask for a price?
Did you take the price?
Is this based on single tick scalping or a number of ticks?
Where did you set the stop?
If say you're seeking 2 ticks did you have a 2 tick stop...etc?
Curiously Yen missed the point I was trying to make about the £50's on the street. But curiously missing the point more or less reinforces the point I was trying to make. Not that it's easy, but even if you show somebody a very obvious opportunity they very often don't take it.
Actually Peter, I always regarded you as a successful punter rather than a trader, because you said you didn't use stop-loss and you were mainly using In-Play strategies.PeterLe wrote:I would imagine there are a lot less profitable punters than there are profitable traders? I know at least half a dozen genuine profitable traders and I know no profitable punters?
Its a fine line anyway
I guess so, yeah, but I do find hard work (or any work for that matter) a pain-in-the-backside - especially after getting a big lottery winZen: A question for you..If you knew that you could earn lets say, £50K a year by hard work and dedication; forgetting all your preconceived ideas and knuckling down, would you do it?
This will involve sitting at your screen, note taking and non of the excitement you feel when punting.
I'm a trained programmer you know (Java) so I could , I feel, eventually code up an application to win some money in pre-race, unfortunately, I can see the thing is going to need virtual bloody artificial-intelligence to overcome all the nonsense that goes on in the pre-race.
I should have simply stuck to In-play like you.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
You need to move on from the lottery win mate. Dont want to blow my own trumpet but i earned a similar amount last month outside of BF and I can assure you there are people earning more on bf than that in a month:D Your already fighting a loosing battle on the horses for short term movements.
The amount of hours i spent on bf compared to my work is silly looking back. It took me a long time to realise they were hours ill never get back but in my sad little life I dont have much more to do in the evenings so I still play with tiny amounts for the fun. I put a lot of trades through the market so I do feel the pain and understand what you see and I also try to give out a similar message to newbies to "be careful!" I know guys who make good money doing many different things on bf but with a small bank, a lot of the time the odds are stacked up against you! That doesnt mean, if you put 1000 quid in the market it will scare it.
The amount of hours i spent on bf compared to my work is silly looking back. It took me a long time to realise they were hours ill never get back but in my sad little life I dont have much more to do in the evenings so I still play with tiny amounts for the fun. I put a lot of trades through the market so I do feel the pain and understand what you see and I also try to give out a similar message to newbies to "be careful!" I know guys who make good money doing many different things on bf but with a small bank, a lot of the time the odds are stacked up against you! That doesnt mean, if you put 1000 quid in the market it will scare it.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Out of interest are you using 50 pounds prerace?
Zen, Im not a punter. the only time I have a bet is on the National..and even then its a max of £20 (usually on Jolly's selectionsZenyatta wrote:Actually Peter, I always regarded you as a successful punter rather than a trader, because you said you didn't use stop-loss and you were mainly using In-Play strategies.PeterLe wrote:I would imagine there are a lot less profitable punters than there are profitable traders? I know at least half a dozen genuine profitable traders and I know no profitable punters?
Its a fine line anyway
I guess so, yeah, but I do find hard work (or any work for that matter) a pain-in-the-backside - especially after getting a big lottery winZen: A question for you..If you knew that you could earn lets say, £50K a year by hard work and dedication; forgetting all your preconceived ideas and knuckling down, would you do it?
This will involve sitting at your screen, note taking and non of the excitement you feel when punting.
I'm a trained programmer you know (Java) so I could , I feel, eventually code up an application to win some money in pre-race, unfortunately, I can see the thing is going to need virtual bloody artificial-intelligence to overcome all the nonsense that goes on in the pre-race.
I should have simply stuck to In-play like you.
This year I just put a bet on for the kids and missus.
IMHO, unless you have a serious edge, the average man on the street won't make it punting.
I work in IT too and I expect your fairly well paid, so maybe you dont want/need this as much as you say? There will be lads reading these blogs who have two kids and a healthy mortgage around their neck. I know Ive been there.
Over the years, its fair to say that the vast majority of my profits were auto related. Something changed in the market 6 - 12 months ago and the auto profits started to dry up. This wasn't just me, if you read other forums related to software similar to Betangel, you see the same story over and over again.
I decided to focus on pre race. I know what Peter is saying about the £50 scenario, but its not quite that simple. In fact, its bloody hard work.
However, it is achievable. It is achievable (the repeat isn't a mistake)
I won't say what my best months were on auto, but when you have earned that much a month, it is very hard to discipline yourself to start making next to bugger all/race.
This is what I did.
The blog post £10 trader stuck in my mind. I thought "What about starting from scratch and rebuilding a new bank". Why do I do this? Well; in mind when I know Im playing with betfairs money, it suddenly becomes easier. You feel less scared of losing it.
I used a single account for manual trading only. Results dont lie and its easier to track when you have just one account. I kept a record for the first 130 odd days (see graph, I've removed the detail, its just the trend I want to illustrate). The red line is profit, the blue line denotes stakes. I dont bother keeping those records now as I have withdrew my original bank from this account. Im now playing with just my profits.
Its slow progress, but its progress. This last week, i have learned two big things from the market which will serve me week going forward.
I have just checked my P&L. Since yesterday, I have traded 43 Horses racing markets. 34 wins (biggest win £70.92), 7 Losses (Biggest loss -£6.58) and two scratches. I dont know how this compares with some of the full time guys, but Im happy with that. It can only get better.
I made more trading on auto, but this feels sweeter. (yes the auto is starting to make a turnaround again ?)
When I get my first 4 fig day from manual trading, Im going to post it on here.
I know its hard to trade. If it were simple, we would all be rich - that's impossible. New traders should tread carefully i agree.
Each year we see new forum members come and go, some last a week others last a year.
I dont know what the single most important trait is for a trader, but I'd put my money on hardwork. That's the 'secret'
Life's too short Zen, you're either in or out. If you're in, put 101% in. If you're out then stop moaning!!
Regards
Peter
Edit: You know, when I think about it. When I first went on Peters course in 2007, all i wanted to know was if it was possible. I knew that if it was possible, then I could do it as well. I was prepared to work at it.
When I met Peter and some of the others on the course, I discovered it was possible.
Why do I tell you this? Well, if I had logged on to this forum when I was first starting and read your post, I may never have even tried.
having passed the higher PC limit, I can tell you; that would have been a real shame and my family would be the worse off for it. Truly
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My point with the £50 in the street example, wasn't saying it's easy, it was saying that even if you show somebody exactly what to do, when to do it, some still won't do it!
Back to the original post in the thread. You can't lose much if you trade at random so it's the base for all strategies I explore.
This time last year I had an idea on a new sport. I messed around at random and lost a small amount but kept refining it. A year later it's now a fully fledged strategy that should yield five figures this year. Every week I have ten different things or so I am working on or looking at. Lots go nowhere. But you don't need many to make it worthwhile. Even if you can't make it pay the knowledge you collect will most likely come in use at some other time.
But you have do it, because no about of data mining or poking around will magically produce a wonderful new strategy. Only practical application to the market and experience of that will achieve progress.
Back to the original post in the thread. You can't lose much if you trade at random so it's the base for all strategies I explore.
This time last year I had an idea on a new sport. I messed around at random and lost a small amount but kept refining it. A year later it's now a fully fledged strategy that should yield five figures this year. Every week I have ten different things or so I am working on or looking at. Lots go nowhere. But you don't need many to make it worthwhile. Even if you can't make it pay the knowledge you collect will most likely come in use at some other time.
But you have do it, because no about of data mining or poking around will magically produce a wonderful new strategy. Only practical application to the market and experience of that will achieve progress.
Not sure if anyone will find this interesting, but I'll share it anyway..
From time to time I like to check the market and I wanted to test a theory - I ran a scalping test today on a spare account.
30 markets
591 bets
Entry Time : 180 Secs
Total Stakes: £5,648
The stakes were variable based on liability
P&L: + £8.12 (after commission)
Unmatched bets converted to take SP 3 seconds before the off
9 races were <0, 21 Positive (4 out of 6 races at Ballin were negative, very volatile this evening and someone was trying to manipulate the prices with 5 figure stakes!)
Over 90+% of the losses came from just three races (so in theory, it would have been possible to manually manage these)
It ran unaided and I checked it from time to time to check it was going well
regards
Peter
From time to time I like to check the market and I wanted to test a theory - I ran a scalping test today on a spare account.
30 markets
591 bets
Entry Time : 180 Secs
Total Stakes: £5,648
The stakes were variable based on liability
P&L: + £8.12 (after commission)
Unmatched bets converted to take SP 3 seconds before the off
9 races were <0, 21 Positive (4 out of 6 races at Ballin were negative, very volatile this evening and someone was trying to manipulate the prices with 5 figure stakes!
)Over 90+% of the losses came from just three races (so in theory, it would have been possible to manually manage these)
It ran unaided and I checked it from time to time to check it was going well
regards
Peter