It's been some time since my last post, a mixture of ill health...again...and then some projects.
We are currently working with the guys at Proform and we're hoping to devise a set-up to identify horses that are likely to drift or steam. I have spent many hours in front of the PC sifting through data and it seems promising. In the last couple of data runs it has found many horses where the price steams in by 15-20 ticks, sometimes more.
So where is this leading? The aim is to sort the wheat from the chaff and today I just had to show an example. The Racing Post is good at writing totally irrelevant comments and today's is a classic.
The 14:45 Nottingham offers Dubara Reef as a qualifier BUT and it is a BIG BUT - the ground has to be a worry. If you check the winning form of this horse is shows a bias towards good ground. I would suggest Good/Soft would be okay but anything softer may not suit. Now I am not saying he cannot win on softer ground but I would add the caveat should he win on this ground he would be the best of a bad bunch with all runners being unsuited by softer ground.
If you read the RP comment it says "the return to testing ground should suit him"
If you use their own data it shows he has run 5 times on soft ground and won just once so how can that comment make sense?
He's priced at 6.2 which is about right based on form but look at the early price! So the system can find movers but obviously the amount of money you can get matched is low. There is still a chance to trade this horse though with a Back to Lay (BTL) strategy. This horse has a featherweight on his back, I wouldn't worry about him being 2lb out of the handicap as he's plummeted down the weights. He has won off 66 and today he is off 49! He is an habitual front runner so if he breaks well today he should go close enough to make his price contract.
A word of caution. If he breaks well but the jockey takes a pull and buries him in the field then get out as he is unlikely to win using that style of running.
Good luck, small stakes and enjoy!