Peter w posted this link the other day regarding courtsiding..
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ins ... s-betting/
Do betfair Trade their own markets?
Courtsiding by people not connected to BF, is not the same thing being discussed here
Just for the record, I have nothing against courtsiders. They are using their location and technology to get an edge over the competition.......hold on a moment......isn't that why we use BA, sophisticated bots and VPS connections - to get an edge over the competition?
Just for the record, I have nothing against courtsiders. They are using their location and technology to get an edge over the competition.......hold on a moment......isn't that why we use BA, sophisticated bots and VPS connections - to get an edge over the competition?
OK, let me put it another way.LeTiss 4pm wrote:Courtsiding by people not connected to BF, is not the same thing being discussed here
There seems to be reasonable evidence that there are people who are not subject to the 5 second delay on tennis. If there is a global 5 second delay on tennis bets into the exchange then I cannot see how the money on Betfair can be one second ahead of a fast satellite feed that is close to true live.
No matter where the punter is located, if there is a global 5 second delay on tennis the money should arrive on the exchange after the pictures from the fast satellite feed. However, this is not the case which suggests some people are not subject to the 5 second delay.
If there are people who are not subject to this 5 second delay, are these people Betfairs own in play traders?
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Will Sharpe
- Posts: 68
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 9:02 am
I think you may be stretching it if you you assume that the feed is fast based on the delay compared to Eurosport.dogform wrote:I was watching a fast satellite tennis feed yesterday and today from Roland Garros that was quite close to live, it was around 8.8 seconds ahead of Eurosport (non HD). Even at that minimal delay the satellite feed was one second behind the money on Betfair.
It has been said many times that satellite transmissions are prone to delays. The signal first has to make it through the broadcasting center/equipment to some kind of encoder before it is transmitted to the satellite, there's your first delay.
The encoder then operates with some kind of buffering algorithm that may add 2-5 seconds delay. Add encryption of the signal to that and then the signal has to be sent to the satellite and down over some kind of uplink, that will add to the delay.
When you receive the signal from your dish, your box will most likely buffer the signal and decrypt it before it is displayed on the TV.
If that the total delay isn't +5s I'd be very surprised
All needed is finding an ex-employee Betfair in play trader and make him confess whats going on inside..
Surely they can`t silence him right?
Nobody knows such a person?
Surely they can`t silence him right?
Nobody knows such a person?
There used to be a loop hole that could be used to beat the clock, it involved placing the delayed bet then putting all of your funds somewhere else at the same time. You then cancel the bet that has the funds tied up and your original bet will hit the market straight away without the delay.
I wouldn't be surprised if there is another way of doing it...
I wouldn't be surprised if there is another way of doing it...
Probably as rare as ex US military employees who have seen the UFO's in Area 513virgul14 wrote:All needed is finding an ex-employee Betfair in play trader and make him confess whats going on inside..
Surely they can`t silence him right?
Nobody knows such a person?
Getting back to your point, the Betfair employees probably have to sign some non disclosure agreements and are under threat of litigation if they spill the beans?
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Just my two pence worth:
1. The advert makes no reference I can see to BF trading markets. They just use the term 'trading' differently to how we tend to use it. For example I highly suspect they call the person who suspends the market and turns it inplay something like 'an inplay trader' as opposed to 'inplay button monkey'.
It is like calling the tea lady the head of liquid logistics
2. The supporting of liquidity in the markets could take many forms and I very much doubt it involves trading in the markets. Think of the costs...pay, sick leave, annual leave, bonuses, recruitment etc etc. only for the person to upsticks and set up on their own. The inplay markets aren't scalable like the financial markets so a trader at a bank is unlikely to be able to go it alone and get their hands on millions if not billions but a trader at betfair could easily get their hands on a few tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands but to what end, the markets struggle to support such amounts away from the big meetings. Much more likely they identify some key account holders and offer privileged commission rates. There is also scope for setting up deals with the various software vendors to lead to increased commission - a kind of affiliates scheme.
3. There used to be a way of cheating the inplay delay as has been said, that is the first time I have heard how it was done. But do I think there isn't another bug - although highly unlikely it is quite possible it exists and is being used by someone/team. Would we/BF know about it - very much doubt it as it would be kept as a very close secret.
4. Was XM introduced as a way to make more people get bets matched, quite likely but it also had a nice side effect of making BF money - which came first, the chicken or the egg? I suspect it was the aim to get more bets matched as they would think that would lead to better customer satisfaction and more commission, once the idea was handed over to the whizz kids they probably let them know within minutes it would lead to a nice side line of profit.
5. Are there some employees of Betfair looking at peoples accounts and working out what they do - quite likely and without Betfair's knowledge, can they replicate that activity, much less likely - ask most full timers and they will say the method makes up a very small percentage of what makes them profitable, discipline is much more key and that relies on the individual. In terms of copying peoples bots that would remove the discipline element but still I suspect many peoples bots are not easy to copy just from looking at the bets they place.
Finally the market is the market - it isn't a regulated market and even if it were it would make sod all difference. Just look at the Forex market!
1. The advert makes no reference I can see to BF trading markets. They just use the term 'trading' differently to how we tend to use it. For example I highly suspect they call the person who suspends the market and turns it inplay something like 'an inplay trader' as opposed to 'inplay button monkey'.
It is like calling the tea lady the head of liquid logistics
2. The supporting of liquidity in the markets could take many forms and I very much doubt it involves trading in the markets. Think of the costs...pay, sick leave, annual leave, bonuses, recruitment etc etc. only for the person to upsticks and set up on their own. The inplay markets aren't scalable like the financial markets so a trader at a bank is unlikely to be able to go it alone and get their hands on millions if not billions but a trader at betfair could easily get their hands on a few tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands but to what end, the markets struggle to support such amounts away from the big meetings. Much more likely they identify some key account holders and offer privileged commission rates. There is also scope for setting up deals with the various software vendors to lead to increased commission - a kind of affiliates scheme.
3. There used to be a way of cheating the inplay delay as has been said, that is the first time I have heard how it was done. But do I think there isn't another bug - although highly unlikely it is quite possible it exists and is being used by someone/team. Would we/BF know about it - very much doubt it as it would be kept as a very close secret.
4. Was XM introduced as a way to make more people get bets matched, quite likely but it also had a nice side effect of making BF money - which came first, the chicken or the egg? I suspect it was the aim to get more bets matched as they would think that would lead to better customer satisfaction and more commission, once the idea was handed over to the whizz kids they probably let them know within minutes it would lead to a nice side line of profit.
5. Are there some employees of Betfair looking at peoples accounts and working out what they do - quite likely and without Betfair's knowledge, can they replicate that activity, much less likely - ask most full timers and they will say the method makes up a very small percentage of what makes them profitable, discipline is much more key and that relies on the individual. In terms of copying peoples bots that would remove the discipline element but still I suspect many peoples bots are not easy to copy just from looking at the bets they place.
Finally the market is the market - it isn't a regulated market and even if it were it would make sod all difference. Just look at the Forex market!
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
to think bad of someone is a sin, but usually you are spot on. Giulio Andreotti.
Bare in mind that who said this phrase was also thought to be connected with the mafia.
I personally trust Betfair honesty like I trust Berlusconi honesty
0%
Bare in mind that who said this phrase was also thought to be connected with the mafia.
I personally trust Betfair honesty like I trust Berlusconi honesty
0%
On the courtsider stuff it's important to understand how the dynamics have changed.
When people started trading inplay people just exploited the time difference. Rumour has it one of the first Betfair millionaires was an SIS engineer!
But from there things got really complicated. As the market filled up with people trying to exploit that edge people started not exploiting a timing difference but trying to exploit an anticipated timing difference. So people started doing stuff ahead of market and what they could see.
So even the people with an advantage started taking risks outside there known advantage. That is often what you see in the market.
Like most markets it always sinks to its lowest common denominator / fractional return.
When people started trading inplay people just exploited the time difference. Rumour has it one of the first Betfair millionaires was an SIS engineer!
But from there things got really complicated. As the market filled up with people trying to exploit that edge people started not exploiting a timing difference but trying to exploit an anticipated timing difference. So people started doing stuff ahead of market and what they could see.
So even the people with an advantage started taking risks outside there known advantage. That is often what you see in the market.
Like most markets it always sinks to its lowest common denominator / fractional return.
An interesting aspect of Betfair that people have forgotten was that cross matching was original part of Betfair's original model. But they switched it off.andyfuller wrote:4. Was XM introduced as a way to make more people get bets matched, quite likely but it also had a nice side effect of making BF money - which came first, the chicken or the egg? I suspect it was the aim to get more bets matched as they would think that would lead to better customer satisfaction and more commission, once the idea was handed over to the whizz kids they probably let them know within minutes it would lead to a nice side line of profit.
During a meeting earlier this year at Betfair they told me they were about to start doing cross market cross matching. So that probably hasn't helped things very much!
I would tell you about my 1st hand experience on court trading but being read by betfair officials here ( no anonymity) I`ll keep the details to myself. Or can tell you on skype if anyone is interested.
Just to make the point, surely there are traders who can beat the 5 seconds. I counted between 4-5..But always half a second ahead of my 5 + 50ms delay..
It happened in a place where we checked all the court and no courtsiders were existing. We checked all the VIP rooms and even the broadcasters room in the court to see if there were anyone trading in front of a screen. Nope.
I checked the SAT feed and was 1.5 second behind of the court reality.
What`s remaining? We are not talking about a day here..I tried from the 1st round till the semi finals.. No chance!
Just to make the point, surely there are traders who can beat the 5 seconds. I counted between 4-5..But always half a second ahead of my 5 + 50ms delay..
It happened in a place where we checked all the court and no courtsiders were existing. We checked all the VIP rooms and even the broadcasters room in the court to see if there were anyone trading in front of a screen. Nope.
I checked the SAT feed and was 1.5 second behind of the court reality.
What`s remaining? We are not talking about a day here..I tried from the 1st round till the semi finals.. No chance!
That is a very interesting observation.3virgul14 wrote: I checked the SAT feed and was 1.5 second behind of the court reality.
In my view it provides strong evidence that there is someone getting round the 5 second delay on tennis. You have confirmed that the sat feed is around 1.5 seconds behind true live from direct observation of both. That is in line with my expectation considering the signal path via satellite.
Sent you PM.
3virgul14 wrote:I would tell you about my 1st hand experience on court trading but being read by betfair officials here ( no anonymity) I`ll keep the details to myself. Or can tell you on skype if anyone is interested.
Just to make the point, surely there are traders who can beat the 5 seconds. I counted between 4-5..But always half a second ahead of my 5 + 50ms delay..
It happened in a place where we checked all the court and no courtsiders were existing. We checked all the VIP rooms and even the broadcasters room in the court to see if there were anyone trading in front of a screen. Nope.
I checked the SAT feed and was 1.5 second behind of the court reality.
What`s remaining? We are not talking about a day here..I tried from the 1st round till the semi finals.. No chance!
Was there the possibility that the court action could be viewed from outside the venue, ie, from a nearby hotel window or office? Some venues for some sports can be viewed from outside the venue grounds.