Laying Drifters During Last Moments Of Race?

[FastExit]

Hi,

I've been using both betfair and betdaq, and I've been wondering if I could lay drifters during the final moments during a race?

For example 2 horses are trading pretty evenly both at odds of 4, but one horse takes the lead and drops to 1.82 and the other drifts out to 5-6 odds....

Could I lay the drifter? Would this be frowned upon, would I even get matched like this?

Please help a newbie out! Sorry if I sound like a complete idiot, please bear with me.

Thanks in advance!

[burdo77]

I'm not an in play trader, however it sounds like a bad idea if you intend greening up. Of what I have read from other comments is that the public have a very good ability to assess the chances of a horse winning or loosing, so why green up your lay in the closing stages...


I'm sure others will have more to add who specialise in this field.

[henryluca]

Why not lay......keep in play odds .....bots will take any good odds you see....before you press....many spikes out are caused by bots anyway ....many spikes dont reflect the chances anyway.....too many random spikes to be too scientific

[EyePeaSea]

Could I lay the drifter? Would this be frowned upon, would I even get matched like this?

I guess you're talking about LAY'ing, and not greening that Lay?

In my opinion, the short answer is yes. If the odds in-play start to drift, this usually means that horse is tiring.

But, unless you're watching the race, you'll never be sure that the other horse, with shortening odds, is really pulling away or whether there has just been a lot of money dumped onto it, causing the odds to fall.

And anyone watching in-play, will have seen horses down as low as 1.2 or 1.3, being beaten by other horses. If you can be confident about how close to the end of the race it is, then the odds against a drifting horse winning, will reduce.

Ian

[FastExit]

Could I lay the drifter? Would this be frowned upon, would I even get matched like this?

I guess you're talking about LAY'ing, and not greening that Lay?

Yes, I have not intention of greening-up just picking of drifters that are losing contention, just wanna know if i'll get matched or if it'll get my account somehow banned, especially on betdaq, as they have the whole ecosystem statement, they might not like me picking of drifters.

[EyePeaSea]

just wanna know if i'll get matched

Nothing beats real life testing... but you'd probably want to run your system + BA in practice mode. In terms of whether a trade gets matched, I find it quite accurate.

I assume your system is automated? You'll need to be quick as the drifters drift in big jumps very close to the end of the race.

Ian

[FastExit]

just wanna know if i'll get matched

Nothing beats real life testing... but you'd probably want to run your system + BA in practice mode. In terms of whether a trade gets matched, I find it quite accurate.

I assume your system is automated? You'll need to be quick as the drifters drift in big jumps very close to the end of the race.

Ian

Lets assume I get matched, would betfair or betdaq penalize me for laying drifters that have no chance of winning?

I have this idea, there trading team, might not take kindly to this? Seems a bit cheeky laying a horse that's trading at odds 65 near the end of the race with no hope of winning?

[98lewisj]

If you are Laying a horse at 65(?) that you think has no chance of winning, remember you only need to be wrong once in 65 to wipe out all your previous profits. I would say that laying in play works but you need to do extensive testing to work out a strategy that will work long term. I would say that at least once per day on average a horse is turned over at 1.1 or less.(just something for you to think about) good luck on your quest.
Jay

[Kalumpus]

"Lets assume I get matched, would betfair or betdaq penalize me for laying drifters that have no chance of winning?"- if you're successful with your strategy you'll certainly be penalised by Betfair - its called 'premium charge'

[tweebie1999]

Dear Fast Exit

Laying a horse as it is drifting in price towards the end of the race will lose you a lot money and probably your whole bank so please take my advice and dont do it.

If you look at a few hundred races you will notice how often a horse drifts to long odds and comes back to win. Watch this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkrbELZJ3pU.

By far the better strategy is to back a horse which is drifting or lay a horse at very short odds. This seem illogical but as I said if you watch enough races you will see why I suggest this as opposed to the strategy you are thinking of.

[LinusP]

Agreed tha value lies in finding when a runner has been over backed or over layed.

[98lewisj]

2nd race today horse turned over at 1.21.

[EyePeaSea]

Lets assume I get matched, would betfair or betdaq penalize me for laying drifters that have no chance of winning?

I'm at a loss to see why they would stop you. For you to get matched, someone must have a back, in-play. If you don't lay and match their bet, then BF/BD don't make any commission.

And as Jay says, remember that the high drifters hurt your bank when they suddenly come back into play. And the drifters that still have quite low odds, are event more likely to come back into play.

Quick look at my stats, and there have been 371 horses trading at over 100, that went on to win. That's the sort of thing that makes laying drifters so hard.

Regards


Ian

[FastExit]

Thanks for the input lads!

I understand your concerns, I'm going to give it a go and use small stakes... 50p on betdaq I believe which would give me a liability of around 20-45 quid, not bad if it goes tits up.

I'll get back to you with my results.

Again thanks for the help lads

[marko236]

If your watching the race and you are really good at predicting when a horse has no chance of winning thats an edge for me, give it a go and see how good you are good luck.