Royal Ascot 2014
Bet angel, and on the point of Betfair why would they care? whoever is doing this will be paying 60% pcPeterLe wrote:Who's BA ??marko236 wrote:The person or people that are doing this will be using a trading software and it's a good chance it's BA.....
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TheRiddler
- Posts: 102
- Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2009 5:02 pm
Sorry to hear many traders have left but things never stay still. Onwards and upwards as they say.
Hi,
I just want to add what I've experienced on the pre-off horse markets in the last week.
I'm primarily a Tennis trader I trade a bit of Football as well and I consider myself proficient in what I do. I've dabbled in the pre-off markets on the horses occasionally but nothing big, now last Sunday I thought I'd have a go at a few races at Doncaster & Salisbury with £50 stakes in preparation for a tilt at Royal Ascot in the week, I read the market I understand resistance points and trends and I opened my position then with the price bobbing around for about 30 seconds to 1 minute £4000 appeared and pushed me out straight away to a £17.35 hedged loss, OK I thought, that's just one of them get out and get over it. I then looked at the next race at Salisbury a listed race if I remember correctly, I waited read the market and entered £50 again and in almost a carbon copy I think £6000 was put in on the opposite side and I was in an instant loss of £17.51 hedged. Deep breath's and exit, was I getting this so wrong that I was losing 1/3 of my stake almost instantly? Try again I thought so I entered the next at Doncaster a 1m4f maiden again with a £50 stake and again within minutes of entering I was pushed out to a £14.27 loss with a big amount hitting the other side of the market.
So I'd lost 100% of stake in a matter of 20 minutes with big money pushing the price out many ticks all at once after I'd entered, is that a coincidence I don't think so and to top it all off all week I've had all sorts of money back(up to 50% refunded on all horse losses) emails off Betfair encouraging me to play the Royal Ascot markets, I never play the horse markets and I've never had mails regarding horse markets off Betfair until after I played on Sunday.
They must monitor accounts and I presume they saw me as a mug a small fry with a small-ish bank that they could come an rob with there bigger capital, the way I see it is I'm a small villager in a wooden boat fishing for my dinner and along comes a big trawler which takes all the fish, capsizes my boat and leaves me in the sea all wet and hungry.
Modern business ethics leave a lot to be desired and it would not surprise me one bit if there trading against there own customers.
I was going to enrol on Mug's course to learn a bit more about the horse markets to see me through the tennis close season but after this I'm not so sure, the tables seem stacked and the cards are marked and in my opinion Betfair are cutting there own throats through sheer greed.
I just want to add what I've experienced on the pre-off horse markets in the last week.
I'm primarily a Tennis trader I trade a bit of Football as well and I consider myself proficient in what I do. I've dabbled in the pre-off markets on the horses occasionally but nothing big, now last Sunday I thought I'd have a go at a few races at Doncaster & Salisbury with £50 stakes in preparation for a tilt at Royal Ascot in the week, I read the market I understand resistance points and trends and I opened my position then with the price bobbing around for about 30 seconds to 1 minute £4000 appeared and pushed me out straight away to a £17.35 hedged loss, OK I thought, that's just one of them get out and get over it. I then looked at the next race at Salisbury a listed race if I remember correctly, I waited read the market and entered £50 again and in almost a carbon copy I think £6000 was put in on the opposite side and I was in an instant loss of £17.51 hedged. Deep breath's and exit, was I getting this so wrong that I was losing 1/3 of my stake almost instantly? Try again I thought so I entered the next at Doncaster a 1m4f maiden again with a £50 stake and again within minutes of entering I was pushed out to a £14.27 loss with a big amount hitting the other side of the market.
So I'd lost 100% of stake in a matter of 20 minutes with big money pushing the price out many ticks all at once after I'd entered, is that a coincidence I don't think so and to top it all off all week I've had all sorts of money back(up to 50% refunded on all horse losses) emails off Betfair encouraging me to play the Royal Ascot markets, I never play the horse markets and I've never had mails regarding horse markets off Betfair until after I played on Sunday.
They must monitor accounts and I presume they saw me as a mug a small fry with a small-ish bank that they could come an rob with there bigger capital, the way I see it is I'm a small villager in a wooden boat fishing for my dinner and along comes a big trawler which takes all the fish, capsizes my boat and leaves me in the sea all wet and hungry.
Modern business ethics leave a lot to be desired and it would not surprise me one bit if there trading against there own customers.
I was going to enrol on Mug's course to learn a bit more about the horse markets to see me through the tennis close season but after this I'm not so sure, the tables seem stacked and the cards are marked and in my opinion Betfair are cutting there own throats through sheer greed.
Everyone seems to have forgotten what these numbers on your screen actually represent - the likelihood of a horse winning a race. Who here actually has the vaguest idea of whether these prices you're chasing around your screen represent value at any given point in terms of the race outcome?
You really shouldn't be surprised if you're getting pushed around; in fact you'd do the very same thing yourself if only you knew how to distinguish price from value.
From price manipulators to conspiracy theories to the illuminati, everyone's looking for the bogeyman but they'll never find him because they're looking in the wrong place.
You really shouldn't be surprised if you're getting pushed around; in fact you'd do the very same thing yourself if only you knew how to distinguish price from value.
From price manipulators to conspiracy theories to the illuminati, everyone's looking for the bogeyman but they'll never find him because they're looking in the wrong place.
People trade noise far too often and let the market push them around, when they probably had their original entry point spot on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Hu7lTLGk-U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Hu7lTLGk-U
weemac wrote:Everyone seems to have forgotten what these numbers on your screen actually represent - the likelihood of a horse winning a race. Who here actually has the vaguest idea of whether these prices you're chasing around your screen represent value at any given point in terms of the race outcome?
You really shouldn't be surprised if you're getting pushed around; in fact you'd do the very same thing yourself if only you knew how to distinguish price from value.
Oh I understand the concept of value and can distinguish it quite clearly, I wouldn't make money on the tennis or football markets if I didn't. What I'm seeing is clear manipulation of price by bigger banks which in turn swallows all the little banks, in my examples above all of the animals I traded came back into there original price give or take a few ticks but who can stay in when your looking at 1/3 of your stake gone when hedged? Also that figure didn't drift it flew due to the large amount of money put in. I'm not that stupid to let it drift & drift away from me without cutting.
Cheers for the video link Euler I'll have a look.
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tweebie1999
- Posts: 89
- Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2010 9:23 am
How would Betfair go about limiting manipulation? Put a limit on large stakes? Stop traders with huge turnovers? I don't think anyone would like that. And anyhow who on this forum hasn't tried to bully a price with a larger stake? Peter's course book refers the odd time to bullying the market.
How many times have you pressed the wrong button? How many times have you read the market incorrectly? How many times have you placed a lay bet in the market and the screen has frozen? All of these have happened to me. And they will happen to the bully too.
Imagine 3 minutes before the off the bully puts in a lay bet of £6000 and Betfair throws a wobbly. Liability £18000 and the horse wins without a blind think the bully can do about it!!
Eventually these people will lose enough to make them stop. We just have to take a long term view.
How many times have you pressed the wrong button? How many times have you read the market incorrectly? How many times have you placed a lay bet in the market and the screen has frozen? All of these have happened to me. And they will happen to the bully too.
Imagine 3 minutes before the off the bully puts in a lay bet of £6000 and Betfair throws a wobbly. Liability £18000 and the horse wins without a blind think the bully can do about it!!
Eventually these people will lose enough to make them stop. We just have to take a long term view.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
For me i don't care about big sums been stuck in front of me. What concerns me however, is when a big sum can flip back the other way and then slowly match down on one side of that money or quickly match down. It can create an impression when nothing is really happening.
Example,
I enter 1000 pounds back at 4.3 just in front of 10,000 pound order. Suddenly, my 1000 is matched out and the 10K that was behind me, and now i am sat with 10K against me. The money matching can start look like there are backers but the layers keep adding, when really nothing is happening. Eventually, others jump in on the lay side thinking the guy holding up all the lay money is not going to drop that price and in the charts they have just seen 20K of matched money. Therefore, someone jumps in with a lay in front of his 10K selling off my bet.
For me a start would be to treat all matched bets the same for everyone like they use to I understand and as they do on BD. This would therefore at least put everyone on a level playing field in terms of bets matching.
Something of interest to this thread.
"You will have no problems in doing this. We receive a report of all customers who match there own bets, because we don't really like our customers to do this. If there is a valid reason for it, such as your own, we can add an exception to your account."
Example,
I enter 1000 pounds back at 4.3 just in front of 10,000 pound order. Suddenly, my 1000 is matched out and the 10K that was behind me, and now i am sat with 10K against me. The money matching can start look like there are backers but the layers keep adding, when really nothing is happening. Eventually, others jump in on the lay side thinking the guy holding up all the lay money is not going to drop that price and in the charts they have just seen 20K of matched money. Therefore, someone jumps in with a lay in front of his 10K selling off my bet.
For me a start would be to treat all matched bets the same for everyone like they use to I understand and as they do on BD. This would therefore at least put everyone on a level playing field in terms of bets matching.
Something of interest to this thread.
"You will have no problems in doing this. We receive a report of all customers who match there own bets, because we don't really like our customers to do this. If there is a valid reason for it, such as your own, we can add an exception to your account."
My observations:
If for eg you enter the market on the lay side at a point when the book suggests it will turn, it is fairly safe...most of the time (ive proved this through automation). The odds still stay within tight percentages of the book (as they have for many a year).
The problem is (as suggested in an earlier post), is when the book stays almost the same percentage but new odds make up the 'new' book ie its manipulated
Its as if, someone has an overall view and through automation determine (in milliseconds) what their exposure/reward will be for forming a new set of prices.
If anyone has read Flash Boys, there MUST be an element of this going on. The markets today will prob attract >£20m. This grabs their attention. In the book it talks about how it is possible to 'see' the money arriving and before it hits (within 1 second)..it is possible to forward run that bet to other exchanges/bookmakers in under 10ms (less than the blink of an eye).
Its extremely difficult to prove, so when betfair say " show us some evidence" the layman on the street has NO chance of proving it.
All the above by the way prompted me to post "Do betfair trade their own markets". I have my own view.
If it helps, what I have found in the in play markets is very similar. Once the price is matched it never comes back down unless it has a bloody good chance of winning.
I found one way of using this to your advantage. When you take a VALUE position in play (lets say a back), dont use the normal offset, ask for much much more (in fact it works well by not offsetting at all in certain markets). Sure you don't get as many matched, but when you do...kerching
Its as if the market overshoots in the above scenario (See how many posts Jolly has written where he says "the odds were pushed way too low on that runner" or how many races where I have posted "There's another race with 3 under twos" (this has a knock on effect too with cross matching whereby we see spikes at 1000/1 and the horse winning).
I do feel for the full timers as I think its as hard as ever to make this work these days.
In short, nothing is going change anytime soon, so unfortunately as Sam Wilson once said "Adapt and Survive"
Regards
Peter
If for eg you enter the market on the lay side at a point when the book suggests it will turn, it is fairly safe...most of the time (ive proved this through automation). The odds still stay within tight percentages of the book (as they have for many a year).
The problem is (as suggested in an earlier post), is when the book stays almost the same percentage but new odds make up the 'new' book ie its manipulated
Its as if, someone has an overall view and through automation determine (in milliseconds) what their exposure/reward will be for forming a new set of prices.
If anyone has read Flash Boys, there MUST be an element of this going on. The markets today will prob attract >£20m. This grabs their attention. In the book it talks about how it is possible to 'see' the money arriving and before it hits (within 1 second)..it is possible to forward run that bet to other exchanges/bookmakers in under 10ms (less than the blink of an eye).
Its extremely difficult to prove, so when betfair say " show us some evidence" the layman on the street has NO chance of proving it.
All the above by the way prompted me to post "Do betfair trade their own markets". I have my own view.
If it helps, what I have found in the in play markets is very similar. Once the price is matched it never comes back down unless it has a bloody good chance of winning.
I found one way of using this to your advantage. When you take a VALUE position in play (lets say a back), dont use the normal offset, ask for much much more (in fact it works well by not offsetting at all in certain markets). Sure you don't get as many matched, but when you do...kerching
Its as if the market overshoots in the above scenario (See how many posts Jolly has written where he says "the odds were pushed way too low on that runner" or how many races where I have posted "There's another race with 3 under twos" (this has a knock on effect too with cross matching whereby we see spikes at 1000/1 and the horse winning).
I do feel for the full timers as I think its as hard as ever to make this work these days.
In short, nothing is going change anytime soon, so unfortunately as Sam Wilson once said "Adapt and Survive"
Regards
Peter