However, it is easy to get drawn into the figures only and you really need to question them. If all we had to do was look at handicap marks, speedfigures etc then we would all be doing it. It is important to understand the "why" behind the figures and how they all fit together. It is a big puzzle that needs solving.
I am not a fan of collateral form or pounds per length when trying to assess form. I cannot see the point in this day and age of trying to beat the handicapper at his job. Let's face it they have endless resources with which to assess a race and they rarely get it wrong. Where you can gain an edge is in the unknown data or perhaps the subjective angle if that is what you could call it.
The handicapper is not interested in what my have happened. What I mean is a horse that needs ground like a road will be assessed on the ground he is running on. The handicapper will not rate a horse on anything but what he sees. He will not deduce a horse should be rated higher because it would be much better running on a road as opposed to the slow ground he is assessing him on. That is where pedigree and action comes into play.
The first race of interest to me today is the 14:30 Brighton and the two main horses of interest are (SADLY) the 1st and 2nd fav!! These horses met in their last race and Secret Millionaire finished 3rd to Fair Play's 4th and they were approx 1L apart. The former has risen to a mark of 73 whereas the latter has dropped to 80. So on a pounds per length basis this puts them almost level. Like I said, I am not keen to base everything on collateral form only so I tend to look at the form and how it shapes to see if there are clues hidden there.
I noted Fair Value LTO (last time out) because it didn't get a clear run and had to be held up. When the gap came she seemed to find nothing but I always believe a horse can often down tools and/or burn a lot of energy if it cannot go through with the run. Yes, I could be wrong but watching the replay it does seem this could be the case. I then look at the form and see this horse does need fast ground and it appears she has a preference for downhill tracks having won at Epsom. She also won at Folkestone where they run downhill (albeit not as steep as Epsom and Brighton) and on the AW tracks. It is often the case that horses which do well on AW tracks also like tracks like Epsom, Brighton and Goodwood so today we could be in luck. Now you would not back them blind using that information, you need to see them race first. Once it is clear they can handle the course then you can consider taking an interest. She has dropped to a good mark as has Secret Millionaire but the latter has no form on downhill tracks like Brighton. It is very easy for horses to become unbalanced when they run downhill - try it yourself and you will realise how tricky it can be.
So with all of the above in mind there seems to be a discrepancy in the prices. I would have this 3.0 for both of them but Fair Value is 4.0 and Secret Millionaire 2.7!! That is ~70% combined so you cannot Dutch them despite it being unlikely anything else has a chance - I suppose you can Dutch them if you are happy with those odds! I would rather back Fair Value at 4.0 and use a BTL strategy.
At Beverley you will all know my data on front running and the draw. Horses that front run or have a good draw in the sprints have a big advantage.
I think the prices are about right in this race but one horse I cannot have is Aryal. He is a front runner but here's the problem, he is a sulker and he is also a tricky horse to catch right. He won over C&D but he was allowed to dictate a slow pace and when he kicked for home they couldn't get by him. At this course off a slow pace the best place to be is at the front but jockeys never learn and they always sit off the pace and home to burn through.
Today Eeny Mac and Enzaal will be keen to lead aand Tafawuk won't be far away. That means all four could be going at it from a long way out and that will not suit Aryal! I have him priced at 8.0-8.6 so the 5.6 on offer is very paltry.
This is tight race and I think it is between three horses Eeny Mac, Tafawuk, Ocean Applause. I cannot have the favourite at 4.6 because he is a hold up horse and so he will have to produce a damn good run to win this. I am not saying he cannot win I am saying he is no value at 4.6 with the conditions and the shape of the race.
Ramble over!!
