Some winners are not in your sample, winners that pay enough commision.Zenyatta wrote:'Profitability' should mean 'the % of accounts making a long-term profit', not 'the % of accounts in profit at a given time' - the latter measure is not accurate, because most accounts are 'inactive' (users only making a few bets then never using the account again).LinusP wrote:"What percentage of your users make a profit each year?
From memory, c.25% of our customers are profitable after commission is deducted."
viewtopic.php?f=15&t=9338
Only 1 in 200 accounts pay premium charge, so only in 1 in 200 are actually profitable long-term.
Trading at random
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verycrispy
- Posts: 18
- Joined: Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:45 am
Higher rate PC payers are in a different class and a tiny minority of all Betfair customers. So if you exclude those and you exclude inactive accounts as Zenyatta has indicated, then the % of winning customers shoots up to well over 5%. People make money by luck as well as lose money through being unlucky.
That's because you're fighting human nature, PeterEuler wrote:Must admit, I'm surprised after fourteen years of doing this and going to great lengths to try and help people that I'm still here justifying why trading is so much better than traditional betting.
People who prefer to gamble than trade are simply wired differently to you.
Trading will always be less exciting, and less sexy to gamblers
Gambling insticts can be destructive to an inexperienced trader - this is why so many fall into the pitfall of allowing a bad trade to go 'in play'
I know this from experience.......that was me 7/8 years ago!!
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NeilSpence
- Posts: 78
- Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:58 am
Another very relevant topic....But I have the issue LeTiss speaks about, I am profitable(barely), and on small stakes but enough to make half a days pay.
I then go and blow it all by going in-play, which I feel compelled to do nearly every race.
Has anyone got any remedies for this, or what they did themselves when it happened. How did you overcome this to push through and become profitable??
Answers greatly appreiocated as I think I have done the work required to understand the markets.
I then go and blow it all by going in-play, which I feel compelled to do nearly every race.
Has anyone got any remedies for this, or what they did themselves when it happened. How did you overcome this to push through and become profitable??
Answers greatly appreiocated as I think I have done the work required to understand the markets.
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spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
I think you need to crunch some numbers and check if you're really profitable without going in play.
You see so many people stating the same thing but the reality is they were never profitable to start with and the numerous occasions when they actually profit from going in play just masks the fact but is conveniently forgotten . It's always going to be hard to accept taking those reds before the off but you need to get on top of it cos you're obviously aware inplay is costing you in the long run. Maybe just close your trading at the off time for a while, once you get in the habit it almost becomes second nature to red out when things aren't going your way.
You see so many people stating the same thing but the reality is they were never profitable to start with and the numerous occasions when they actually profit from going in play just masks the fact but is conveniently forgotten . It's always going to be hard to accept taking those reds before the off but you need to get on top of it cos you're obviously aware inplay is costing you in the long run. Maybe just close your trading at the off time for a while, once you get in the habit it almost becomes second nature to red out when things aren't going your way.
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NeilSpence
- Posts: 78
- Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:58 am
ALthough I am not making massive profits my learning curve of the markets etc when pre race is going in the right direction and I am happy with it. I can never last long enough to see out the day as I go in play.
I think my issue is that with scalping I may make 2-3 a race, but in play, i can make 20-30 a race so just get there much quicker. Maybe my bank is too small and I am not seeing the profit rise quickly enough for my liking and want to speed it up? Is this a common reaosn for people going in play. I dont only do it when I have a red on my screen.
By setting a automation is like asking an alcoholic not to go to the pub, it doesnt adress the actual problem he has.
I just found this quote on a blog... is it correct?
"If you keep making the same mistake with allowing trades go in-play then maybe its time to give up and save yourself pain and financial loss! I mean this sincerely as its best to quit now before you do more damage to your finances."
I think my issue is that with scalping I may make 2-3 a race, but in play, i can make 20-30 a race so just get there much quicker. Maybe my bank is too small and I am not seeing the profit rise quickly enough for my liking and want to speed it up? Is this a common reaosn for people going in play. I dont only do it when I have a red on my screen.
By setting a automation is like asking an alcoholic not to go to the pub, it doesnt adress the actual problem he has.
I just found this quote on a blog... is it correct?
"If you keep making the same mistake with allowing trades go in-play then maybe its time to give up and save yourself pain and financial loss! I mean this sincerely as its best to quit now before you do more damage to your finances."
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spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
In play is always going to be more volatile so the swings will always give more ticks than scalping pre off, but there's little point in winning 20-30 a race only to give it all back and more a few races later. You need to number crunch the in play bets and see just how much it's costing you, pre off you wouldn't stick to something that's costing you money so why do it inplay.
In play is a different kettle of fish to pre off and even though there's money to be made you really need to know what you're doing as there are plenty of sharks out there with people on course better feeds etc
In play is a different kettle of fish to pre off and even though there's money to be made you really need to know what you're doing as there are plenty of sharks out there with people on course better feeds etc
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NeilSpence
- Posts: 78
- Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:58 am
Unfortunately I know its costing me money and not profitable. I cant bring myself to not do it though, that is the issue I am trying to solve.
I dont know whether its one or any of these
~~the gambling mentality
~~too much time between races
~~not accepting i lose doing it
~~trying to chase reds(i dont think its this cause i do it with greens as well)
~~not having a good money management plan
~~poor goal setting
~~lack of discipline
~~i am just rubbish.
It could be any of these thigns that need fixing but I don't know how yet
I dont know whether its one or any of these
~~the gambling mentality
~~too much time between races
~~not accepting i lose doing it
~~trying to chase reds(i dont think its this cause i do it with greens as well)
~~not having a good money management plan
~~poor goal setting
~~lack of discipline
~~i am just rubbish.
It could be any of these thigns that need fixing but I don't know how yet
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spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
That quote's not correct, plenty of people overcome a lot worse habits than letting bets go in play if they want to 
Probably a combination of many of those points to be fair, some just more ingrained than others. The problem is trading isn't really geared towards being a hobby so making a few pounds a race just isn't exciting for the gambler inside us, especially if you don't really need the money.
Probably a combination of many of those points to be fair, some just more ingrained than others. The problem is trading isn't really geared towards being a hobby so making a few pounds a race just isn't exciting for the gambler inside us, especially if you don't really need the money.
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NeilSpence
- Posts: 78
- Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:58 am
the worst part is i am getting hampered every day as I gamble away my bank by going in play, then i cant even put the hours in and waste another day. I have tried so many different thigns but none seem to work. i even do it on demo mode.
Maybe I am just a gambler....
Maybe I am just a gambler....
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spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
Maybe it's time to quit for a while then, no point in throwing away money especially when you're well aware you're repeating it each day. Maybe a break will 'sober' you up.
At the end of the day not everyone's has the mindset to be a successful trader even if they have the skills. You just need to tailor any betting strategy to your own 'mindset', if that means straight gambling there's probably never been a better time with 100% books to bet into. Just have to hope you don't have the chasing trait if you're gonna gamble though
At the end of the day not everyone's has the mindset to be a successful trader even if they have the skills. You just need to tailor any betting strategy to your own 'mindset', if that means straight gambling there's probably never been a better time with 100% books to bet into. Just have to hope you don't have the chasing trait if you're gonna gamble though
Maybe Peter could alter his voice and warning on Betangel from "30 seconds remaining" to instead shouting "there's only 30 seconds left...get out now you lunatic! What are you doing? You'll regret it!"
I know it's probably a bit simplistic for some but good rules need re-inforcing so why not stick a piece of paper on the top of your monitor saying "Trade out at 30 seconds"? I did this, along with other rules I needed to remember, and it certainly helped and went a long way to making me profitable. Anything to prevent you losing money and, more importantly, being unhappy.
I know it's probably a bit simplistic for some but good rules need re-inforcing so why not stick a piece of paper on the top of your monitor saying "Trade out at 30 seconds"? I did this, along with other rules I needed to remember, and it certainly helped and went a long way to making me profitable. Anything to prevent you losing money and, more importantly, being unhappy.
The last time I ever went 'in play' was New Years Day 2008 (admittedly I was still seriously pissed from the night before)
Arsenal vs West Ham
I layed Arsenal at 1.41 because they were drifting for £4750 stakes. However, there was a sharp turn in the market and Arsenal were heavily backed into 1.37 with 3pm fast approaching. I could and should have red up for a loss of £135, but I decided to let it run, as 0-0 after 10mins would allow to get out unscathed.
90secs into the match Eduardo scored for Arsenal, and I then spent the whole match praying for a West Ham equaliser......it never came & Arsenal won 2-0
I lost £1950
I printed the bet off!
6 months later after being made redundant & deciding to become a full-time trader, I pinned the printed sheet of Arsenal/West Ham and it's £1950 loss onto the wall in front of me, accompanied by a message in red marker pen at the bottom "NEVER LET A BAD TRADE GO IN PLAY"
I never have!
Arsenal vs West Ham
I layed Arsenal at 1.41 because they were drifting for £4750 stakes. However, there was a sharp turn in the market and Arsenal were heavily backed into 1.37 with 3pm fast approaching. I could and should have red up for a loss of £135, but I decided to let it run, as 0-0 after 10mins would allow to get out unscathed.
90secs into the match Eduardo scored for Arsenal, and I then spent the whole match praying for a West Ham equaliser......it never came & Arsenal won 2-0
I lost £1950
I printed the bet off!
6 months later after being made redundant & deciding to become a full-time trader, I pinned the printed sheet of Arsenal/West Ham and it's £1950 loss onto the wall in front of me, accompanied by a message in red marker pen at the bottom "NEVER LET A BAD TRADE GO IN PLAY"
I never have!