Trading at random

[steven1976]

Maybe trade a sport you truely understand? 5 ticks on a horse race is the same as 5 ticks elsewhere.

[speakers]

Le Tiss - funny how you remember these things and I'm sure when that one single howler gets into your head it helps you stop it happening again.
I never have known anything about horse racing or individual horses but I will always remember Rhythm King. Backed it for £300, market suspended to go in-play and they were a little late un-suspending it and it fell at the first fence! Not alot compared to yours but as I was only averaging a win of about £1.50 per race on the horses at the time.

[spreadbetting]

I think as soon as you take your eye off the ball, cock ups come along. I got caught out yesterday on that 160/1 winner cos it was the last selection and off screen. Didn't notice my software had laid it, and the close bet got caught in the suspension, til too late. Ended up costing me almost £600

Sometimes you just have to accept your fallibilities and hope you're either winning enough to cover them or they'll balance out in the long. I even managed to end the day up but I'm sure if I'd have tried to chase it back like I would have in the early days I'd have ended up a lot worse off.

[gutuami]

ALthough I am not making massive profits my learning curve of the markets etc when pre race is going in the right direction and I am happy with it. I can never last long enough to see out the day as I go in play.
I think my issue is that with scalping I may make 2-3 a race, but in play, i can make 20-30 a race so just get there much quicker. Maybe my bank is too small and I am not seeing the profit rise quickly enough for my liking and want to speed it up? Is this a common reaosn for people going in play. I dont only do it when I have a red on my screen.

By setting a automation is like asking an alcoholic not to go to the pub, it doesnt adress the actual problem he has.

I just found this quote on a blog... is it correct?


"If you keep making the same mistake with allowing trades go in-play then maybe its time to give up and save yourself pain and financial loss! I mean this sincerely as its best to quit now before you do more damage to your finances."

set yourself a goal. For example trade 1000 markets without going inplay. It seems that you don't have enough patience. So just trade x markets or x hours a day and stop. Find somebody to support/control you to keep your word. You can post your results on this forum on a new thread if you want. After 1000 markets you'll know for sure if you are profitable or not. You'll also find out that being disciplined is a skill that you should train every day and at the moment you are a beginner. If 1000 is too much do it for 100 first. Is this hard to do?
Record your trading sessions. Make voice comments about a trade here an there and about your feelings when market goes against you.
Think of it as a level that you should pass in order to become a good trader. If you don't pass it than it's better to leave betfair. Nobody will help you but yourself.

[Groovyelms]

ALthough I am not making massive profits my learning curve of the markets etc when pre race is going in the right direction and I am happy with it. I can never last long enough to see out the day as I go in play.
I think my issue is that with scalping I may make 2-3 a race, but in play, i can make 20-30 a race so just get there much quicker. Maybe my bank is too small and I am not seeing the profit rise quickly enough for my liking and want to speed it up? Is this a common reaosn for people going in play. I dont only do it when I have a red on my screen.

By setting a automation is like asking an alcoholic not to go to the pub, it doesnt adress the actual problem he has.

I just found this quote on a blog... is it correct?


"If you keep making the same mistake with allowing trades go in-play then maybe its time to give up and save yourself pain and financial loss! I mean this sincerely as its best to quit now before you do more damage to your finances."

set yourself a goal. For example trade 1000 markets without going inplay. It seems that you don't have enough patience. So just trade x markets or x hours a day and stop. Find somebody to support/control you to keep your word. You can post your results on this forum on a new thread if you want. After 1000 markets you'll know for sure if you are profitable or not. You'll also find out that being disciplined is a skill that you should train every day and at the moment you are a beginner. If 1000 is too much do it for 100 first. Is this hard to do?
Record your trading sessions. Make voice comments about a trade here an there and about your feelings when market goes against you.
Think of it as a level that you should pass in order to become a good trader. If you don't pass it than it's better to leave betfair. Nobody will help you but yourself.

I think all the above is very relervent... knowing yourself and how your own mind works helps. well for me it appears to help. the excellent thread by JG about trading and mindsett is worth reading over and over. For instance your own records should show where and how you win/lose, use that information to target what appears to work well and avoid what does'nt work so well. I now know that I cannot trade for a long period of time, maybe 2-4 hours maximum as i find it so tiring concerntrating and trying to get in sync with the markets, I know this because if a sizable loss (I do something obviously stupid) comes at the end of a trading session, that is now my signal to stop, shut it down, accept and hopefully prosper.

Because I know that if I don't accept at that point, then the chasing DEMON turns up and he is a powerfull force to fight with. Accept you mind has been been hijacked.. and get out before it spirals out of controll

groovy

[bennyboy351]

Having 'lent' over £1000.00. to other traders/gamblers on Betfair, I am now in the process of - albeit slowly - getting it back!

As I work full-time, making it back at £10 per day or £100 per day isn't so important to me. What is important though, is that I profit from most - if not all - of my trades! And LEARN as I go. When I started (just a few weeks ago) I took risks; went 'in play' and backed juicy outsiders - and that's how come I lent so much money to so many people!

I now set myself strict guidelines (no 'in-play' for instance) and check the charts religiously. I still rely a little on luck, but that will no doubt deminish as I progress.

One final thing I would say, is that if you MUST go in play, them choose a race (assuming you trade on horse racing - as I do) that is over a Mile long. Short, 'sprint' races often don't give you enough time to profit from odds swings.

But I guess my main piece of advice, would be to avoid going in play in the first place.

I hope this helps?

All the best
George.

[Iron]

Try getting disgusted with yourself. http://traderfeed.blogspot.co.uk/2007/0 ... rapid.html. I believe that is a more powerful motivator than looking at someone's monthly profit statement and fantasising about driving a new car or going on an exotic holiday.

Another approach worth considering is to work out what the emotional price for achieving your goal is. If it's worth it, pay the price and grit your teeth when you're dying to go in-play. If it isn't, then enjoy the sunshine whilst it lasts and do something more fulfilling with your precious time.

Jeff

[Iron]

What is important though, is that I profit from most - if not all - of my trades!

With respect, that's mistaken thinking.

You can lose 90% of the time and make money, and win 90% of the time and lose money. Having a high strike rate won't make you profitable.

You might like this interview with trading guru Mark Douglas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhKJ9P3agRc#t=1590. He gives an example of a trader who had a 5% strike rate but was hugely successful.

Jeff

[NeilSpence]

I looked at the "disgusting yourself" blog, and have thought of what I can do.
I have decided to eat a garden worm each time I go in play.
They wont make me sick but they will be disgusting. I havent traded since I posted the other day. Now need to commit to eating a worm each time. Maybe that will work.

[to75ne]

I have decided to eat a garden worm each time I go in play.
They wont make me sick but they will be disgusting. I havent traded since I posted the other day. Now need to commit to eating a worm each time. Maybe that will work.

if your going inplay when you think you dont intend to, eating a worm aint gonna stop you.

you will probably give up eating worms or get a taste for them, cause your still go inplay.

you need to figure out why you prefer (and maybe deep down actually like, get a buzz etc) to go inplay rather than i assume taking a loss big or small, or perhaps a small green that you may think is to small compared to all the effort you put in to get it.

you need to figure out why you appear to prefer to go inplay, as obviously you do, otherwise you would not. eating invertebrates is not going to get you your answer.

[Zenyatta]

I now set myself strict guidelines (no 'in-play' for instance) and check the charts religiously.

There's your first mistake right there. I wouldn't waste my time with charts if I were you. Reading tea-leaves would convey more information than charts.

P.S Jeff is back I see. A moth to the flames of trading

[Naffman]

I use charts very often and find them unbelievably helpful in predicting a swing trade. You just need to know how to apply it.

[Iron]

I don't doubt they can be useful, but in terms of predicting the market - something many market experts say is impossible - I'm dubious of their effectiveness. I'd say all we can predict about the market's next move is that it will go up, down or sideways (or nowhere if the idiot who put the 7:20 Chepstow in play early the other day still has a job).

I could be wrong though - A pro trader I correspond with uses charts and has about an 80% strike rate (and I believe Euler has a similar strike rate), so I keep an open mind about the possibility of predicting the market's next move with significantly greater than 50% accuracy.

I use charts very often and find them unbelievably helpful in predicting a swing trade. You just need to know how to apply it.

[marko236]

I don't use charts myself, i'v tried and failed. I find it better to use the ladder and look at the money up or down the columes and how the money is being taken.

[NeilSpence]

Update...
Have half solved my problem.
Peter suggested that sometimes to take control you gotta up the ante. I was trading my normal £10 stakes and went in play(using a bit of method today) and jagged a 9/1 winner on the line. This increased my bank by a very healthy £110, leaving me just over £170.
From that point I upped my stakes to £50 units when scalping. Reds where appearing everywhere, started panacking and it once went in play, got even more rabbit in the headlights and lost £50 in one go. I made completely different descions than I normally would as the stakes were so high and the reds so big.

What I did see though was that I was able to make much more per scalp and could wait and be much more patient than I normally would.

So I think my solution is to increase my bank and stakes and I will see the bank growing rather try to punt my way to a bigger bank, which is what I was doing

After that I dropped my stakes back to £10 but didnt go in play the rest of day.