Hi Guys, thought I'd post up a preview of today's tennis from a site I'm involved with, its statistical based analysis and I hope you find it useful if you trade the tennis today.
The remaining quarter-finals of Wimbledon (4 ATP, 2 WTA) are scheduled for today and particularly in the men's matches, the market justifiably expects the favourites to succeed, with Milos Raonic being priced the biggest, at around 1.50.
The Canadian takes on Australian sensation Nick Kyrgios and it's worth noting that more routine wins for Raonic have led to him playing much less tennis this fortnight. That's of a huge benefit in an arduous Grand Slam and I feel the Canadian is very generously priced at market prices, with the market over-reacting on Kyrgios' potential and recent victories.
Both players have an excellent serve so don't expect many breaks or break-backs in this...
That's a pretty common theme for the men's action today, with all favourites having projected holds over 85% and only Marin Cilic having a low projected hold for his clash with top seed Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic has beaten his countryman in all nine meetings and a failure to record a tenth would be a huge surprise. Cilic is relatively solid a break up (26.2% break lead loss in the last 12 months) so laying him a break up isn't particularly viable here.
That's also the case for Grigor Dimitrov (13.8% break lead loss - a very solid figure indeed) against Andy Murray with the Scotsman starting at 1.29, which looks a touch of value to me.
And finally there's an all-Swiss clash between Stan Wawrinka and Roger Federer. Federer looks the value choice at 1.37 based on their grass court records (he holds 4.8% more and breaks 7.0% more in the last three years), and his dominant 14-2 head to head lead.
With both players solid a break up, again laying the player a break up isn't recommended. ATP in-set trading potential is somewhat limited today.
The WTA matches have Eugenie Bouchard as a favourite against Angelique Kerber, with the market seemingly feeling Kerber will have a letdown after an epic big win, but being oblivious to this fact with Kyrgios. As I mentioned on the Champion Picks Podcast prior to Wimbledon, Kerber was my pick at 100/1 and she's now into single figures.
If Kerber wasn't potentially fatigued (and Bouchard hadn't had a rest day) , Bouchard at 1.78 would be really wrong, and I still make Kerber value today. As with men's matches, break-back stats aren't enough to justify laying either player a break up here.
That's also the case for Simona Halep's match with Sabine Lisicki, with the German surprisingly solid a break up. Having said that, with Halep's superb return game taken into account, Lisicki has a low projected hold for this and I do like laying her serve when the set is on serve and the price is viable to oppose her. Market prices of Halep at 1.40 look pretty much spot-on.
http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
Wimbledon 2014
Surely Euler after your extensive commentary of the immenent demise of Federer ( over the last year or so ! ) I assume you will be laying him heavily v Raonic at 1.35 or backing Raonic at 3.8 ?Euler wrote:Djokovic having a messy game now as well. It's all opening up for Federer!
Morning Guys, heres today's preview from http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
It's women's semi-final day at SW19 today and when assessing the two semi-finals, it's hard to make a case for either underdog...
First up on court at around 1pm GMT is the all-Czech clash between Lucie Safarova and Petra Kvitova.
Kvitova starts as favourite at around 1.44 and that's generous based on the grass court stats - over the last three years, Kvitova has held more (84.1% to 74.5%) and breaking more as well (37.0% to 29.3%). She's won 22/27 which is superb and considerably better than Safarova's 11/18 record. Safarova's 2014 grass service stats have improved to 80.2% but they are still worse than that of her higher rankeed countrywoman.
Furthermore, Kvitova has won all five head to head clashes, two in three sets and three in straight sets. Speaking of which, both players - as evidenced by today's Stat of the Day on the main page - have a high propensity to play three set matches but have only mustered one between them at Wimbledon so far from ten combined matches.
Unsurprisingly, with both women better on serve than return, projected holds are high and the chances of either player losing a break lead are below average, so laying the player a break up cannot be considered here.
However, from a trading perspective, I like backing Kvitova when a set down - according to the Ultimate Pre-Match Spreadsheet - my new product - Kvitova has won at least one set as favourite 93.5% of the time, which is absolutely stellar and well above the 82.7% WTA mean.
This shows how a product primarily orientated towards pre-match bettors still has great trading application.
Not before 2:30pm GMT sees the second semi-final, of which Simona Halep is a favourite, at about 1.62, against Eugenie Bouchard.
The Romanian world number three, who can get to number one in the race to Singapore with a win today, looks to be a value choice with my model pricing her at around 1.50.
That's not a huge surprise with there being an abundance of market love for Bouchard despite relatively unimpressive grass court stats - in the last 12 months on the surface she's held 76.5% and broken 33.7%. This is decent but not elite level, of which Halep's stats are - showing her to be a true high level all-courter. Halep has held 80.5% and broken 43.3% and those are as good stats as you'll see at WTA level on grass currently.
The net result of this is that Bouchard has a projected hold below WTA mean, and this indicates that using the Rolling Projected Hold triggers in today's Tier Two Trading Spreadsheet would give us some entry points for laying the Canadian's serve.
Halep has excellent break deficit recovery stats (61.3% in the last 12 months) but Bouchard is solid a break up (39.2%) and this gives a combined score of 100.5 - a touch lower than my required 102 in the WTA to lay a player a break up.
Like Kvitova, Halep is excellent at winning at least a set as favourite, doing so 88.9% in the last 12 months. With Bouchard winning at least a set as an underdog 72.2% (one of the best on tour and well above the 52.0% WTA average) it would indicate that this has a high chance of going three sets and I like Halep to prevail in three here. Laying Bouchard a set up also appeals.
I hope this helps anybody who trades the semi-finals today and if you want to see more check us out at http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
It's women's semi-final day at SW19 today and when assessing the two semi-finals, it's hard to make a case for either underdog...
First up on court at around 1pm GMT is the all-Czech clash between Lucie Safarova and Petra Kvitova.
Kvitova starts as favourite at around 1.44 and that's generous based on the grass court stats - over the last three years, Kvitova has held more (84.1% to 74.5%) and breaking more as well (37.0% to 29.3%). She's won 22/27 which is superb and considerably better than Safarova's 11/18 record. Safarova's 2014 grass service stats have improved to 80.2% but they are still worse than that of her higher rankeed countrywoman.
Furthermore, Kvitova has won all five head to head clashes, two in three sets and three in straight sets. Speaking of which, both players - as evidenced by today's Stat of the Day on the main page - have a high propensity to play three set matches but have only mustered one between them at Wimbledon so far from ten combined matches.
Unsurprisingly, with both women better on serve than return, projected holds are high and the chances of either player losing a break lead are below average, so laying the player a break up cannot be considered here.
However, from a trading perspective, I like backing Kvitova when a set down - according to the Ultimate Pre-Match Spreadsheet - my new product - Kvitova has won at least one set as favourite 93.5% of the time, which is absolutely stellar and well above the 82.7% WTA mean.
This shows how a product primarily orientated towards pre-match bettors still has great trading application.
Not before 2:30pm GMT sees the second semi-final, of which Simona Halep is a favourite, at about 1.62, against Eugenie Bouchard.
The Romanian world number three, who can get to number one in the race to Singapore with a win today, looks to be a value choice with my model pricing her at around 1.50.
That's not a huge surprise with there being an abundance of market love for Bouchard despite relatively unimpressive grass court stats - in the last 12 months on the surface she's held 76.5% and broken 33.7%. This is decent but not elite level, of which Halep's stats are - showing her to be a true high level all-courter. Halep has held 80.5% and broken 43.3% and those are as good stats as you'll see at WTA level on grass currently.
The net result of this is that Bouchard has a projected hold below WTA mean, and this indicates that using the Rolling Projected Hold triggers in today's Tier Two Trading Spreadsheet would give us some entry points for laying the Canadian's serve.
Halep has excellent break deficit recovery stats (61.3% in the last 12 months) but Bouchard is solid a break up (39.2%) and this gives a combined score of 100.5 - a touch lower than my required 102 in the WTA to lay a player a break up.
Like Kvitova, Halep is excellent at winning at least a set as favourite, doing so 88.9% in the last 12 months. With Bouchard winning at least a set as an underdog 72.2% (one of the best on tour and well above the 52.0% WTA average) it would indicate that this has a high chance of going three sets and I like Halep to prevail in three here. Laying Bouchard a set up also appeals.
I hope this helps anybody who trades the semi-finals today and if you want to see more check us out at http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
No way is that boy Raonic beating 'the man' FedererTHENUTS wrote:
Surely Euler after your extensive commentary of the immenent demise of Federer ( over the last year or so ! ) I assume you will be laying him heavily v Raonic at 1.35 or backing Raonic at 3.8 ?
Federer has beaten him over and over in the past, why should today be any different?I think there's a bigger chance of an upset in the other match - Dimitrov is a highly talented player on an upward curve, he's almost certainly a future champion and he's beaten Djok before.
I dont think that Dimitrov will beat Djokovic but i do think he will give him problems. I think 1.27 is too low and i'm going for a lay to back for a 10-15 tick potential profit.Zenyatta wrote:
No way is that boy Raonic beating 'the man' Federer
I think there's a bigger chance of an upset in the other match - Dimitrov is a highly talented player on an upward curve, he's almost certainly a future champion and he's beaten Djok before.
In my opinion Raonic is on the rise and although Federer has had a resurgance this year he is most definetly on the decline. His serve ( Raonic ) is absolutely extraordinary and that almost guarantees a couple of breakers - Breakers can go either way - its almost a coin toss. Except for his last match against Stan Fed has come through in straights which works in his favour but he has also had no-one to beat - Raonic is in a different class to the others and he beat Nishikori who is in fantastic form this season. I'm going to lay Fed and see how the match unfolds. If the first set is tight and Raonic wins it on a breaker then i will remove my liability and sit back and hope for a Raonic victory. If Fed breaks him in the first and wins it easily then i will red out. If Fed wins a first set breaker then i will stick around as it could be a tight one.
I have a plan ! Lets see what happens................
Hi Guys, once again here is today preview
It's men's semi-final day at SW19 today and both clashes are intriguing with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer favourites over Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic respectively.
Djokovic is first on court at 1pm today and starts at around 1.26 against the Bulgarian prospect and this looks about right in a 5-set battle.
I'm not too concerned about the 5-setter Djokovic had against countryman Marin Cilic in the quarter-final with top players being able to deal with this much better generally, and also Dimitrov had a 5-setter in a previous round, against Alexandr Dolgopolov.
According to my model, Djokovic's projected hold is above average whilst Dimitrov's is a little below, due to the excellent return game of the Serbian top seed. This gives us very little to work with regarding laying servers, and I don't like backing Djokovic in-game when losing on serve due to his notoriously atrocious break point stats. I've made the point previously that if Djokovic could up his numbers to the level of Nadal in this respect, he'd be borderline unbeatable.
Furthermore, both players lose break leads less than 20% of the time so it's not viable at all to lay the player a break up in the set either.
What we can work with is a trade backing Djokovic if he's losing the match. He's never lost a match priced between 1.20-1.49 in a Grand Slam in straight sets out of 19 matches, with three losses coming in four sets and three in five. One also came via a retirement against Andy Roddick in the 2009 Australian Open. When he dropped the first set priced under 1.50 in a Grand Slam, he won the second set 13/18 times so this makes for a solid trading opportunity, and when he lost the first two sets, he won the third on 4/5 occasions. Backing him a set down and then averaging down if he goes two sets down looks an excellent strategy.
Roger Federer starts his semi-final at 1.40 against Milos Raonic and that might be a touch of value with my model starting him at 1.31. However, I do feel the match is likely to be tight with two excellent servers competing but the Swiss player - who has broken 25.7% on grass in the last three years compared to Raonic's 13.6% - has a much better return game.
This gives Federer the edge in projected holds with his projected hold very high indeed at 96.8%. Raonic's is a touch above the ATP grass mean of 83.1% and there's an obvious temptation here to back Federer in-game when losing on serve. However, I'd temper this with his relatively poor break point stats (and Raonic being strong at converting break points) and this play probably is just about enough positive expectation for me.
As with Dimitrov and Djokovic, both players are very strong a break up losing deficits under 20% of the time so laying the player a break up cannot be considered.
Federer's record when he has lost the first set priced under 1.50 in Grand Slams contains just three defeats from 19 matches since 2008, with those coming against Tomas Berdych in 2010 and 2012, and Tommy Robredo in 2013. Both of Berdych's defeats came in four sets with Robredo coming in three sets.
He's got a worse record than Djokovic at winning the second set having lost the first (just 12/19 second set wins) but he's been superb at coming back from two sets down, winning an incredible six out of seven matches in this odds range in this scenario. I like backing Federer if he loses the first two sets here, and then clearing liability on him should he take the third.
If you like what you've read then check us out here
http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
It's men's semi-final day at SW19 today and both clashes are intriguing with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer favourites over Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic respectively.
Djokovic is first on court at 1pm today and starts at around 1.26 against the Bulgarian prospect and this looks about right in a 5-set battle.
I'm not too concerned about the 5-setter Djokovic had against countryman Marin Cilic in the quarter-final with top players being able to deal with this much better generally, and also Dimitrov had a 5-setter in a previous round, against Alexandr Dolgopolov.
According to my model, Djokovic's projected hold is above average whilst Dimitrov's is a little below, due to the excellent return game of the Serbian top seed. This gives us very little to work with regarding laying servers, and I don't like backing Djokovic in-game when losing on serve due to his notoriously atrocious break point stats. I've made the point previously that if Djokovic could up his numbers to the level of Nadal in this respect, he'd be borderline unbeatable.
Furthermore, both players lose break leads less than 20% of the time so it's not viable at all to lay the player a break up in the set either.
What we can work with is a trade backing Djokovic if he's losing the match. He's never lost a match priced between 1.20-1.49 in a Grand Slam in straight sets out of 19 matches, with three losses coming in four sets and three in five. One also came via a retirement against Andy Roddick in the 2009 Australian Open. When he dropped the first set priced under 1.50 in a Grand Slam, he won the second set 13/18 times so this makes for a solid trading opportunity, and when he lost the first two sets, he won the third on 4/5 occasions. Backing him a set down and then averaging down if he goes two sets down looks an excellent strategy.
Roger Federer starts his semi-final at 1.40 against Milos Raonic and that might be a touch of value with my model starting him at 1.31. However, I do feel the match is likely to be tight with two excellent servers competing but the Swiss player - who has broken 25.7% on grass in the last three years compared to Raonic's 13.6% - has a much better return game.
This gives Federer the edge in projected holds with his projected hold very high indeed at 96.8%. Raonic's is a touch above the ATP grass mean of 83.1% and there's an obvious temptation here to back Federer in-game when losing on serve. However, I'd temper this with his relatively poor break point stats (and Raonic being strong at converting break points) and this play probably is just about enough positive expectation for me.
As with Dimitrov and Djokovic, both players are very strong a break up losing deficits under 20% of the time so laying the player a break up cannot be considered.
Federer's record when he has lost the first set priced under 1.50 in Grand Slams contains just three defeats from 19 matches since 2008, with those coming against Tomas Berdych in 2010 and 2012, and Tommy Robredo in 2013. Both of Berdych's defeats came in four sets with Robredo coming in three sets.
He's got a worse record than Djokovic at winning the second set having lost the first (just 12/19 second set wins) but he's been superb at coming back from two sets down, winning an incredible six out of seven matches in this odds range in this scenario. I like backing Federer if he loses the first two sets here, and then clearing liability on him should he take the third.
If you like what you've read then check us out here
http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
I like a back bet on Federer to take out the tournament, currently 3.65 on Betfair.
The Dimitrov-Djok match is up first, and what I'm obviously hoping for is Dimitrov to cause the upset and win. This would leave an easier path for Roger in the final, and obviously, Fed's odds to take out the tournament are really going to steam in if Djok gets beaten.
If Dimitrov can win, I'm sitting pretty, since I could then simply take some of the profits from Roger and hedge by backing Dimitrov in the final, getting a nice green book on the tournament winner.
The Dimitrov-Djok match is up first, and what I'm obviously hoping for is Dimitrov to cause the upset and win. This would leave an easier path for Roger in the final, and obviously, Fed's odds to take out the tournament are really going to steam in if Djok gets beaten.
If Dimitrov can win, I'm sitting pretty, since I could then simply take some of the profits from Roger and hedge by backing Dimitrov in the final, getting a nice green book on the tournament winner.
