Morning guys, I'm going to post up our daily match previews from our site http://www.tennisratings.co.uk and hopefully give you some pointers on how to trade today's tennis.
Today's five events have just got underway and there's an abundance of Tennis action on the schedule, although with many events resembling a Challenger, high quality action cannot be necessarily guaranteed.
That's not a huge problem though, with the market more likely to be unaware of lower level players and their tendencies than regular ATP/WTA competitors and this gives us an edge over a lot of the market.
Furthermore, with projected holds generally low, it's likely there will be some opportunities to lay the server in the markets today.
I want to focus on matches with this potential for today's match previews.
ATP Stuttgart was postponed yesterday with rain causing all matches to be moved to today, and most matches in Germany are streamed.
Whilst I don't have in-play data on many players due to their low ranking, I expect the match between Yann Marti and lucky loser Henri Laaksonen to have breaks of serve. I also like Laaksonen's chances in this with the Finn having a better Challenger record on clay. He's won 6/12 with Marti just 3/8, and Laaksonen has held 3.5% more and broken 3.3% more. Odds of evens definitely appeal here.
Furthermore, both players have weak serves (Marti has held just 68.8% on clay at Challenger level and Laaksonen 72.3%) and on that basis laying Marti's serve in particular looks to be a good proposition.
Marco Cecchinato has decent clay stats in Challengers and looks to be - at just 21 years of age - a player that can achieve some half-decent results on the surface at ATP level in the future.
Today he takes on Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and disappointingly GGL is priced about right at 1.45. I was hoping the market might price him lower, underestimating Cecchinato.
Something else worth being aware of about Cecchinato is that he's likely to be a player that has high trading potential. Holding fairly low at 78.1% and breaking a lot at 31.7% in Challengers would convert to the low 70's and mid/upper-mid 20's at ATP level and this would make him an attractive trading proposition generally.
My projected hold model indicates either player should hold less than 70% with Garcia-Lopez having the edge - laying either player's serve looks a strong play here.
Over in the Newport ATP event, I feel that if Adrian Mannarino isn't shattered after his Challenger win last week he should be too good for Dudi Sela, with the Frenchman having much better grass court stats.
Sela's serve is poor at ATP level and laying his serve when the price is viable when the set is on serve, and laying him when a break up can also be considered.
However, it's vital that we know if Mannarino isn't going to tank, and whilst this isn't an exact science, especially without live pictures, we can assume that if he's saving break points and taking Sela's serve to 30+ on a fairly regular basis, that this won't be the case.
I also like the Newport G.O.A.T. Rajeev Ram's chances against a fatigued Jack Sock with the younger American having had to contend with a Wimbledon doubles final and a transatlantic flight, as well as a match yesterday with Ram having a day off.
Prices of around 2.30 look good on Ram who with his facile win over Matt Ebden on Monday boosted his Newport stats to 18-7 - superb for a low ranked player.
Laying Sock's serve from the off, and using the Rolling Projected Holds in today's ATP Tier Two Spreadsheet, looks to be the way forward here.
As always, good luck in the markets and stay green!
http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
Match Previews - 9th July 2014
LeTiss 4pm wrote:I've always read your analysis with great interest redhead
My apologies for my ignorance - I had no idea you were from tennisratings.co.uk
Cheers LeTiss its appreciated. I've been working alongside Dan for a while now as its a mammoth task analysing point by point data, but the edges we get are worth the hours spent.