14th JULY 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS

[Redhead]

It's day one of four new tournaments this week and with only Bogota likely to play relatively fast (and last year's service hold average in Columbia wasn't even hugely over ATP hard court mean) projected holds are likely to be a little on the low side this week and this means there should be plenty of opportunities to lay the server.

As with last week, the post-Wimbledon comedown continues and the events, with the exception of Hamburg, are poor quality affairs and this is certainly the case in Bogota where Alejandro Gonzalez, Matt Ebden and Victor Estrella Burgos are the 6th-8th seeds. This is an incredible state of affairs and I'm surprised more 40-65 ranked type players haven't made the trip, with very cheap ranking points on offer. Bernard Tomic is a player that has made the effort and you'd like to think that guarantees his motivation, and this is the type of tournament he could win and use it as a start to get his career back on track.

Matches got underway around 30 minutes ago and it will be of no surprise to daily spreadsheet subscribers to see Andrey Golubev and Benoit Paire serve up a swingy encounter first up in Hamburg with projected holds low in that match.

Also in this bracket is Mikhail Kukushkin against Marsel Ilhan with the Turk capable of an upset in this clash. He starts at around 2.75 and this is value based on his Challenger record on clay. Both players have weak serves and hold below the ATP clay mean and whilst I don't have in-play stats on Ilhan due to lack of data, Kukushkin loses a break lead (43.8% in the last 12 months) well over average but also recovers a break deficit (40.4%) a lot too. That contributes to price swings and this is likely here.

Initially I'm keen to oppose the Kukushkin serve from the off and go from there, using the Rolling Projected Hold triggers in the Tier Two Spreadsheet to proceed subsequently.

Another player who is much better on return than serve is the qualifier Filip Krajinovic and he takes on home player Jan-Lennart Struff later today.

Krajinovic's 12 month Challenger stats on clay aren't bad at all (19-10 record, 74.2% holds and 30.5% breaks) and indicate he could get some decent wins on the ATP Tour, plus at 22 years of age he has improvement in him. The Serb starts at 2.75 and I think that's a touch of value today.

With stats like these, it's unsurprising projected holds are low and with Struff looking short, I like taking the same approach with him as Kukushkin. He's a lot more solid a break up though (24.2% lead loss in the last 12 months) so laying him a break up has much less appeal, however.

In WTA action, I'd expect Rebecca Peterson to struggle to hold serve in Bastad against Jana Cepelova, who despite a poor record as favourite is value at 1.22 today. Today's stat of the day has more info on that.

The women's match which is likely to have breaks from both players is Irina Begu against Lara Arruabarrena with both ladies holding less than average and breaking more than average on clay in the last 12 months. This leads to two low projected holds and some value on Arruabarrena at 3.55 - although it's worth noting there is some appeal to lay her serve despite this with her projected hold around the 50% mark.

However, both players fall short of being worthwhile laying a break up. Combined break lead/loss stats are above average but not hugely so, and with Begu looking short laying her a break up in the first set appeals much more than laying Arruabarrena in this situation.

As always, good luck in the markets and stay green!

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