23rd JULY 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS

[Redhead]

Morning guys, here are todays match previews courtesy of http://www.tennisratings.co.uk

This week's tournaments are into their third day and there's a number of possible opportunities on today's card, with all tournaments playing on the slow side of average with the exception of Gstaad.

Matches in WTA Baku got underway an hour or so ago and I'm not surprised to see Urszula Radwanska struggles to hold against Misa Eguchi although I didn't feel it would be one-way traffic, as it is currently. Baku trading spreadsheets were sent out yesterday evening so subscribers will have been aware of the very low projected holds in this.

Another match in Azerbaijan today which should have breaks is the clash between Vesna Dolonc and Shahar Peer (above, pictured). Peer was defeated by Elina Svitolina (who is in action tomorrow) in last year's final although last year represented a much weaker field. The ranking system doesn't account for that though and with Peer's ranking standing at 97, she'll need to defend these points to avoid dropping out of the top 100.

Both ladies are stronger on return than serve, holding under 60% on hard court in the last 12 months but breaking over 40% and this contributes to two low projected holds on my model. Laying either player's serve from the off - with starting prices of 1.73 on Peer looking about right - looks good to me, and then re-assessing each service game using the Rolling Projected Hold triggers in the daily spreadsheet.

Dolonc is also horrific when a break up, losing a break lead 68.2% in the last 12 months, so laying her when a break up looks a natural entry point. Peer is surprisingly solid in this respect.

In Gstaad, the match I'm most interested in is Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Juan Monaco, with both players far from solid generally and also having much better return than service stats.

The match is priced at around evens apiece and that looks good to me - very little to separate these two players, who both break over 30% on clay but hold under the ATP clay mean.

This leads to two projected holds a little below average, even in quick conditions, and the best avenue here looks to be laying the player a break up, with today's ATP Tier Two Spreadsheet showing combined scores of 88.7 on GGL and 81.2 on Monaco - well above the ATP mean of 64.0.

I'd also expect Yann Marti - who somehow defeated Daniel Gimeno-Traver yesterday saving 23/29 break points - to have his serve broken much more than average by Marcel Granollers, who is currently 1.31.

Marti's Challenger service stats are atrocious and indicate that yesterday's success was one of very positive variance for him. Laying the Marti serve if he gets in front - especially if he's a set up and on serve - looks the best plan here.

The final match that really interests me is over in Umag where two clay-courters, Carlos Berlocq and Pablo Carreno-Busta, meet in an intriguing clash.

Berlocq starts at around 1.70 and that's good value to me - he has held 2.2% more and broken 8.4% more on clay in the last 12 months, and Carreno-Busta has an awful record when starting price underdog - put simply he struggles against 'better' players.

Projected holds are low for this with, again, both players being better on return than serve. Carreno-Busta's is especially so and I like attacking his serve from the off here, with the Rolling Projected Holds showing that unless he's holding very easily, this theme can continue as long as the price is viable.

Furthermore, with Carreno-Busta losing a break lead 43.8% in the last 12 months, and Berlocq recovering a break deficit 30.4%, a combined score of 74.2 is enough to warrant laying the Spaniard a break up today as well.

Good luck in the markets and stay green!

http://www.tennisratings.co.uk