Today's Horse Racing

[Ica73]

Thanks Marc
How did everyone do on that last one?
I didnt do as much as the first, but did ok..anyone else?

Hi, in this race I gain 60€ with 4€ of stake in-play. I lay @ 2.5/3.00 to back after one second @ 5/8/10 I do It on The first 3 fav many times... Incredible... At end I unterstand that if I put 100 of stake I can do a big gain... .

[PeterLe]

Hi
Yep automation can be powerful. We're off for a walk around the lake this afternoon, but I'll have my VPS handy on my iphone!
I actually had my stakes notched down for Ireland by a factor of 4, so that could have been some payday!

MCFC, see the chart Peter posted, the odds were all over the pace and I expect there were some BIG greens by the traders on here
Regards
Peter
PS At the risk of stating the obvious..make sure you have some safeguards in place if using automation. It just goes to show that it can go wrong

[hgodden]

Rolf Harris would be proud of some of these markets.

[Euler]

What are you seeing. I've been pretty steady today.

[to75ne]

Rolf Harris would be proud of some of these markets.

what does that mean - seems to be quite a cryptic remark; how does that sleaze bag relate to horse racing?

[Euler]

I read it as somebody has been fondling his arse

[to75ne]

I read it as somebody has been fondling his arse

oh understand (i think) he is quite happy then.

[steven1976]

I agree, too many tricks to take the sweets off the kids with a 10p mix these days.

Good luck for those taking short term positions

[Euler]

HG have you tried Betdaq as there the market more or less copies Betfair but there is less funny business over there. It's getting more and more like Betfair.

[hgodden]

What are you seeing.

Same sort of thing we've been seeing since last September, a large market making bot on all the runners that targets, pushes against, spoofs and blocks traders orders, making up a huge chunk of, and dominating the market itself, and which doesn't need to hedge - infact it is quite happy not to hedge, as over time the bets it take will pretty much break even, in order to generate commission to reduce PC.

Same thing that has reduced my earnings by at least 70% this year, as well as others I speak to, and has forced other traders out of the game altogether. It's not falling volumes causing that, exchange volumes were only down 1% in the last annual report. It's ironic that the drop in earnings is actually far greater than any PC betfair have thought up, and has created a situation now where normal traders are effectively paying the PC for one giant bot owner.

It's not just scalpers who are being robbed by this, JimRobo wasn't an out and out scalper at all and look what happened to him..... even when swing trading your order is more likely to be pushed against for as long as the bot feels like, to try to force you to close, and even when you do try to close a price it uses its influence to push the price away from where you want it to go. It's constantly trying to read what is a trader's bets, and how much liability trader has and will force us to have to take as worse a price as it can. If we don't trade out, then it doesn't really care anyway, as it has so much money behind it and knows that it will break even on the bets over time (generating commission and avoiding PC) and with the help of handicappers and insiders here, there and everywhere, it knows what to avoid (and actively pursue.) It is completely anti trader.

Now, I'm well aware that the markets have to be seeded in a way that protects the seeder from just being pushed around by traders, but the kind of activity we have seen since last autumn has not only ramped up to extravagant new levels but created a completely unlevel playing field whereby traders are just cannon fodder for a bot which don't at all mind being shot itself, it feeds on it!

If we are trading against someone who isn't hedging, then on the other side it's not really trading at all. It's just feeding.

A three week period last November was very enlightening as to this kind of behaviour, and to much of the general ramping, robbing, arse tickling, however you want to call it , that has been taking place not only recently, but also over much of the 8 years I've been trading on betfair (albeit it has been far worse recently)......

Yesterday I dug out 5 full afternoons trading videos I made during the time that covered that period. As well as being noteworthy for picking up just how many distracting websites I appear to visit at times between races, and technical things such as the time and who Signs in and when on Skype, they also show a very profound and alarming turn in the markets each afternoon at a particular point..... the first half of trading, regardless of runner, type of race, field size etc, traded notably smoothly, then suddenly, each day, mostly around about the 3PM race UK time (or 4PM for any European traders, or 7AM for any west coast American traders) the markets suddenly turned.... on each race, on pretty much each runner, larger amounts of unmatched money appeared, pushing prices about, targeting orders that weren't it's own etc etc.

It's very interesting to see how the markets can be so smooth for half the day and then suddenly there is funny business on every runner simultaneously for the rest of the day. How is anyone supposed to Deal with this if it's on every single runner? I've never found betdaq to be any good and traders I talk to say that that is now just chocked full of bot money too.

Perhaps last November would be the place to start if you want to see what I am seeing..... the contrast is quite remarkable .

Perhaps after Goodwood I'll upload these videos for all Betangel users to study the contrast.... I would say so that people can try to avoid and work around it, but when you are trading against a bot that doesn't need to trade out and which actively seeks to take on liability to increase commission, and you do need to hedge, and it works on all the runners, then I wonder how many people are actually going to be left doing much of anything in the racing markets in the future - there are certainly far less around than before.

Well I could go into much more detail but I'm getting sleepy and need to apply some pile cream to a certain area. Perhaps tubs of it could be given out with Betangel subscriptions, if there are any left in the future In any case, the most important details that I've left out are plainly visible for all to see in the videos.

[Bet Angel]

If we are trading against someone who isn't hedging, then on the other side it's not really trading at all. It's just feeding.

That's the thing that's confused me is I can see the position is wonky, but it's often held till the off.

[Euler]

HG, Rather than polluting and diluting this thread, it's worth putting on a separate topic?

[steven1976]

I think it deserves its own thread as well Hgodden. You are a seasoned pro that makes a living off it and i presume a good living. When people like Zen and myself talked about it in the past, it was probably just seen as sour loosers so people never probably took on our views.

Ill add a few points and make comments as well but think it deserves a new thread as peter says this thread has been going for years.

[Euler]

The advantage of another thread is individual instances can be examined as well. We keep data on every race and can replay the market, so that would allow forensic examination.

I have spoken to Betfair about the shape of the market, but as I have expressed before. They didn't seem very interested.

[steven1976]

Hgodden,
As you havent posted elsewhere, I guess the simplest answer is that all the little boys have been done, now it becomes a battle of the bigger boys. If your slopping money back and forth and there is only 2 people in a market then the guy who has the bigger bank and the ability to slop is going to win over time as he can put the other guy in a loosing position long enough to profit over time.

Just for the record, its not just horse racing. I see the crap in the football markets as well but at least with football if you see someone put 5K against you and tick down their money and then add another 5K just as it gets down to 1K to make it look like someone is strongly backing, then you can take advantage easily. In horse racing you cant do that because it doesnt have to go anyway until the last furlong