As I am leaving work, in 2 days time, after 16 years to pursue a life of fortune and fame trading i thought we could discuss this and HG's recent findings
Same sort of thing we've been seeing since last September, a large market making bot on all the runners that targets, pushes against, spoofs and blocks traders orders, making up a huge chunk of, and dominating the market itself, and which doesn't need to hedge - infact it is quite happy not to hedge, as over time the bets it take will pretty much break even, in order to generate commission to reduce PC.
Same thing that has reduced my earnings by at least 70% this year, as well as others I speak to, and has forced other traders out of the game altogether. It's not falling volumes causing that, exchange volumes were only down 1% in the last annual report. It's ironic that the drop in earnings is actually far greater than any PC betfair have thought up, and has created a situation now where normal traders are effectively paying the PC for one giant bot owner.
It's not just scalpers who are being robbed by this, JimRobo wasn't an out and out scalper at all and look what happened to him..... even when swing trading your order is more likely to be pushed against for as long as the bot feels like, to try to force you to close, and even when you do try to close a price it uses its influence to push the price away from where you want it to go. It's constantly trying to read what is a trader's bets, and how much liability trader has and will force us to have to take as worse a price as it can. If we don't trade out, then it doesn't really care anyway, as it has so much money behind it and knows that it will break even on the bets over time (generating commission and avoiding PC) and with the help of handicappers and insiders here, there and everywhere, it knows what to avoid (and actively pursue.) It is completely anti trader.
Now, I'm well aware that the markets have to be seeded in a way that protects the seeder from just being pushed around by traders, but the kind of activity we have seen since last autumn has not only ramped up to extravagant new levels but created a completely unlevel playing field whereby traders are just cannon fodder for a bot which don't at all mind being shot itself, it feeds on it!
If we are trading against someone who isn't hedging, then on the other side it's not really trading at all. It's just feeding.
A three week period last November was very enlightening as to this kind of behaviour, and to much of the general ramping, robbing, arse tickling, however you want to call it , that has been taking place not only recently, but also over much of the 8 years I've been trading on betfair (albeit it has been far worse recently)......
Yesterday I dug out 5 full afternoons trading videos I made during the time that covered that period. As well as being noteworthy for picking up just how many distracting websites I appear to visit at times between races, and technical things such as the time and who Signs in and when on Skype, they also show a very profound and alarming turn in the markets each afternoon at a particular point..... the first half of trading, regardless of runner, type of race, field size etc, traded notably smoothly, then suddenly, each day, mostly around about the 3PM race UK time (or 4PM for any European traders, or 7AM for any west coast American traders) the markets suddenly turned.... on each race, on pretty much each runner, larger amounts of unmatched money appeared, pushing prices about, targeting orders that weren't it's own etc etc.
It's very interesting to see how the markets can be so smooth for half the day and then suddenly there is funny business on every runner simultaneously for the rest of the day. How is anyone supposed to Deal with this if it's on every single runner? I've never found betdaq to be any good and traders I talk to say that that is now just chocked full of bot money too.
Perhaps last November would be the place to start if you want to see what I am seeing..... the contrast is quite remarkable .
Perhaps after Goodwood I'll upload these videos for all Betangel users to study the contrast.... I would say so that people can try to avoid and work around it, but when you are trading against a bot that doesn't need to trade out and which actively seeks to take on liability to increase commission, and you do need to hedge, and it works on all the runners, then I wonder how many people are actually going to be left doing much of anything in the racing markets in the future - there are certainly far less around than before.
Well I could go into much more detail but I'm getting sleepy and need to apply some pile cream to a certain area. Perhaps tubs of it could be given out with Betangel subscriptions, if there are any left in the future In any case, the most important details that I've left out are plainly visible for all to see in the videos.
New HG thread
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Hgodden, I think your clear on the level of self matching by the market. This ability allows the market makers to do many things, not just slopping their money back. It also allows them to hold down a price say by sticking 10k and ticking it down slowly, then adding another 10k and doing the same for example until someone else jumps in front of that money to sell on money.
Have you thought about asking bf to allow the same privallages of linking accounts so you could do the same and then ask someone to set up an excel or software to trade. I asked a few years ago telling them i wanted to seed their asian football markets and they said they would do. This then allows you to leave money in the market and smash through your own as it comes towards it, others see this as a market movement and jump on board or fill the gaps behind. You can then make new matched price movements for the charts matching back and forth a few k of your own money. Could also be used for other sports as well.
If you can't beat them, join them!
Have you thought about asking bf to allow the same privallages of linking accounts so you could do the same and then ask someone to set up an excel or software to trade. I asked a few years ago telling them i wanted to seed their asian football markets and they said they would do. This then allows you to leave money in the market and smash through your own as it comes towards it, others see this as a market movement and jump on board or fill the gaps behind. You can then make new matched price movements for the charts matching back and forth a few k of your own money. Could also be used for other sports as well.
If you can't beat them, join them!
Everyone gets hit by these people, i haven't kept records but i'm sure it's close to 50/50 on them losing me money to them helping me make money.
Maybe other Traders that use higher amounts of money get hit more because they are making it more worth while.
Maybe other Traders that use higher amounts of money get hit more because they are making it more worth while.
Markomarko236 wrote:Maybe HG is not willing to change his Trading style, if he's putting large amounts of money in 1 or 2 postions maybe he should spread the money out a bit.
And on this Bot if you can't beat it join it work with it or round about it.
HG has been around for ages (Full timer); he will have adapted his style many times over the years, or he simply wouldn't be around.
Regards
Peter
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Sweetbt out of interest, are you leaving work because your doing consistently well on horses prerace trading, inplay, other sports, or just fancy a new challenge?
Because I am stupid...steven1976 wrote:Sweetbt out of interest, are you leaving work because your doing consistently well on horses prerace trading, inplay, other sports, or just fancy a new challenge?
It is a great place to work, but it was a good offer to clear off, so I thought I would give it a go.
I will try to find some other work as well as trading. I only really trade in running, just about still making money but it is getting very volatile.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Nice answer. Fair enough if you got a good offer. Good luck on your new journey
Yeah point taken and HG will be far better at Trading than i am, if you don't mind me asking Peter has this affected your Trading?PeterLe wrote:Markomarko236 wrote:Maybe HG is not willing to change his Trading style, if he's putting large amounts of money in 1 or 2 postions maybe he should spread the money out a bit.
And on this Bot if you can't beat it join it work with it or round about it.
HG has been around for ages (Full timer); he will have adapted his style many times over the years, or he simply wouldn't be around.
Regards
Peter
hi Marco,marko236 wrote:Yeah point taken and HG will be far better at Trading than i am, if you don't mind me asking Peter has this affected your Trading?PeterLe wrote:Markomarko236 wrote:Maybe HG is not willing to change his Trading style, if he's putting large amounts of money in 1 or 2 postions maybe he should spread the money out a bit.
And on this Bot if you can't beat it join it work with it or round about it.
HG has been around for ages (Full timer); he will have adapted his style many times over the years, or he simply wouldn't be around.
Regards
Peter
it's a bit difficult for me to compare really as the first six years or so were all using automated strategies, whereas this last year I've been doing more manual trading.
I understand what HG is saying, its not easy making money from the pre race markets these days.
having said that, more recently I've started to concentrate a bit more on the auto again and had some really good profits.
Regards
Peter
Naffman wrote:The market will always go where it is intended to go whether there is spoof or not. Spoof is just delaying or accelerating the process.
Exactly my thoughts, i began to take a much longer term approach to my trading about 18 months or so ago as i was struggling big time with my old methods.
You have to evolve the markets cetainly do.