New HG thread
With the API you could theoretically log into an unlimited amount of betfair accounts, as you just need the SSL certificate and then you get the sessionKey and appKey. The only hard part is the algorithm that monitors your liability across the accounts. If the orders are split up across accounts it would almost be impossible to trace if the IP is hidden.
Tempted to have a go at some weak markets with two accounts to see if it works...
Tempted to have a go at some weak markets with two accounts to see if it works...
I think manipulation is bad for the markets, which is why it's banned in financial markets. But you have to deal with what is put in front of you.
Manipulation has been going on for a long time, it's shape and structure has changed. But that's a market for you, it's constantly shifting around.
So many people have had stuff that worked for a while only to outfoxed by new entrants, it's a battle. But that's the way the world works.
Back when the markets were immature it was easier to pick off profitable positions but then somebody came along and did it a bit better, so I upped my game. Then the market respond and so on and do forth. It's the same in every market and every industry. Else we would still be wearing Casio watches and using land lines.
So my response to shifts and changes has always been to up my game and understand the markets better.
As I have said before, I've solicited views from other traders and represented them at the highest level. But you will be surprised how few came forward when offered the chance. I'm still happy to help and push forward our common agenda where possible.
My biggest concern would be on isolating the activity and understanding it. If it's a tactic then I don't see that as an issue, it's for us to battle against. But if it's a fundamental functional change or a dodgy situation then that should rooted out and challenged.
Manipulation has been going on for a long time, it's shape and structure has changed. But that's a market for you, it's constantly shifting around.
So many people have had stuff that worked for a while only to outfoxed by new entrants, it's a battle. But that's the way the world works.
Back when the markets were immature it was easier to pick off profitable positions but then somebody came along and did it a bit better, so I upped my game. Then the market respond and so on and do forth. It's the same in every market and every industry. Else we would still be wearing Casio watches and using land lines.
So my response to shifts and changes has always been to up my game and understand the markets better.
As I have said before, I've solicited views from other traders and represented them at the highest level. But you will be surprised how few came forward when offered the chance. I'm still happy to help and push forward our common agenda where possible.
My biggest concern would be on isolating the activity and understanding it. If it's a tactic then I don't see that as an issue, it's for us to battle against. But if it's a fundamental functional change or a dodgy situation then that should rooted out and challenged.
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superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
Manipulation might be banned in financial markets but it goes on all the time judging by new investigations against banks that come up every few weeks. It happens all the time more subtly across all financial markets also. Pro financial traders realise that, in a zero sum game, somebody has to lose for others to make money (and that's before transaction costs kick in). As a result the tactics of the big money players is very often to push short-term moves beyond fair value as muppet money opposes with relatively tight stops, then, and only then, when the price is at more extreme levels will they get out/reverse their positions. The big money players have access to additional information that mere mortals don't have so they know when they can push with relatively low risk.
Re pre-race trading I find it very tough these days and hence only make relative peanuts and only get involved at much reduced stakes and also trade much less often. There is precious little real money in there now and too many bots all operating very similar strategies around the book percentage. I agree there are one or two superbots operating now and suspect they have different terms to the rest of us, i.e. they don't pay commission and PC but instead just a percentage of long-term profits - this enables them not to have to hedge before in-play and operate a "casino" strategy with regards to big wins/losses.
'just my two penneth and best guess as to what's happening but it might also be complete bolux!
Re pre-race trading I find it very tough these days and hence only make relative peanuts and only get involved at much reduced stakes and also trade much less often. There is precious little real money in there now and too many bots all operating very similar strategies around the book percentage. I agree there are one or two superbots operating now and suspect they have different terms to the rest of us, i.e. they don't pay commission and PC but instead just a percentage of long-term profits - this enables them not to have to hedge before in-play and operate a "casino" strategy with regards to big wins/losses.
'just my two penneth and best guess as to what's happening but it might also be complete bolux!
Firstly I am fairly new to trading and horse racing is not the best earner time wise for me but I look at pretty much every market even if I don't trade it so excuse me if I get this wrong.
I see these blocks but to my eye they mostly have little bearing on where the market goes as they are not big enough even if that made a difference to where the market is going which I don't think it does.I'll quite happily oppose them as they stand out a mile and are mostly wrong,unless everyone caves in and it actually does push a price which admittedly does sometimes happen.
It seems a bit naive to me to cave in to a block of money just because it's a large number but I'm not familiar with your average trader.I do sometimes push a price myself (well I think I do)but this only works in a small markets it has zero effect in larger ones.
My stakes are relatively small I would have thought a major trader would have little difficulty dealing with these blocks.
I'd also never trust a bot to work for me I must catch half a dozen a year that do completely the opposite of what they should,there was one yesterday backing the wrong player in a tennis match for instance.
Please feel free to shoot me down in flames I'm pretty thick skinned.
I see these blocks but to my eye they mostly have little bearing on where the market goes as they are not big enough even if that made a difference to where the market is going which I don't think it does.I'll quite happily oppose them as they stand out a mile and are mostly wrong,unless everyone caves in and it actually does push a price which admittedly does sometimes happen.
It seems a bit naive to me to cave in to a block of money just because it's a large number but I'm not familiar with your average trader.I do sometimes push a price myself (well I think I do)but this only works in a small markets it has zero effect in larger ones.
My stakes are relatively small I would have thought a major trader would have little difficulty dealing with these blocks.
I'd also never trust a bot to work for me I must catch half a dozen a year that do completely the opposite of what they should,there was one yesterday backing the wrong player in a tennis match for instance.
Please feel free to shoot me down in flames I'm pretty thick skinned.