Peter Webb videos

[freddy]

Most of the lower-grade stuff is just rubbish trading-wise, and I still say most people would be better off simply punting those.

Well I've found my best trading days of the week are Mondays and Tuesdays here in Aus, so I would have to disagree with your statement.

Well done if you can master the low-grade stuff, but after 4 years, I'm still at a total loss to understand how anyone does it.

What I found was that as soon I put any significant amount on a selection on a low-grade race, the price is repeatedly and systematically pushed against me by a huge number of ticks. After having prices pushed against me by 12, 18 even 24 ticks, if trading I really have no choice but to stop-out with huge reds, only for the price to totally retrace again.

If every time I put in a position the price is pushed against me by 24 ticks, then it is simply impossible to make any money by trading. Of course I can simply hold the position over the long-term and not stop-out, on the expectation the price will come back my way again, but this is straight gambling not trading.

Two options to consider, if you are using large stakes
Perhaps you are being a bit too obvious about your intentions, just trying to dump large amounts in a low liquidity Market is just not going to work, hence the big moves against you.

Secondly if option one is not the case, then surely there must be times where the market is pushing 24 ticks in you favor ,
if so the first rule of trading should apply, cut your losses short and let your profits run,

Are you one of those people who have a loss and then on the next race you panic though fear of losing again and take a 2 tick profit when you should have had 15 ?.

When i was struggling years ago i did a simple experiment, i set up some automation entering random trades and to my suprise it broke even more or less which was much better than i could do at the time,

So it was clear then to me alot of the things i thought were happening in the markets were actually all in my head .

[Zenyatta]

the first rule of trading should apply, cut your losses short and let your profits run,

I assure you I have put thousands of hours into trying to apply this rule ...if a trade goes against me I will stop out, if it's going my way I let it run. Absolutely doesn't work for me...in fact I actually only ever do *worse* than chance using stop-loss, losing more than 50% of all trades. In the majority of cases where I stop out, the price totally retraces, meaning I would have won if I had simply held the position (the stop always costs me more money than it saves).

When i was struggling years ago i did a simple experiment, i set up some automation entering random trades and to my suprise it broke even more or less which was much better than i could do at the time,

Yes I know. I don't lose on automation. Simple random trading always does better than I can. So my manual trading is *worse* than useless

[freddy]

In the majority of cases where I stop out, the price totally retraces, meaning I would have won if I had simply held the position (the stop always costs me more money than it saves).

Try and forget about what happens after you have exited the market, it does no good, If a trades gone badly against you, then you were wrong initially, but you then did the right thing by stopping out.
What happens next is not really relevant unless you can find away to profit from it.

Yes I know. I don't lose on automation. Simple random trading always does better than I can. So my manual trading is *worse* than useless

This means you are where i was back then and are not too far off making a profit
You just need to apply what you have learnt from automation and apply to your manual trading
or sligtly improve your automation to make it profitable.

Breaking even already makes you better than most traders .

[Zenyatta]

Try and forget about what happens after you have exited the market, it does no good, If a trades gone badly against you, then you were wrong initially, but you then did the right thing by stopping out.

Nope, because at the end the day all I'm looking at on the P&L results screen is market after market of reds (losses) from stopping out - showing that stopping out was worse than useless for me (performance worse than chance using stop-loss).

This means you are where i was back then and are not too far off making a profit
You just need to apply what you have learnt from automation and apply to your manual trading
or sligtly improve your automation to make it profitable.

Breaking even already makes you better than most traders

I break-even when I simply let all trades run until the off. Any use of stop-loss, in any shape or form, and I go back to doing worse than chance again.

[LinusP]

I think we have sidetracked a bit, I think this 'betfair traders' business is great. It is getting people excited about the exchange and what is possible, we all moan about the lack of advertising for the exchange (including me )
Although mugs has gone from hating betfair to cuddling up to them on the homepage

Would be good to scrap this gambling incentive 'cash race' business and focus on some promotions based on traders. If betfair offered to give me a risk free trade on a market I don't normally trade I would be straight in there (hint.. hint...)

[Naffman]

I have always been curious and maybe Peter may know the answer, how many people will solely be trading on any given UK horse race? Again, a little bit of topic, but I think it would be good just to show how many of us are out there, and how many others this type of advertising could bring.

Although mugs has gone from hating betfair to cuddling up to them on the homepage

This made me chuckle

[LeTiss]

Although mugs has gone from hating betfair to cuddling up to them on the homepage

This made me chuckle

Whilst this thread has completely gone off on a tangent, I think this line sums up where my cynicism towards mugs originates from - he has truly sold his soul to the devil. I preferred it when he was true to himself and launched into tirades of abuse at them

[Iron]

Although mugs has gone from hating betfair to cuddling up to them on the homepage

Keep your friends close, keep your enemies closer!

If betfair offered to give me a risk free trade on a market I don't normally trade I would be straight in there (hint.. hint...)

As in you get to keep any greens, but Betfair will bail you out if you end up with a red? Good luck with that one!

Jeff

[LinusP]

get to keep any greens, but Betfair will bail you out if you end up with a red? Good luck with that one!

Jeff

Ok maybe I am being optimistic but they used to regularly offer me 25% money back on any net losses. Why not just aim it to traders or potential traders with a link to software available.

[TraderX80]

I know this is not the right thread to be posting to but didn’t think it warranted its own either.

I was looking over Jack Birkheads ’Trading For Freedom’ website and it appears he’s given up on it, Stage 2 and Stage 3 are both “Coming Soon”, his last tweet was in 2012, his last blog entry in 2011, there’s no response to emails and I can find very little on Google?

Found something new? Fed up with the haters?

Any one know anything more?

[bilko]

My advise would give Jack a wide berth and keep your money.
That's from someone 4 years ago was mention his name in here.
After watching his course video's.
He takes 1 hour to say something that takes 4 minutes.
All crap in my eyes.

[maycontainnuts]

Jack the lad hasn't traded properly for quite a few years.