Cheltenham 1:30
I will trade Dunguib but I will green up because the price is so short. There will be 18 runners charging around Cheltenham and anything can happen. I think he will win but I couldn't back him at 2.00. Blackstairmountain or Getmeoutofhere are live contenders but Dunguib looks to be a machine and if he wins this well they'll probably offer 4.50 about next year's Champion Hurdle.
Cheltenham 2:00
I really like the look of Sizing Europe in this race. He's always looked like a chaser and his habit of over jumping hurdles meant he failed to live up to the high expectations in that sphere. Captain Cee Bee has suffered injuries and he's not too quick at his fences so I can't fancy him. He obviously has a chance but at the price there is no way I can take an interest. I cannot consider Mad Max as a contender because he is just too big and slow and he didn't run too well up the Cheltenham hill when he last ran there. I will look to steal some profit on Riverside Theatre and Quiscover Fontaine as they are live outsiders. I am worried about the form of the Mullins yard but this horse will be a big price so I can't ask for too much. Most of my trading will be on Sizing Europe and I hope to see him cruise up to the leaders between the last two and stride on to win by 4 lenghts....we have to dream
Cheltenham 2:40
I am going to trade Bensalem in this race to the exclusion of others. If Diamond Harry was in this race he'd be a very short price and Bensalem gave him a good race last time out. That was a difficult race with just 3 runners and that didn't suit him. He still produced a decent race and I think everything is in his favour tomorrow. He's a bit short to be backing but if I can trade up a decent amount then I should get a decent run for money.
Champion Hurdle
The forgotten horse, well the two forgotten horses are Celestial Halo and Punjabi. There seems to be lots of talk about Go Native, Solwhit and Binocular that my two seem to have sneaked under the radar. I feel sure Ruby Walsh wishes he could've held onto Celestial Halo a bit longer last year as he appeared to hit the front too soon and he was mugged by Punjabi. Paul Nicholls is on record as saying he has never had this horse sharper so that augurs well. He has a high cruising speed and he is extremely quick over the hurdles and you need both to win a Champion Hurdle. Punjabi has always given his running despite his recent races not really suiting him. he needs a strong pace, not a crawl followed by a sprint and I feel he will get that tomorrow which should see him being on the premises when it counts. I may trade on Binocular too but for smaller amounts because I am concern about the miraculous recovery made by this horse. He was out of the race with a muscle problem but suddenly he's okay?? That's a concern but I respect his chances if he's 100% and will try and trade him. You can't ignore Go Native but I can't trade all four so I'll just leave this horse alone although he is worthy of his place in the line up. A good friend of mine says Khyber Kim will not come off the bridle to win this race but the ground will be a lot faster tomorrow and I wonder if that will negate his finish.
The Cross Country race is something of an enigma and I will simply trade and green - hopefully! I guess Enda Bolger will look to add to his long list of winners but at Punchestown last time Another Jewel ran a decent race. You need an adadaptable horse that can handle the myriad of fences and Another Jewel won with any amount in hand over fences of this ilke at Punchestown. Obviously Garde Champetre, heads on the Ground and L'Ami are the fancied ones of Enda Bolger's FIVE runners so this will just be a fun race where hopefully I will win despite the result!
Cheltenham 4:40 is a real conundrum and I will trade this one without an interest. if Quevega is on form she'd win easily but she hasn't progressed from last year and her price of 3.00 is crazy as is the price of Voler La Vedette. I will place a small amount on Amber Brook at around 50 - 55 because she has a chance and the risk is minimal.
To round up, I am not suggesting we all abandon trading and start gambling. This is my preference for the Cheltenham Festival and I get more enjoyment from a once a year event. I am also not suggesting I will be able to trade each horse and make a profit - that is simply my aim!
Good luck to all of you!
JG
Sometimes you've just gotta know when to go for blood.
