Football ratings

[Euler]

It's interesting to see the much lower forecast for goals this evening has played out well.

[AcPok3r]

Lookin forward to this thread missed last nights teams well done to whoever got on them

[Naffman]

Thought I'd past my own ratings up that I have been developing in the past week. These are the results from the previous gameweek, and I was quite impressed how the held up. On the other hand, it could've been a whole lot of luck!

WBA vs Sunderland 3.55
Newcastle vs Man City 3.51
West Ham vs Spurs 2.79
Manchester Utd vs Swansea 2.76
Leicester vs Everton 2.72
Burnley vs Chelsea 2.68
Liverpool vs Southampton 2.59
QPR vs Hull 2.35
Stoke vs Aston Villa 2.3
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace 2.24

And I don't know if this has to be said or not, but I wouldn't advise anyone to trade or bet my ratings as it is still being developed; and like I said before, it could've been a whole lot of luck

Manchester City vs Liverpool 4.43
Everton vs Arsenal 3.31
Chelsea vs Leicester 2.96
Swansea vs Burnley 2.87
Aston Villa vs Newcastle 2.83
Southampton vs West Brom 2.56
Spurs vs QPR 2.52
Sunderland vs Manchester Utd 2.52
Hull vs Stoke 2.41
Crystal Palace vs West Ham 2.05

Again, lets hope they show some promise

[Euler]

Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 42 goals today - an average of 2.83 per match.

4.01 : Red Bull Salzburg vs. SCR Altach
3.40 : Olympiakos vs. Niki Volou
3.17 : Dortmund vs. Leverkusen
3.15 : Chelsea vs. Leicester
2.99 : Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg
2.75 : FC Koln vs. Hamburg
2.75 : Nottm Forest vs. Reading
2.73 : Swansea vs. Burnley
2.71 : Derby vs. Fulham
2.70 : Everton vs. Arsenal
2.70 : Southampton vs. West Brom
2.51 : Wolves vs. Cardiff
2.39 : Brighton vs. Bolton
2.38 : Aston Villa vs. Newcastle
2.28 : C Palace vs. West Ham

[AmazingMisterX]

Used these to good effect yesterday thanks Peter.

[PeterLe]

Peter
I know you do very well from football, but can you give us a steer as to the best way of utilising this information?
Yesterday I got bit by the Newcastle game and took a red.
My interpretation of the predictions was that on average there would be at least a single goal on the Newcastle game.
I was thinking last night that if I had traded every game via automation and used the under/Over 2.5 goals market, I may have done better, so Ive just checked what the result would have been using that market..


4.01 : Red Bull Salzburg vs. SCR Altach (WON)
3.40 : Olympiakos vs. Niki Volou (WON)
3.17 : Dortmund vs. Leverkusen (LOST)
3.15 : Chelsea vs. Leicester (LOST)
2.99 : Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg (LOST)
2.75 : FC Koln vs. Hamburg (LOST)
2.75 : Nottm Forest vs. Reading (WON)
2.73 : Swansea vs. Burnley (LOST)
2.71 : Derby vs. Fulham (WON)
2.70 : Everton vs. Arsenal (WON)
2.70 : Southampton vs. West Brom (LOST)
2.51 : Wolves vs. Cardiff (LOST)
2.39 : Brighton vs. Bolton (LOST)
2.38 : Aston Villa vs. Newcastle (WON)
2.28 : C Palace vs. West Ham (LOST)

I haven't checked the starting odds, but at first glance Im not sure that would have worked either

It would be good to gain a view as to how you approached this yesterday (as it would be from any other sucessful football traders)?
Thanks in advance,
Regards
Peter

[DavDvo]

I checked starting odds for over/under 2.5 market from yeasterday and they were pretty much corresponding with Euler table. So I personaly don't see the reason for such effort to create predictions on how many goals will be scored from trading point of view. If I want to choose market, where there is low probability of scoring than it is easy to take market where odds for Over2.5 is greater than 3 (for example).
May be this table can be used for long time correct score beting?

[Euler]

It's not a surprise to see the market reflect the ratings as I'm obviously going to use them in the pricing of the market.

How you use the ratings is up to you really and what strategy you are trying to deploy in the market. I'm merely providing as accurate projections as I can for each game. I put some notes in the header for guidance.

[convoysur-2]

my approach would have been to target the low scoring matches ,where under 2.5 is expected ,and lay over 3.5 to stay away from trouble,im not sure this approach would work at the moment.perhaps its just because the football is just starting and things are not any way settled yet,im just gona chill for a couple of weeks and see how things are panning out,
Marc

[LeTiss]

I think ratings mean jack shit until the season is 6 weeks old, as some teams have different players, some teams have different managers with different tactics, some teams are in different divisions etc - eg Palace's O2.5 figure was low, but that was based on how miserly they were under Pulis....he's gone

When Peter posted ratings before, the season was well under way, and they were excellent - far more accurate than his postings so far this season

[Euler]

The start of the season is obviously not an easy time to judge a team. Palace for example probably have their heads down at the moment, bit like Man Utd

[Euler]

3.77 : Barcelona vs. Elche
2.71 : Sunderland vs. Man Utd
2.68 : Tottenham vs. QPR
2.53 : Celta Vigo vs. Getafe
2.10 : Hull vs. Stoke

[Euler]

BTW there is almost no edge to using them to price a market as the markets are hyper efficient. But they are valid for trading strategies.

[icarus121]

All good then...Lets just chip away over the next few weeks then ratchet it up !

Like all strategies ,its better to go in full of confidence and having the required bank behind you!

Will probably coincide with the end of twilight racing!

[Euler]

I realise the match has almost finished, but for the record

3.06 : Man City vs Liverpool