Football ratings
Here's an analogy to illustrate where I'm coming from.
Widget and Co are trading at £100.
There's a chance that the price will rise or fall when earnings are announced.
I produce some calculations that show the percentage chances of a £1 rise and a £1 fall. Same for £2 and so on.
If £100 is the correct price, then it will factor in those probabilities, and I therefore won't have the basis of a long-term edge. How are football ratings any different?
Jeff
Widget and Co are trading at £100.
There's a chance that the price will rise or fall when earnings are announced.
I produce some calculations that show the percentage chances of a £1 rise and a £1 fall. Same for £2 and so on.
If £100 is the correct price, then it will factor in those probabilities, and I therefore won't have the basis of a long-term edge. How are football ratings any different?
Jeff
Jeff
Don't take this personally, but I'm not convinced this game is for you - you joined this forum 5 years ago, so I wouldn't expect you to still be asking those questions
I've said this before to you, but you're like a man who has read the Kama Sutra from back to front, but sadly suffers from erectile dysfunction
Don't take this personally, but I'm not convinced this game is for you - you joined this forum 5 years ago, so I wouldn't expect you to still be asking those questions
I've said this before to you, but you're like a man who has read the Kama Sutra from back to front, but sadly suffers from erectile dysfunction
This might be an instance where discretion is the better part of valour! 
Seriously though, if anyone knows of a way of profiting long-term through trading without finding inefficient odds or simply offering on either side of the book, I'd be very interested.
Seriously though, if anyone knows of a way of profiting long-term through trading without finding inefficient odds or simply offering on either side of the book, I'd be very interested.
marko236 wrote:Don't ask anymore questions Jeff just agree
Ok Jeff if Peter said there was a 50% chance of 2-0 score and the odds are at 2.0 what would you be looking to do?Ferru123 wrote:This might be an instance where discretion is the better part of valour!
Seriously though, if anyone knows of a way of profiting long-term through trading without finding inefficient odds or simply offering on either side of the book, I'd be very interested.marko236 wrote:Don't ask anymore questions Jeff just agree
I've raised a very logical question, which no-one has been able to address:
- If the ratings don't offer a backing or laying edge (as Peter accepts), how can they possibly offer a trading edge?
Maybe there is a way they can provide an advantage - I keep an open mind - but if so I'd love to hear it. Genuinely. I'm not afraid of being wrong. If someone can show me I'm wrong about something. then I've broadened my knowledge base.
- If the ratings don't offer a backing or laying edge (as Peter accepts), how can they possibly offer a trading edge?
Maybe there is a way they can provide an advantage - I keep an open mind - but if so I'd love to hear it. Genuinely. I'm not afraid of being wrong. If someone can show me I'm wrong about something. then I've broadened my knowledge base.
LeTiss 4pm wrote:Jeff
Don't take this personally, but I'm not convinced this game is for you - you joined this forum 5 years ago, so I wouldn't expect you to still be asking those questions
They are being very secretive then.
Seriously, how it is possible to profit long term from ultra-efficient odds (except by market making) when the Efficient Market Hypothesis says it isn't?
They must know something that Eugene Fama doesn't, despite his Nobel Prize in economics!
Seriously, how it is possible to profit long term from ultra-efficient odds (except by market making) when the Efficient Market Hypothesis says it isn't?
They must know something that Eugene Fama doesn't, despite his Nobel Prize in economics!
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