Football ratings

[Euler]

Today's: -

3.38 : PSV vs. Vitesse
3.15 : Sociedad vs. Real Madrid
3.08 : Villarreal vs. Barcelona
2.95 : Tottenham vs. Liverpool
2.69 : Leicester vs. Arsenal
2.64 : Paris St-G vs. St Etienne
2.13 : Aston Villa vs. Hull

[James1st]

Today's: -

3.38 : PSV vs. Vitesse
3.15 : Sociedad vs. Real Madrid
3.08 : Villarreal vs. Barcelona
2.95 : Tottenham vs. Liverpool
2.69 : Leicester vs. Arsenal
2.64 : Paris St-G vs. St Etienne
2.13 : Aston Villa vs. Hull

Just came across this thread and am wondering what its all about? I read the opening gambit and noted the comment "Over the course of the season we would expect to be very close in terms of goals to average rating but...."

Glad there is a "but" there. Had a quick look at the odds for overs 2.5 for the matches and got,,

3.38 : PSV vs. Vitesse................1.5 = odds
3.15 : Sociedad vs. Real Madrid.......1.62
3.08 : Villarreal vs. Barcelona.......1.82
2.95 : Tottenham vs. Liverpool........1.74
2.69 : Leicester vs. Arsenal..........1.96
2.64 : Paris St-G vs. St Etienne......1.99
2.13 : Aston Villa vs. Hull...........2.82

Remarkable correlation don't you think? Are these ratings just the product of reverse engineered odds?

I would suspect that either the odds or the ratings would be "close to the number of goals scored" given how efficient the market is.

[Iron]

Remarkable correlation don't you think?

I wouldn't say it's remarkable. It's a bit of an apples and oranges comparison, but, yes, there is a correlation.

Are these ratings just the product of reverse engineered odds?

How could you reverse engineer Betfair odds to produce a 'number of predicted goals' figure?

Jeff

[Euler]

Remarkable correlation don't you think? Are these ratings just the product of reverse engineered odds?

Been pricing footy matches since the early 80's, so I work bottom up.

Not sure what else you would expect, or else the ratings wouldn't reflect reality. As stated earlier in the thread me and many others know how to price a match so we will correct any imbalance so you surely would expect this correlation anyhow?

Also, as stated earlier, they are there to help you pick matches where a strategy is more likely to work. They are not here to find value bets.

[PeterLe]

Peter
Just wondering; Are the predicted odds in soccer mystic calculated along the same lines/methods?
The odds in soccer mystic are never spot on but they are a very good indicator, especially when the market is is suspended following a goal. I use them as a guideline
Ive found this a relatively easy way of trading the football
Regards
Peter

[Euler]

We were chatting about upgrading Soccer Mystic to put the ratings in there. Need to get NG out of the way first.

Soccer Mystic uses a derivative model of the ratings, but it's simplified to use less variables.

[marko236]

We were chatting about upgrading Soccer Mystic to put the ratings in there. Need to get NG out of the way first.

Soccer Mystic uses a derivative model of the ratings, but it's simplified to use less variables.

That's it Peter keep upgrading so we then don't have to think for ourselfs anymore, i'l pay top doller for that

[PeterLe]

Sounds interesting thanks
regards
Peter

[James1st]

Are these ratings just the product of reverse engineered odds?

How could you reverse engineer Betfair odds to produce a 'number of predicted goals' figure?

Jeff

Its not rocket science Jeff.

1. Convert the over 2.5 odds to %age chance
2. Since the overall average (all soccer) is known as 2.64, thus this represents a 50% chance of over or under 2.5
3. Multiply 2.64 by %age odds and divide by 50

eg PSV = overs 1.5 equals 66.67% chance, so 2.64*66.67/50 = 3.51

Here are the rest calculated (for comparison with the original ratings).

3.38 : PSV vs. Vitesse.................3.51
3.15 : Sociedad vs. Real Madrid........3.26
3.08 : Villarreal vs. Barcelona........2.88
2.95 : Tottenham vs. Liverpool.........3.05
2.69 : Leicester vs. Arsenal...........2.69
2.64 : Paris St-G vs. St Etienne.......2.64
2.13 : Aston Villa vs. Hull............1.87

Having done all that, it tells you not a whole lot more than just simply looking at the overs odds.

[Iron]

Its not rocket science Jeff.

Is this have a go at Jeff week?

1. Convert the over 2.5 odds to %age chance
2. Since the overall average (all soccer) is known as 2.64, thus this represents a 50% chance of over or under 2.5
3. Multiply 2.64 by %age odds and divide by 50

What's the effect of dividing by 50?

I don't see how or why the above formula will give us the expected goals per game (although I'm no rocket scientist!).

Jeff

[PeterLe]

Jeff
maybe start a new topic so not to distract from the original intention of this thread..

I just found this book on Amazon whilst looking for something else :-

http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Numbers-Gam ... 290XRCA0FC

Thought you may find it interesting..
Regards
Peter

[Euler]

Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 37 goals today - an average of 2.84 per match.

3.92 : B Munich vs. Stuttgart
3.70 : Dortmund vs. Freiburg
3.56 : Barcelona vs. Ath Bilbao
3.40 : Liverpool vs. Aston Villa
3.08 : Chelsea vs. Swansea
3.03 : Arsenal vs. Man City
2.95 : Juventus vs. Udinese
2.92 : West Brom vs. Everton
2.87 : Real Madrid vs. Atl Madrid
2.82 : Southampton vs. Newcastle
2.80 : Sunderland vs. Tottenham
2.66 : Stoke vs. Leicester
2.55 : C Palace vs. Burnley

[Euler]

3.3 : Man Utd vs. QPR
3.14 : Sevilla vs. Getafe
3.10 : Inter vs. Sassuolo
3.08 : Napoli vs. Chievo
3.05 : Nottm Forest vs. Derby
2.98 : Fiorentina vs. Genoa
2.95 : Parma vs. AC Milan
2.87 : Lazio vs. Cesena
2.84 : Valencia vs. Espanyol
2.56 : Sampdoria vs. Torino
2.38 : Guingamp vs. Bordeaux

[Euler]

No surprise to see lots of goals around this evening: -

Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 36 goals today - an average of 2.79 per match.

3.96 : Real Madrid vs. Basel
3.61 : Liverpool vs. Ludogorets
3.45 : Juventus vs. Malmo
3.12 : Dortmund vs. Arsenal
3.07 : Bournemouth vs. Leeds
3.02 : Monaco vs. Leverkusen
2.92 : Galatasaray vs. Anderlecht
2.87 : Rangers vs. Inverness CT
2.87 : Brentford vs. Norwich
2.79 : Cardiff vs. Middlesbrough
2.79 : Blackpool vs. Watford
2.75 : Benfica vs. Zenit St Petersburg
2.44 : Olympiakos vs. Atl Madrid

[convoysur-2]

im not a wizard at the football,im nt even a football fan.im so bad i have no clue what the off side rule is.
but i think there is value in some games.
lets look at real madrid v basel tonight,
ok ,,here we go..
the market expects real madrid to score 4 or more goals ,thus the price in correct score for unquted is just over even money at 2.36..to back,,
but under 4.5 can be laid at 1.53..
if there are 3 or 4 goals before 60 mins then there is money to be made.
i dont do enough football to look at this long term ,but i think its worth looking at..
feel free to tell me if im wrong ?