2nd SEPTEMBER 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS
It's day nine of the US Open and we have the final four round of 16 ATP matches, and the just two in the WTA as the quarter-finals commence.
The Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet has highlighted some decent spots today and I'll go through some of those for today's previews. With the Challenger Daily Spreadsheets now available, those who want to trade 24 hours a day can pretty much do so, with action around the globe in six Challenger tournaments, so if six matches isn't enough for you, there's plenty of opportunities to get involved in some lower level events.
It's also very possible that opportunities may crop up in-play using stats, and in that case, the Chat Room is an excellent place to be.
Yesterday's one triggered lay position was laying Makarova when a set up over Bouchard. A pretty unfortunate loss with Bouchard suffering visibly from the heat and also losing in straight sets despite having 10 break points to the Russian's 5 - a bad variance losing trade there, for sure. As I mentioned several weeks ago, losing with double the amount of break points is very rare indeed...
There's quite a bit of interest tonight in the six main tour matches and I feel that Dominic Thiem will end his tournament tonight against the 6th seed, Tomas Berdych.
Thiem is obviously a player of rich potential and to have over 100% hold/break percentage at 19 marks him out as someone who can reach the absolute top of the sport. However, I expect Berdych - who starts at around 1.32 - to be too strong tonight for the youngster.
Thiem needs to improve his solidity when a break up, with the Austrian losing a break lead 32.7% in the last 12 months. Berdych's break deficit stats have declined slightly in August but they're still elite level, and Thiem should struggle to hold onto leads tonight.
With Thiem's projected hold also low, there are a variety of trades that can be considered for this match:-
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Thiem when a set and break up against Berdych (exit point hedge when the break back is obtained, for profit, or at the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Thiem when 2-0 up in sets against Berdych (exit point - clear liability if Berdych goes a break up in the 3rd set, full hedge at 2-1 in sets, for profit, or for a loss if Thiem wins 3-0)
Lay Thiem when a break up in the final set (exit point hedge when the break back is obtained, for profit, or at the end of the set, for a loss)
Both women's matches look to have some trading potential as well - I feel Shuai Peng is value at around 1.80 against the youngster Belinda Bencic, with my projected holds model giving Peng a high projected hold and Bencic below WTA hard court average.
However, Bencic is reasonable when a break up and Peng not stellar by any means when a break down, so I'm looking at some small stakes service game lays here.
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Bencic's serve when a set up and the 2nd set is on serve, if she was broken in the previous service game. (Exit point at the end of the service game).
It's also possible to lay her when 30-0 or 40-15 up in service games, clearing liability or hedging at 30-30 or 40-40.
Finally, whilst I make Caroline Wozniacki's price of 1.25 correct, I feel there might be some avenues to exploit opponent Sara Errani's weaknesses if she gets in front.
Obviously we need Errani to trade lower than her pre-match price first and if she races into a lead like she did against Venus Williams, we could get some chances.
Errani's projected hold is very low, and her weak serve should get exposed against a player who has broken 45.2% in hard court matches in the last 12 months. Furthermore, with Errani losing a break lead 51.1% in that time period, and Wozniacki recovering a break deficit 54.2%, a combined score of 105.3 on Errani when a break up is more than enough to warrant opposing the Italian when a break up. Realistically her price will still be quite high if she breaks early in the first set but at other points this trade should be fine.
Recommended Trades:-
Lay Errani's serve when a set up and the 2nd set is on serve, if she was broken in the previous service game. (Exit point at the end of the service game).
Lay Errani when a break up in the 1st and 3rd sets as long as her price is under 2.25. (exit point hedge when the break back is obtained, for profit, or at the end of the set, for a loss)
Lay Errani when a double break up (exit point clear liability when the first break back is obtained, full hedge when the set is back on serve, for profit, or at the end of the set, for a loss)
Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.
Good luck in the markets and stay green!
http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
US Open Tennis 2014
The liquidity 'in play' has been quite impressive in some cases, but certainly pre-event the fill rate has been hugely disappointingFlock wrote:Anyone finding trouble getting matched. Is liquidity down or something on BF?
However, this appears to be a growing trend across all sports
5th SEPTEMBER 2014 MATCH PREVIEWS
It's semi-finals day in the women's event at the US Open tonight and there are two intriguing clashes on the schedule.
I'd expect the matches to be more serve dominated than a typical WTA match and none of the four players remaining have particularly low projected holds.
The Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet has highlighted a decent spot today if the match goes in a certain direction, and I'll go through that, and some other thoughts in today's previews.
With the Challenger Daily Spreadsheets now available, those who want to trade 24 hours a day can pretty much do so, with action around the globe in six Challenger tournaments, so if six matches isn't enough for you, there's plenty of opportunities to get involved in some lower level events.
It's also very possible that opportunities may crop up in-play using stats, and in that case, the Chat Room is an excellent place to be.
Wozniacki vs Peng - not before 18:45 UK time:-
Can Caroline Wozniacki finally take her first Grand Slam tournament? She's been in excellent form of late and starts as a heavy 1.29 favourite against Shuai Peng tonight. That looks reasonable with my model pricing her at 1.30.
Both ladies have held over 70% on hard court in the last 12 months and that should stand them in good stead for tonight's match, and I wouldn't expect a match where there's many breaks from both sides. Wozniacki has a clear edge on return which justifies her favourite status, and also boasts a 5-1 historical head to head lead.
As for trading plans, it's a tough one. Whilst Wozniacki's projected hold is high, her 'clutch' score for break points is mediocre. That puts me off recommending backing her when losing on serve.
One move I like is backing Wozniacki if she loses the first set. Peng is around average for winning matches 2-0 and Wozniacki has taken at least one set more often than the mean.
Recommended Trades:-
Back Wozniacki if she loses the first set (clear liability if she leads by a break in the 2nd set, full hedge if she wins the 2nd set)
S Williams vs Makarova - not before 20:45 UK time:-
Serena Williams starts at 1.15 for this and I make her a few ticks of value with my model going 1.12 on the world number one.
Opponent Makarova has impressed this fortnight but should find herself up against it tonight - although Williams' return stats have notably declined, both in how often she breaks opponents and also how often she recovers break deficits.
On that basis, opposition of the Makarova serve is far less appealing than it would have been this time last year and I'm looking at another angle here - backing Williams, whose projected hold and 'clutch' score are both very high - when losing on serve. I also like a similar line to Wozniacki and building a position on Williams should she fall behind by a set.
Recommended Trades:-
Back Williams when 0-30 or 15-40 down on serve if her price is over 2.00 (clear liability at 30-30 or 40-40, full hedge either way at end of the service game).
Back Williams if she loses the first set (clear liability if she leads by a break in the 2nd set, full hedge if she wins the 2nd set)
Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.
Good luck in the markets and stay green!
http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
It's semi-finals day in the women's event at the US Open tonight and there are two intriguing clashes on the schedule.
I'd expect the matches to be more serve dominated than a typical WTA match and none of the four players remaining have particularly low projected holds.
The Tier Two Daily Spreadsheet has highlighted a decent spot today if the match goes in a certain direction, and I'll go through that, and some other thoughts in today's previews.
With the Challenger Daily Spreadsheets now available, those who want to trade 24 hours a day can pretty much do so, with action around the globe in six Challenger tournaments, so if six matches isn't enough for you, there's plenty of opportunities to get involved in some lower level events.
It's also very possible that opportunities may crop up in-play using stats, and in that case, the Chat Room is an excellent place to be.
Wozniacki vs Peng - not before 18:45 UK time:-
Can Caroline Wozniacki finally take her first Grand Slam tournament? She's been in excellent form of late and starts as a heavy 1.29 favourite against Shuai Peng tonight. That looks reasonable with my model pricing her at 1.30.
Both ladies have held over 70% on hard court in the last 12 months and that should stand them in good stead for tonight's match, and I wouldn't expect a match where there's many breaks from both sides. Wozniacki has a clear edge on return which justifies her favourite status, and also boasts a 5-1 historical head to head lead.
As for trading plans, it's a tough one. Whilst Wozniacki's projected hold is high, her 'clutch' score for break points is mediocre. That puts me off recommending backing her when losing on serve.
One move I like is backing Wozniacki if she loses the first set. Peng is around average for winning matches 2-0 and Wozniacki has taken at least one set more often than the mean.
Recommended Trades:-
Back Wozniacki if she loses the first set (clear liability if she leads by a break in the 2nd set, full hedge if she wins the 2nd set)
S Williams vs Makarova - not before 20:45 UK time:-
Serena Williams starts at 1.15 for this and I make her a few ticks of value with my model going 1.12 on the world number one.
Opponent Makarova has impressed this fortnight but should find herself up against it tonight - although Williams' return stats have notably declined, both in how often she breaks opponents and also how often she recovers break deficits.
On that basis, opposition of the Makarova serve is far less appealing than it would have been this time last year and I'm looking at another angle here - backing Williams, whose projected hold and 'clutch' score are both very high - when losing on serve. I also like a similar line to Wozniacki and building a position on Williams should she fall behind by a set.
Recommended Trades:-
Back Williams when 0-30 or 15-40 down on serve if her price is over 2.00 (clear liability at 30-30 or 40-40, full hedge either way at end of the service game).
Back Williams if she loses the first set (clear liability if she leads by a break in the 2nd set, full hedge if she wins the 2nd set)
Please note that as always, all suggested trades are just recommendations and all trades are taken at your own risk.
Good luck in the markets and stay green!
http://www.tennisratings.co.uk
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
REDHEAD
i just want to say thanks for your tennis posts ,i have wanted to learn about trading tennis forever so by reading your tips and watching the market im slowly making progress , no greens yet but im playing small stakes and learning,,
Thanks again
Marc
i just want to say thanks for your tennis posts ,i have wanted to learn about trading tennis forever so by reading your tips and watching the market im slowly making progress , no greens yet but im playing small stakes and learning,,
Thanks again
Marc