I'm have collated a group of results for a system. I am producing my own fair value and now wish to analyse these results.
I have set up the spreadsheet to calculate bets if they are outside a range. So if the FV was 2 i would Lay if 1.8 is available and back if 2.20 (20%)
So i am using the price in the decimal format.
But should i be converting the decimal price into Percentage probability and then applying the % profit to give me the range.
-10% 1.90 = 52.63% +2.63
Flat 2.00 = 50.00% 0
+10% 2.10 = 47.63% -2.37
-10 1.45 = 68.97% +2.30
Flat 1.50 = 66.67% 0
+10 1.55 = 64.52% -2.13
What calculation to use for a system?
I think you should be looking at range in terms of tick size, as percentage is not the same for every price for eg.
20% on top of a horse at 10, = 12
however a 20% on top of a horse at 2, =2.2 there is a big diffrence in liability.
Tick Size Increment Odds From Odds To
0.01 1.01 2
0.02 2.02 3
0.05 3.05 4
0.1 4.1 6
0.2 6.2 10
0.5 10.5 20
1 21 30
2 32 50
5 55 100
10 110 1000
20% on top of a horse at 10, = 12
however a 20% on top of a horse at 2, =2.2 there is a big diffrence in liability.
Tick Size Increment Odds From Odds To
0.01 1.01 2
0.02 2.02 3
0.05 3.05 4
0.1 4.1 6
0.2 6.2 10
0.5 10.5 20
1 21 30
2 32 50
5 55 100
10 110 1000