Scottish Independence Vote

[marko236]

Do you think it's possible that there are lots of no voters there who dare not speak up?

Nationalism tends to appeal to the disaffected working class more than the comfortable middle class (who never want much political change cos they're doing just fine, tvm).

'not seen any analysis, but I reckon there's probably a big split on class lines.

I thought that to, asked the mangers at work how earn 100k + per year and there even worse! they are hell bent on independence and not only that both there dads are millionaires and there voting yes!

[Iron]

Nationalism tends to appeal to the disaffected working class more than the comfortable middle class (who never want much political change cos they're doing just fine, tvm).

True.

I do wonder whether we're in for a shock on Thursday. The stats might say that Scottish economy is doing fine, but I was unemployed in Edinburgh a couple of months ago, and I got the impression that the local economic situation was fairly grim.

It wouldn't be the first time that a national socialist party has seized power by presenting an exciting vision of the future and playing to the nation's sense of victimhood.

It would be interesting to know how many of the people who said 'yes' and 'no' in the polls actually intend to vote. There may be more No supporters, but if more Yes voters are motivated enough to actually get up off their arses and vote, that could tip the scales.

Jeff

[superfrank]

I thought that to, asked the mangers at work how earn 100k + per year and there even worse! they are hell bent on independence and not only that both there dads are millionaires and there voting yes!

that's my theory shot then.

i just don't get it tbh, but there's a part of me really wishing the Yes vote wins because we desperately need some political change/mayhem in the whole of the UK and maybe this will be the catalyst.

[Iron]

Are most of your colleagues men?

The reason I ask is that independence is far more popular amongst men than women.

I thought that to, asked the mangers at work how earn 100k + per year and there even worse!

[Iron]

Be careful what you wish for...

This country needs change, but it doesn't need the kind of economic tsunami that could result from Salmond walking away from Scotland's share of the UK's debts.

Cameron should have said from day 1 that independence would only happen if Scotland made a firm commitment to honoring its share of the national debt.

i just don't get it tbh, but there's a part of me really wishing the Yes vote wins because we desperately need some political change/mayhem in the whole of the UK and maybe this will be the catalyst.

[BJGardner]

A few observations on this.

I think there are probably a lot of "Shy Nos" who don't tell pollsters that they are going to vote no. cf 1992 General Election when even exit poll predicted Labour Victory but Major won.

However it looks to me like Betfair market has taken this into account.

Events of last week make me think Westmister (Cameron Milliband et al) are really spooked and have thrown everything at this because they really are not sure which way it will go.

I suspect the "Shy Nos" will return a No on the day but the Scotland will be the few countrys ever to have been offered independence (or freedom depending on you point of view) and reject it.

PS

Groundskeeper Willie has come out for YES

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6vDzf-wSbk

[Iron]

I suspect the "Shy Nos" will return a No on the day but the Scotland will be the first country ever to have been offered independence (or freedom depending on you point of view) and reject it.

The irony is that they could be replacing rule by Westminster for rule by Brussles (assuming the EU lets them in, which is far from clear, whatever bluff and bluster Salmond comes out with - http://www.euractiv.com/sections/uk-eur ... out-308434).

Jeff

[superfrank]

This country needs change, but it doesn't need the kind of economic tsunami that could result from Salmond walking away from Scotland's share of the UK's debts.

no one in the UK is currently facing up to the debt we already have and it's increasing at over £100Bn a year (roughly equal to Scotland's share of the current debt), so I can't see that it makes much difference. the UK is living well beyond its means, and the Scots will do the same with nobs on.

if the Scots walk away from the debt because they can't keep the pound (keeping the pound makes absolutely no sense anyway as one cannot expect the BoE to be lender of last resort to a foreign country) then the rates at which they will have to finance new debt will likely be extortionate (who is going to want to lend to a country whos first act was to default?!).

[BJGardner]

Sir Alex for President of a free Scotland.

He managed Man Us Glazer debt ok.

[Iron]

no one in the UK is currently facing up to the debt we already have and it's increasing at over £100Bn a year.

True - and yet the left still complain about austerity! When left wingers on Twitter talk about horrible Tory austerity, I point them to this graph:

https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/48 ... 68/photo/1

They generally go silent or respond with name calling.

The fact is that we are spending more in real terms now than Tony Blair did for most of his premiership - http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5326/ ... -spending/ - yet I don't remember those same left wingers accusing Blair of spending too little...

Anyway, I digress! I agree with you that we are screwed sooner or later anyway - I'd just rather the life support machine was kept on for as long as possible!

Jeff

[marko236]

Nationalism tends to appeal to the disaffected working class more than the comfortable middle class (who never want much political change cos they're doing just fine, tvm).

True.

I do wonder whether we're in for a shock on Thursday. The stats might say that Scottish economy is doing fine, but I was unemployed in Edinburgh a couple of months ago, and I got the impression that the local economic situation was fairly grim.

It wouldn't be the first time that a national socialist party has seized power by presenting an exciting vision of the future and playing to the nation's sense of victimhood.

It would be interesting to know how many of the people who said 'yes' and 'no' in the polls actually intend to vote. There may be more No supporters, but if more Yes voters are motivated enough to actually get up off their arses and vote, that could tip the scales.

Jeff

I'v come across a few people that say no vote but aren't going to vote, they say they would like to see britain stay together but they think whatever happens the country will just be the same.

[superfrank]

I agree with you that we are screwed sooner or later anyway - I'd just rather the life support machine was kept on for as long as possible!

that's the whole problem Jeff... the easy way out, i.e. heads in sand, 'extend and pretend' etc. will eventually lead us all to the poorhouse. we already have hyperinflation in assets (stocks/property), because those with money would rather hold anything than debauched currencies and govt debt.

[Iron]

I think that, in life, the people who really want something will go out and make it happen, and those who are fairly indifferent will do little or nothing.

There seem to be a lot more people who really want independence than really want the status quo (which isn't all that great, let's face it), and that could be the deciding factor.

I'm not sure most Scots realise just how bad things could be for an independent Scotland. I suspect that the general view is that things will carry on pretty much as normal, only 'Nae more Tories! Nae more austerity!'. When the interest Scots pay on their mortgages reaches double figures, or the NHS budget has to be slashed because Scotland can't borrow cheaply, it will be too late.

I'v come across a few people that say no vote but aren't going to vote, they say they would like to see britain stay together but they think whatever happens the country will just be the same.

[marko236]

in your opinion what are your co-workers main motivations for voting Yes? is it an anti-English thing, economics or what?

i wouldn't trust Salmond to run a bath, 'just interested to know why 50% of Scots would trust him to run the country.

Ask Jeff about the anti-english thing i think he stays in Scotland, did you not see the support england got at the commonwealth games?

[BJGardner]

Current price may be manipulated by liability mangement.

Graham Sharpe of William Hill explains that it’s partly about liability management. “We are facing a seven-figure loss on a no vote and a six-figure win on a yes vote so we’re trying to even that out,” he says. The momentum might be with yes, but long-term the money has been coming in for a no. “Plus a lot of people think 15% of ‘no’ voters haven’t just disappeared overnight,” says Sharpe.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/sho ... indyref-no