Football ratings

[convoysur-2]

im not a wizard at the football,im nt even a football fan.im so bad i have no clue what the off side rule is.
but i think there is value in some games.
lets look at real madrid v basel tonight,
ok ,,here we go..
the market expects real madrid to score 4 or more goals ,thus the price in correct score for unquted is just over even money at 2.36..to back,,
but under 4.5 can be laid at 1.53..
if there are 3 or 4 goals before 60 mins then there is money to be made.
i dont do enough football to look at this long term ,but i think its worth looking at..
feel free to tell me if im wrong ?

under 4.5 now at 4.1 after 32 mins,,prob is i didnt lay enough,,DO WE EVER lay enough when it goes right.?

[Euler]

Was a good trade, 4-1 at HT

Liverpool have been really disappointing tonight.

[Iron]

I'm gutted for them!

Liverpool have been really disappointing tonight.

[convoysur-2]

Was a good trade, 4-1 at HT

Liverpool have been really disappointing tonight.

it just seems to me that the market is some way unbalanced like this.? the adverage punter wont see it but there has to be an edge there, i spend too much time on the horses to get into it.especially on the iceland football.they score goals when they feel like it,the islantic womens league also,and the irish league.
also something that happens in the market ,that i believe is flawed.is the unquoted goals market ,
because if the home team scores first early -unquoted comes in then if the away team scores the unquoted comes in again.but why ?shouldent it just come in if one team has come closer to 4 goals, and not 1 goal each.
any way im back to look at tomorrows horse cards ,but if someone has nothing to do i think its worth looking at.
Marc

[convoysur-2]

im not a wizard at the football,im nt even a football fan.im so bad i have no clue what the off side rule is.
but i think there is value in some games.
lets look at real madrid v basel tonight,
ok ,,here we go..
the market expects real madrid to score 4 or more goals ,thus the price in correct score for unquted is just over even money at 2.36..to back,,
but under 4.5 can be laid at 1.53..
if there are 3 or 4 goals before 60 mins then there is money to be made.
i dont do enough football to look at this long term ,but i think its worth looking at..
feel free to tell me if im wrong ?

will it happen tonight again ?
barcelona v apoel
unquoted goals at 2.10
under 4,5 at 1.53
and barcelona trading at 1.07..
i think it will work..

[Euler]

4.15 : Barcelona vs. APOEL
3.38 : Chelsea vs. Schalke
3.28 : B Munich vs. Man City
3.06 : Blackburn vs. Derby
3.04 : Nottm Forest vs. Fulham
2.99 : Ajax vs. Paris St G
2.95 : Porto vs. BATE Borisov
2.82 : Roma vs. CSKA Moscow
2.81 : Ath Bilbao vs. Shakhtar
2.64 : Maribor vs. Sp Lisbon

[convoysur-2]

1 goal after 60 mins in the barcelona game,im gona write to the owners and ask why they are paying millions to players who cant score more goals ,
as for those gob shites man city ,not even 1 goal ,toss pots,
im writing my letters now,,demanding my 100 euros back,,
50 euro each team.
wankers,,

[giulio2010]

In the other hand there are 11 goals between Roma and Porto..Amazing to watch!!

[convoysur-2]

i had to stay up all night to get my 100.00 euro back,,hate football

[Euler]

Football is so variable. You could have a team shot 50 times and not score so you can only ever average out a strategy over very long periods of time. But I tend to look at the market and see if the match is playing out as expected, else I'll exit or change tack. Not sure what the stats said for Barca last night.

[Euler]

3.62 : Hamburg vs. B Munich
3.56 : Deportivo vs. Real Madrid
3.37 : Schalke vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
3.24 : West Ham vs. Liverpool
3.18 : Norwich vs. Birmingham
3.14 : Watford vs. Bournemouth
3.13 : Augsburg vs. W Bremen
3.06 : Derby vs. Cardiff
2.94 : Wolves vs. Bolton
2.94 : Leeds vs. Huddersfield
2.92 : Sheff Wed vs. Reading
2.88 : Aston Villa vs. Arsenal
2.84 : Swansea vs. Southampton
2.82 : Atl Madrid vs. Celta Vigo
2.77 : Middlesbrough vs. Brentford
2.77 : Marseille vs. Rennes
2.77 : AC Milan vs. Juventus
2.74 : Newcastle vs. Hull
2.73 : Rotherham vs. Charlton
2.67 : Burnley vs. Sunderland
2.54 : QPR vs. Stoke

[convoysur-2]

3 min stopage for head injurys ,,coming this week read all about it..thats good trading fodder,,,

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/sport ... 9773522000

[Euler]

3.74 : Barcelona vs. Granada
3.60 : Man Utd vs. West Ham
3.37 : Roma vs. Verona
3.33 : Villarreal vs. Real Madrid
3.3 : St Mirren vs. Celtic
3.3 : Liverpool vs. Everton
3.27 : Schalke vs. Dortmund
3.26 : Chelsea vs. Aston Villa
3.19 : FC Koln vs. B Munich
3.09 : Arsenal vs. Tottenham
3.09 : Hull vs. Man City
2.95 : Southampton vs. QPR
2.87 : Brentford vs. Leeds
2.85 : Toulouse vs. Paris St-G
2.80 : Nottm Forest vs. Brighton
2.79 : C Palace vs. Leicester
2.70 : Atl Madrid vs. Sevilla
2.70 : Atalanta vs. Juventus
2.68 : Sunderland vs. Swansea
2.66 : Charlton vs. Middlesbrough
2.64 : Estoril vs. Benfica

[weemac]

Euler, I know you're a bit of an expert at draws, and I've started to find them a fascinating trading medium.

To what extent do you see the relationship between goal expectations and the price of the draw? Is it as simple as using the goal expectancies for each team to arrive at a draw price, or is there a lot more to it than that?

[Euler]

It's almost that simple. If you think about it logically there is some easy ways to derive the chance of the draw from goals.

If you assume that teams are evenly matched then a match forecast two goals has a higher chance of a draw than a match with three goals. You can't divide three into an even number so therefore the chance of a draw is much less.

Ultimately you have to allocate goals to either team and then work out the difference between the two, but the above is a useful short cut.