Tomorrows Runners Spreadsheet

[nigelk]

I'm making a spreadsheet (ongoing project), that collates & sorts data for tomorrows runners.Based on a book that was available in the 90's called Profile. It lists all horses and their stats for todays conditions. It gives the user a quick way of spotting false favourites, overpriced (value) horses, possible steamers/drifters

Hopefully, it's fairly self explanatory, but I'll go through a couple of horses in the 3.20 at Yarmouth.

Little Shambles last run was 5 days ago. He has ran 3 times within a 1-7 day layoff and has won once. He's carrying 9'3 today and has carried a similar weight 3 times before (9'3 to 9'6) and won once.He's won 3 out of 6 attempts at 7f, and 2 races out of 4 attempts with races between 2 & 7 runners.
He's won 3 out of 9 attempts on a left handed track, but has never won on a galloping of flat surface ( 0 out of 5 on both occasions.

He's currently at 10-1 with Oddschecker. Given those stats you might/might not consider him a value bet .

Either way, the spreadsheet will have done it's job in alerting you to theses facts.

The fav (at the time of writing) is Democrates @ 2.75. No wins out of 5 attempts between 8-14 days and no wins out of 10 attempts at 7 furlongs.

Anyway, as mentioned this is on ongoing project and I'll continue to add things as I go along.

I hope to post the spreadsheet everyday for the forseeable future.

Cheers, Nigel

[Redhead]

This is fantastic stuff Nigel, thanks a million for sharing.

[megarain]

Hi,

It looks fantastic, which always makes me ashamed I never got to grips with excel .. time always seemed lacking.

Someone with enough skill to compile this spreadsheet, obviously has the skills to expand it, to make it even more user-friendly.

What is the scope of the project ?

Do u intend to refine etc, and then keep in-house .. or, are u looking for ideas etc ?

From a personal standpoint, I am always looking for ways to lose money on Bf, and win, on Betdaq.

If I could find a repeatable process, that would highlight which horses to lay / back on Bf, and reverse the transaction on Betdaq, the actual risk isnt so great, but, it alleviates PC.

Even if it was partly manual .. (I dont think u can automate using 2 exchanges at once), it would be worth something .. and
I would be grateful.

For the time being, I would look to rate, each qualification, and then maybe flag potential candidates.

Good luck with your project.

[NileVentures]

Nigel - a quick thank you to let you know that are work is greatly appreciated.
Cheers mate!

[megarain]

Just before off ..

Democrates .. 3.80 to 5.1 or so .. drifter

Little Shambles .. 10 into 7.0

Good work

[nigelk]

Nice to know it's of some use! Thanks for all the comments.

I'd like to start up a website, and my son has promised to fund it (about £100 or so?), if I get some good reviews!

Lots more to come.

Cheers,Nigel.

[Deeppockets]

This is a cracking piece of work. I am sure you will get many followers. As a novice I find this sort of info invaluable. Good luck with the website.

[steven1976]

Interested to learn more about your website Nigel. I have no idea about excel but you are obviously the king of excel from your posts over the years quietly in the background!

[nigelk]

Added the going and the Irish races, but haven't put their course characteristics in.

All races for tomorrow up to the 5:40

[nigelk]

Bit late but here are the figures for the 21/09

[rogerlisa]

Nigel

Great work! Just wished I knew how to interpret all the info to figure out a 'drifter', steamer etc. Seen numerous sites like you are trying to develop but never got round to figuring it all out. I think it is time I did. Keep posting and I will keep looking . Would also be interested in your site when you get it going. Good luck!
Roger

[nigelk]

Thanks for all the support! Don't forget, if you have any ideas that you think could add to the overall ease of use, please let me know, pm or forum post, but I'd like to keep it as VBA free as possible.

At a future date I intend to expand on it and make it more user interactive, ie set your own paramaters: days between, weights between etc etc. There are a few more ideas but I'll keep them for the website!

Added the class factor and am also working on a rudimentary ranking system.

[CharlieB500]

Hi Nigel,

As per other great work , and appreciate the time & effort being put in.

Used the info gor a couple of races yesterday to more easily identify some lays , worked out fine , early days but proving a useful tool.

Couple of suggestions , I cut & paste into my Excel sheet I use for monitoring the prices etc and tend to use the distance & going , then class as basis for liekly winners /losers. Could it be designed to move columns , eg select & drag , so you can configure to your own personal taste. Secondly and not sure how doable this would be as no source data , in regards to the going eg if going changed from Good to Good-Firm , maybe a second set of stats based on different goings , maybe this is too much to ask.

Finally and don't take this as a negative and correct me if I am wrong , noted the 2.00 at Leicester distance is 5f 218 yards , which is just 2yards short of 6 furlongs (if remembered correctly) , so effectively a 6 furlong race and the information appears to be based on 5 furlongs as far as I can see , so redundant , maybe just something to watch out/cater for.

Again many thanks for supplying this data and would love to see the website when set up.

Charlie

[nigelk]

Thanks Charlie, that's exactly the sort of feedback I'm after.

With regards to the distances (well spotted there), there are several areas that need looking into. For example, the 4:15 at Beverley. It's a 7f100yds, but looking at any horses history the results are always in complete furlongs. So if I looked at the winner of this race next week, I don't know if it be be shown as a 7 or 8 furlong race. Strange, but there it is. It is something
that is being addressed.

A more Bet Angel friendly version will be available sometime in the future,as will the changeable parameters.

I've added a second class factor which lists the horses runs/win ratio in the class above the one in which it's running today. (Except the Irish racing, which has no class definition).

Finally, you might notice that at Newcastle today, there is no surface type (flat, undulating etc). I've checked several sources, but can find no mention of it. Could it be a bit of both?

Edit: Just checked and the 7.5f races are reported as 7f wins!

[Zapata]

Proform indicate Newcastle as being Galloping