Surely the whole game is about predicting the future?
I dont think anybody would claim that you can predict it with 100% accuracy every time, but you dont have to, you just have to be right more than you are wrong.
Market moves - right or wrong?
Nope, you can be wrong most of the time and still make money.
To use an analogy, if I bet on 4.0 horses whose true odds are 3.0, most of the time I will lose money, but eventually I will become extremely wealthy.
Jeff
To use an analogy, if I bet on 4.0 horses whose true odds are 3.0, most of the time I will lose money, but eventually I will become extremely wealthy.
Jeff
oscar123 wrote: I dont think anybody would claim that you can predict it with 100% accuracy every time, but you dont have to, you just have to be right more than you are wrong.
Yes but for that to work you will have to be right in your assessment that the horses true price is 3.0 more often than you are wrong.
If you arent a very good odds compiler and your 3.0 chances that you back at 4.0 dont win as often as they should, eventually you will lose a lot of money.
You still have to predict that it should be a 3 chance and not a 4, as the market is telling you.
If you arent a very good odds compiler and your 3.0 chances that you back at 4.0 dont win as often as they should, eventually you will lose a lot of money.
You still have to predict that it should be a 3 chance and not a 4, as the market is telling you.
Predicting that your methods will yield a long-term edge is different to predicting what will happen next, which is what we are talking about. 
Jeff
Jeff
oscar123 wrote: You still have to predict that it should be a 3 chance and not a 4, as the market is telling you.
So what are you saying Jeff? Can you predict anything or not?!
Or do you have to wait for the market to tell you what is happening? That's all very well if you do, and it always looks so obvious when you look at the graphs after the race. But try it in real time, with real money, and I think you will find the scenario that zenyatta describes happens more often than not, or at least often enough to wipe out any profits that you have built up from waiting to be told.
Or do you have to wait for the market to tell you what is happening? That's all very well if you do, and it always looks so obvious when you look at the graphs after the race. But try it in real time, with real money, and I think you will find the scenario that zenyatta describes happens more often than not, or at least often enough to wipe out any profits that you have built up from waiting to be told.
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JollyGreen
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That scenario would be easy to trade because it makes no sense otherwise. If a price has steamed in as described then by definition you should be able to catch some of the downward move. If it then reverses by "24 ticks" as described then you should be able tooscar123 wrote: I think you will find the scenario that zenyatta describes happens more often than not, or at least often enough to wipe out any profits that you have built up from waiting to be told.
A: Get off the downward trend sufficiently quickly enough to keep some profit
B: Catch some of the reverse to make additional profit
The description given is exactly what Jeff described, "the intelligence trap" being used to disprove something else.
So ask yourself if it makes sense that a horse would steam right in and then reverse back out by 24 ticks and all you could do was make a huge red? If it was jumping up and down 5 ticks at a time then a loss is more likely but then it falls into no discernible trend so you abstain, the former explanation makes no sense, sorry but it simply doesn't.
I'm sensing some frustration. Perhaps you are falling into the intelligence trap, and trying to defend your position rather than considering the possibility that you might be wrong.oscar123 wrote:So what are you saying Jeff? Can you predict anything or not?!
Beware that you may just be clutching a comfort blanket - the human mind likes certainty, even when it is just an illusion. The reality is that we are tossed around by the winds of fortune far more than we like to admit to ourselves. Your local hospital will be full of people who had no idea they would end up there.
Jeff
Im not sure what doesnt make sense? Im just saying in real time its a lot more difficult than it seems after the race looking at the graph.
Its all very well if you know that the trend has reversed and you managed to make money off both the way up and catching it one the way down. But putting that into practise in real time is a lot more difficult than you are making out.
But just in case, i shall make extra effort to stay away from that trap door!! Because there's somthing down there!
Its all very well if you know that the trend has reversed and you managed to make money off both the way up and catching it one the way down. But putting that into practise in real time is a lot more difficult than you are making out.
But just in case, i shall make extra effort to stay away from that trap door!! Because there's somthing down there!
I love your little quotes and pearls of wisdom Jeff!
I know they sound good and make you sound wise and clever, but do you think you will ever read a quote that actually helps you to make some money trading?! Because im guessing youve read quite a few of them now!
And my mind is more than open Jeff, perhaps its you that needs to open yours a little?! I dont think your meditation is working very well, maybe you should go and lick some toads or something instead?!
I know they sound good and make you sound wise and clever, but do you think you will ever read a quote that actually helps you to make some money trading?! Because im guessing youve read quite a few of them now!
And my mind is more than open Jeff, perhaps its you that needs to open yours a little?! I dont think your meditation is working very well, maybe you should go and lick some toads or something instead?!
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JollyGreen
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Forget the chart attached, I am referring to the same thing you referred to namely Zenyatta's comment about a price steaming in and then reversing 24 ticks. If that happens you said it was "likely to result in losses" and I am paraphrasing. Well that is simply not going to happen the way it was described. If and it is a big IF that move occurred, unless you closed your eyes or maybe fell asleep it would be impossible for a price to steam in and then reverse 24 ticks causing you to lose a lot of money. Just think about it logically. The move starts to occur and even if it moves 8 ticks before you convince yourself it is a steamer there are 16 more potential ticks to come. There has to be 16 because there was a 24 tick reverse! So would anyone in their right mind sit there and watch the price go down without acting? Having joined at zero minus 8 with zero being the trend starting point you may choose to get out at 1-16 ticks profit. The only way to lose is to sit there and watch it go down 1-16 ticks then watch it come all the way back up past your entry point until you are now in a loss. I am sorry but it is utter nonsense so you have to fall asleep to lose money in this supposed scenario.oscar123 wrote:Im not sure what doesnt make sense? !
If we are more circumspect with the amount of movement and cut it to say 16 ticks maximum once again it becomes hard to get it wrong. If you are lucky or smart enough to get on at zero and the move starts up or down then after a few seconds you will be in profit. The only way you can lose is if you leave the trade by visiting the toilet, falling asleep, etc. Then the market would need to move back from a profitable position to point zero where it started and then away negatively from that position before a loss is likely. How or more importantly why would anyone let that happen?
So now we look at the genuinely dangerous scenario where you can lose. That is a ~5 tick move caused by players who hit the market with large orders which cause fluctuations which are difficult or near impossible to read. As I said before, you abstain when this occurs.
EDIT: Oscar I am NOT having a go at you, I am saying you are getting drawn in by what Zenyatta is saying. I am sure the update will be it didn't move in 24 ticks before the reversal but that makes no difference. The move down could offer profit and even if you made a loss you could catch a profit on the way back up as the "24 tick reverse" occurs. You will lose money if you refuse to accept what the market is showing you and assume it is a "false trend". I get it wrong every day but when I do I simply accept it, thank the market and start again.
I took it that Zenyatta was exaggerating with the 24 ticks. I thought the point he was making that if you sit and wait for the moves to come and then try to act, you will more often than not, or at least quite often end up with huuge reds.
Ive experienced it myself. I find it very difficult to 'read' the market. I am not closed mind enough to say it cant be done, you and others clearly make good profits by your ability to read the market and understand when the trend is going to continue, and when it is going to reverse.
I read his example as an extreme one which he was just exaggerating to make his point. I just think when you are using real money it becomes very difficult. As even when you have read the market and the move correctly, you still have to get your money matched.
How many times have you seen a horse steaming,lets say its 2.82 and you think its coming in, you try to go in at 2.8, nothing matched, though the move continues, 2.78, missed it, 2.76, 2.74 and so on and so on until you are finally matched at 2.68, then what happens, it goes 2.64, 2.62 before very sharply reversing and ending up back at 2.76 which is where you originally wanted to enter, but as you couldnt, you now have a red. Now what do you do? Go in again? Top up, hope it comes back? Take your loss? Or has the trend reversed? Is it going to carry on going out? 2.78? 2.8? 2.82 out all the way to 3??
Again that is an extreme example, but when using realistic stakes that scenario can happen time and time again and you just end up chasing your tail and ending up with huge reds all over the place. That is what I took Zenyattas example to mean.
Of course there are things you can do to avoid the above, though im sure that is what happens to quite a lot of people who try and 'read' the market. Its all very well being able to read it, but actually doing it in real time and getting your money matched adds a whole new set of problems.
The key is to be able to distinguish between the moves that will just carry on in one direction, and the ones that wont, this, in my opinion, is a hard skill to master, though can be made to look a lot easier than it actually is.
Ive experienced it myself. I find it very difficult to 'read' the market. I am not closed mind enough to say it cant be done, you and others clearly make good profits by your ability to read the market and understand when the trend is going to continue, and when it is going to reverse.
I read his example as an extreme one which he was just exaggerating to make his point. I just think when you are using real money it becomes very difficult. As even when you have read the market and the move correctly, you still have to get your money matched.
How many times have you seen a horse steaming,lets say its 2.82 and you think its coming in, you try to go in at 2.8, nothing matched, though the move continues, 2.78, missed it, 2.76, 2.74 and so on and so on until you are finally matched at 2.68, then what happens, it goes 2.64, 2.62 before very sharply reversing and ending up back at 2.76 which is where you originally wanted to enter, but as you couldnt, you now have a red. Now what do you do? Go in again? Top up, hope it comes back? Take your loss? Or has the trend reversed? Is it going to carry on going out? 2.78? 2.8? 2.82 out all the way to 3??
Again that is an extreme example, but when using realistic stakes that scenario can happen time and time again and you just end up chasing your tail and ending up with huge reds all over the place. That is what I took Zenyattas example to mean.
Of course there are things you can do to avoid the above, though im sure that is what happens to quite a lot of people who try and 'read' the market. Its all very well being able to read it, but actually doing it in real time and getting your money matched adds a whole new set of problems.
The key is to be able to distinguish between the moves that will just carry on in one direction, and the ones that wont, this, in my opinion, is a hard skill to master, though can be made to look a lot easier than it actually is.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
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Well it depends on a number of factors obviously I cannot start giving us my alleged secrets. My main reason would be loss and what I feel is reasonable. If I am looking at say 6-10 ticks profit per swing then 3 ticks loss would probably be time to exit and re-evaluate. If it is only a 5 tick swing then I am probably not going to enter in the first place but if I place a tentative feeler order something like 25-33% of my normal amount I would probably exit at 1-2 ticks as I know it could jump very quickly the wrong way and then I run the risk of getting caught a few times and compounding my losses!Ferru123 wrote:How do you determine when to exit a trade?
JeffJollyGreen wrote: I never use stop losses and prefer to manage it myself
I really need to post a graph to show you the scenario I meant - don't have one on me at the moment.
The scenario where I repeatedly lost a lot of money was usually on lower-grade markets with a single short-priced favourite (<3.00) dominating the book. You had a steaming favourite - the reason I just sat there watching it steam in rather than back it was because I wanted to catch the reversal at the end.
So say it started at 2.50 and steamed in to >>>> 2.00
Now say at some point the price reverses and it starts drifting again....this looks like the hoped for reversal, so I pile in with the big lay. Say that indeed it starts drifting hugely from 2.00 back towards 2.50 and all seems to be going well... I'm in the green so I add to my position and fire in additional lays....then suddenly the prices reverses again and before I can get out, the drift has totally reversed and the price has crashed all the way back to 2.00, and I've ended up with a big red.
The point is that the trends are usually only obvious in retrospect, not in real-time at the moment when they are happening.
But I do agree with JollyGreen about one point - my trading is retarded and I should never have been doing it
The scenario where I repeatedly lost a lot of money was usually on lower-grade markets with a single short-priced favourite (<3.00) dominating the book. You had a steaming favourite - the reason I just sat there watching it steam in rather than back it was because I wanted to catch the reversal at the end.
So say it started at 2.50 and steamed in to >>>> 2.00
Now say at some point the price reverses and it starts drifting again....this looks like the hoped for reversal, so I pile in with the big lay. Say that indeed it starts drifting hugely from 2.00 back towards 2.50 and all seems to be going well... I'm in the green so I add to my position and fire in additional lays....then suddenly the prices reverses again and before I can get out, the drift has totally reversed and the price has crashed all the way back to 2.00, and I've ended up with a big red.
The point is that the trends are usually only obvious in retrospect, not in real-time at the moment when they are happening.
But I do agree with JollyGreen about one point - my trading is retarded and I should never have been doing it