Market moves - right or wrong?
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Stake size could be important also zen. What you consider a large lay may not be so large compared to jollys and this could affect things. Also taking money or offering a position could make a difference. I guess a clever bot could identify someone offering money as traders money who will want to sell out, whereas someone who takes money a bot would find it harder to asses if it is a real bet or traders money and therefore changes their risk management.
I was going to say the same. I know you're not asking for advice Zenyatta but reading that it does sound like you are over staking. Trying to catch a reversal at the bottom is a very hard thing to do in any case.
Though one sure way to turn a green into a big red is to keep adding to it relentlessly. It could be that if your stakes are big enough that you are pushing the price into profit to start with getting your initial green, though if you keep adding to it as it moves sooner or later it's going to reverse back on you and leave you with a huge red. I find the market is very sensitive to large stakes, it is very hard to push them through without it springing back on you as you describe, it's almost as if it knows. I'd say do what you're doing, but with lower stakes and don't keep adding to your position and trying to smash every race with a huge green.
Though I agree with your point about seeing trends in real time being difficult.
Though one sure way to turn a green into a big red is to keep adding to it relentlessly. It could be that if your stakes are big enough that you are pushing the price into profit to start with getting your initial green, though if you keep adding to it as it moves sooner or later it's going to reverse back on you and leave you with a huge red. I find the market is very sensitive to large stakes, it is very hard to push them through without it springing back on you as you describe, it's almost as if it knows. I'd say do what you're doing, but with lower stakes and don't keep adding to your position and trying to smash every race with a huge green.
Though I agree with your point about seeing trends in real time being difficult.
Zenyatta -
There's a reason why financial traders compare picking bottoms with trying to catch a falling knife.
In the example you gave, if you'd joined the market when the steam was underway and ridden the trend, at best you would have captured a lot of ticks, and at worst you'd have been stopped out for a couple of ticks' loss.
It sounds like you chase the market, rushing in and out in response to every micro-movement, rather than taking a longer term perspective.
Jeff
There's a reason why financial traders compare picking bottoms with trying to catch a falling knife.
In the example you gave, if you'd joined the market when the steam was underway and ridden the trend, at best you would have captured a lot of ticks, and at worst you'd have been stopped out for a couple of ticks' loss.
It sounds like you chase the market, rushing in and out in response to every micro-movement, rather than taking a longer term perspective.
Jeff
Zenyatta wrote: You had a steaming favourite - the reason I just sat there watching it steam in rather than back it was because I wanted to catch the reversal at the end.
Absolutely, but I suspect what people often find difficult to judge is whether a trend has finished, or if it's just catching its breath before it resumes.
Jeff
Jeff
Euler wrote: Also when something is being heavily backed in, right in front of your eyes, it often doesn't make sense to oppose it.
Jolly and Jeff, I can only report my experience from 5 years of trading.Ferru123 wrote:
In the example you gave, if you'd joined the market when the steam was underway and ridden the trend, at best you would have captured a lot of ticks, and at worst you'd have been stopped out for a couple of ticks' loss.
Jeff
I have NEVER, I repeat NEVER ,made a profit from trying to follow trends or join trends once they are underway. Occasionally yes, I get the odd big win, but mostly the 'trend' turns out to be illusionary or finished before I got on, and the price reverses on me for large reds. The 'trends' are mostly only obvious in retrospect.
Now I imagine there must be some traders with the ability to follow trends ('momentum traders')
successfully on the horse racing. But I sure ain't one of them
So might it not be profitable to reverse what you currently do? Maybe you generally get onto trends in their dying embers, and going counter-trend would be a better approach than the one you use.
Jeff
Jeff
Zenyatta wrote: mostly the 'trend' turns out to be illusionary or finished before I got on, and the price reverses on me for large reds.
You can't only use graphs, you need to take into account a lot of other factors. Sometimes when I go with a trend, I always have an exit strategy, whereas you seem to just walk away and curse Betfair and what a fix it is, then return 2 minutes later and see that it has moved massively out of your favour.Zenyatta wrote:I have NEVER, I repeat NEVER ,made a profit from trying to follow trends or join trends once they are underway.
Surely someone could create a bot so it would do the opposite of the trader's instructions. That sounds like a good idea!Ferru123 wrote:So might it not be profitable to reverse what you currently do?
Zenyatta
Here's another suggestion. Get Bet Angel to monitor a load of pre-off markets on various races, and grab screenshots of the graphs showing activity 10 minutes up to the off.
Then study the charts. I imagine you will conclude that the market is not quite as wild and random as it sometimes feels when you are trading it.
Also, I'd follow JG's excellent suggestion in this post: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9752
Jeff
Here's another suggestion. Get Bet Angel to monitor a load of pre-off markets on various races, and grab screenshots of the graphs showing activity 10 minutes up to the off.
Then study the charts. I imagine you will conclude that the market is not quite as wild and random as it sometimes feels when you are trading it.
Also, I'd follow JG's excellent suggestion in this post: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9752
Jeff
Ferru123 wrote:So might it not be profitable to reverse what you currently do? Maybe you generally get onto trends in their dying embers, and going counter-trend would be a better approach than the one you use.
Jeff
I long ago gave up trying to trade trends Jeff. But I haven't been much more successful trying to trade counter-trades either.
On the face on it, there's simply not much reason for me to waste time and energy trading and losing, when I know I can pick the right horses (value bets) and win with outright gambling.
How confident are you that you have a long-term backing edge though?
In my opinion, the only people who can make money from outright gambling long-term are:
- People like JG who know their sport inside out.
- People who bet when market activity suggests that there is value to be had (although I'm in two minds about whether the market gives you signs that a selection is under- or over- priced).
- People who use the Betfair price to obtain value from the bookies (something that's become harder and harder in recent years).
Jeff
In my opinion, the only people who can make money from outright gambling long-term are:
- People like JG who know their sport inside out.
- People who bet when market activity suggests that there is value to be had (although I'm in two minds about whether the market gives you signs that a selection is under- or over- priced).
- People who use the Betfair price to obtain value from the bookies (something that's become harder and harder in recent years).
Jeff
Zenyatta wrote: On the face on it, there's simply not much reason for me to waste time and energy trading and losing, when I know I can pick the right horses (value bets) and win with outright gambling.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I have read your post. Sorry, bad day today health wise so give me some time and I'll post my reasons.Hambleden wrote:Hi Jolly Green,
Have been following your blog which is very helpful- thank you. Am a newbie so can i ask fol: You say you hate scalping 'with a passion'. Cd you explain why that is as i thought everyone did it?
Many thanks...
JG
[quote="Ferru123"
....although I'm in two minds about whether the market gives you signs that a selection is under- or over- priced).[/i]
Well that last race at Brighton gave a big sign..the winner traded at 700..It should never have been at that price (imo)
....although I'm in two minds about whether the market gives you signs that a selection is under- or over- priced).[/i]
Well that last race at Brighton gave a big sign..the winner traded at 700..It should never have been at that price (imo)