Market moves - right or wrong?

[Hambleden]

Very many thanks JG...so sorry about your health issues...u r a great help to us newbies! Await your reply with interest...

[JollyGreen]

Hi Jolly Green,
Have been following your blog which is very helpful- thank you. Am a newbie so can i ask fol: You say you hate scalping 'with a passion'. Cd you explain why that is as i thought everyone did it?
Many thanks...

I prefer markets that offer more movement and the better markets like Cheltenham etc get my juices flowing as far as the racing goes.

I will scalp but I have never really enjoyed it because it is too static. As the years have passed the markets have changed so you really need to be careful when scalping all but the really strong markets. You get 5-6 successful 1 tick trades then BOOM you get hit with a large order and 10 ticks are wiped off!

[Iron]

Tell me about it!

It's good to know that I'm in such esteemed company in having that experience when scalping.

Jeff

You get 5-6 successful 1 tick trades then BOOM you get hit with a large order and 10 ticks are wiped off!

[Iron]

No doubt, but what I'm talking about is finding value from market activity alone, such as thinking, 'Someone has just backed this horse for £20K, so I'll back it too, as anyone risking that kind of money probably knows that this horse is going to run way better than its odds suggest'.

Jeff

[quote="Ferru123"
....although I'm in two minds about whether the market gives you signs that a selection is under- or over- priced).[/i]

Well that last race at Brighton gave a big sign..the winner traded at 700..It should never have been at that price (imo)

[Zenyatta]

How confident are you that you have a long-term backing edge though?

Extremely confident. I used to slam in huge back bets on front runners from 5 minutes before the off. In fact I believe I changed the long-term market behaviour on UK horse racing markets, because I over-played my hand and people started copying me. There is still money to be made backing in front-runners, but it's a lot less than it was.

In my opinion, the only people who can make money from outright gambling long-term are:

- People like JG who know their sport inside out.

- People who bet when market activity suggests that there is value to be had (although I'm in two minds about whether the market gives you signs that a selection is under- or over- priced).

- People who use the Betfair price to obtain value from the bookies (something that's become harder and harder in recent years).

Jeff

If you have a basic knowledge of the sport, have carefully perused the form and have good intuition and killer instinct (willingness to go in huge when you see an opportunity) , I think it's possible to win gambling.

[Naffman]

In fact I believe I changed the long-term market behaviour on UK horse racing markets, because I over-played my hand and people started copying me.

That's a bit cocky

[Hambleden]

Re scalping: Many thanks JG...most helpful. One other thing: I have had some success in backing before then laying much smaller in running. Qn: Is it better in fact to put in the lay bet at the price u want before the race on Betfair and 'keep' it..rather than using Bet Angel in running..as surely with BA one might well be at the back of a queue and not get matched..while putting in before on BF one must be near the front of the queue at that price?
Thanks...

[JollyGreen]

It is often better to set a price, place the order and keep it. The problem with in running orders is the prices move quickly and it is easy to either miss your price or even get the wrong one!

[Iron]

I used to slam in huge back bets on front runners from 5 minutes before the off.

As outright bets, or wit a view to trading out in-play?

Why do you no longer do it?

In fact I believe I changed the long-term market behaviour on UK horse racing markets, because I over-played my hand and people started copying me.

You must be rolling in it by now.

Jeff

[Zenyatta]

As outright bets, or wit a view to trading out in-play?

Trading out in-play. Usually just after the off when the front-runner had (not surprisingly) hit the front and the price had contracted for a nice big green.

Why do you no longer do it?

The type of trading I describe still works. You can try it and you should be able to make a decent profit. At the beginning of the day, go through the form-book and select in-form front-runners. For each selection, wait until 4-5 minutes before the off then check the price of that selection. If the price hasn't drifted then its a good bet...put your back bet on at that time and then hold and trade out just after the off for a big green.

You must be rolling in it by now.

Jeff

I lost a lot of the profit back trying to do other types of trading which were not successful (as I mentioned, I blew 10K trying to do other types of trading which didn't work out). Also spent a lot of my winnings on expensive travel

[Iron]

Hi Zenyatta

I'm surprised you gave up on the back-to-lay. It sounds like it was very profitable.

What approach do you use these days to find your selections?

Jeff

[Zenyatta]

.

What approach do you use these days to find your selections?

Jeff

For obvious reasons, I'm not telling

[Iron]

OK, but I wasn't asking for a precise formula.

I was just wondering if you were a form student, for example, or if you worked off market activity.

But I respect your secrecy.

Jeff

[Naffman]

I have NEVER, I repeat NEVER ,made a profit from trying to follow trends or join trends once they are underway. Occasionally yes, I get the odd big win, but mostly the 'trend' turns out to be illusionary or finished before I got on, and the price reverses on me for large reds. The 'trends' are mostly only obvious in retrospect.

I was thinking about this after a race at Mornington today. The favourite had already drifted from 2.5 to 3.8, with the 2nd and 3rd fav. firming in strongly. Normally, I would be very hesitant to enter a trade on a heavily drifting favourite, but the conditions for me were right. Darren Weir is the trainer, who I've noticed can drift (or firm) heavily, but usually continue on their current trend. The 2nd and 3rd favourites also looked set to continue on their current trend. The starting favourite finished 5.5, with the others moving as expected. So, as long as your conditions look right and you feel confident, there should be no reason to oppose the trend.

[Zenyatta]

I was thinking about this after a race at Mornington today. The favourite had already drifted from 2.5 to 3.8, with the 2nd and 3rd fav. firming in strongly. Normally, I would be very hesitant to enter a trade on a heavily drifting favourite, but the conditions for me were right. Darren Weir is the trainer, who I've noticed can drift (or firm) heavily, but usually continue on their current trend. The 2nd and 3rd favourites also looked set to continue on their current trend. The starting favourite finished 5.5, with the others moving as expected. So, as long as your conditions look right and you feel confident, there should be no reason to oppose the trend.

Well look, well done to those who can follow the trends based purely on charts and indicators, but for me personally, never again. I've been burned too many times. I've seen price movements where it looked absolutely certain to me that the price was moving only one way, only for the price to suddenly and viciously reverse as soon as I put my money on time and time again for large reds. Take a look at this crazy graph just posted on Peter's facebook for the type of nonsense I'm talking about:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=772296486150212

(It's the chart for Gold Man from the 17:15).

Nowadays I will only place bets under conditions where I clearly understand the form-fundamentals driving the moves (for instance my example of backing in known front-runners I discussed with Jeff in the previous posts).