National Hunt race type - trading them efficiently.

[JollyGreen]

As the National Hunt season will soon be upon us I thought it was time to talk about race types. Many people struggle to identify the race type, many find it hard to understand why certain races behave completely different to other races. There are many nuances within races and how they are set up so I will not go into any great detail. To be honest you do not need to know the cut-off dates for a chaser to retain its novice status or how a horse came by his handicap mark. If you want to learn more about this there are plenty of good publications but from a trading perspective I don't feel it is necessary.

When a horse begins its campaign only connections will understand the potential it may have. Obviously there will be whispers and these can lead to very strange moves in the market. We can look at breeding of a horse or perhaps the cost to purchase it. These two generally go hand-in-hand as you wouldn't pay big money for a poorly bred horse. So how do we determine the races that are likely to produce volatile markets and those which produce more stable ones? Let's take a look at race types.

Novice events. This can basically apply to both National Hunt and flat horses but as we're moving into the National Hunt season let's look at that sphere. A lot of horses will start in a National Hunt flat race, often referred to as a bumper. These horses must be bred by National Hunt sires, you will not see the expensive flat bred types running in a bumper as this is not permitted. When we look at a card of National Hunt flat horses there will be very little form upon which to make a judgement. In some races the horses will be complete beginners and have no racecourse form whatsoever. You may find some have run in point-to-point races which are an amateur event. There have been many good horses that have come up through that field. These races are often volatile and low-volume; the two go hand-in-hand! I mentioned the connections and there will always be someone trying to find an advantage. I'm sure you've heard many a tale "this one is catching pigeons on the gallops!" These types of rumours will always pull in punters, generally the less educated ones who simply believe everything they hear. You will rarely find serious bets being struck in National Hunt flat race. Okay, the Cheltenham Festival and the Aintree Grand National meeting do throw up the better horses but even then you would not catch me wagering my hard earned on the say-so of connections.

You may have read some of my other post where I mention grade of race as a guide to volatility. A National Hunt flat race is generally a grade 6 and occasionally a grade 7 so you can see they are at the bottom of the scale. With reference to Cheltenham and Aintree they will be classed as a "grade 1" bumper but the same principle applies, there is very little form to go on. It is only the exceptional liquidity at these better meetings keeping the prices at a more manageable level.

Many people ask me what makes them volatile and the answer is always the same; lack of money! If there is no form to go on, or very little reliable form to go on, serious punters will be reluctant to bet sizeable sums. Because of this any decent sized order and sometimes a relatively small one, will have a large impact on the market.

The next category to look at will be novice and maiden events which amount to the same thing when looking at it from a trading perspective. Once again there will be very little, if any, form to go on but we have to throw into the mix the flat bred horse who has a lofty rating. What tends to happen is they are priced quite low and this is where the battle begins. Some form students will not bet a novice hurdler without seeing it jump a hurdle in public. There is a world of difference between schooling a horse over hurdles at home and running it over 2 miles at a racecourse where it will have to jump eight hurdles. When you factor in the other horses crowding as they approach a hurdle it can lead to many expensive failures. It is this lack of proven form that causes the volatility in the market. The layers will be taking it on as it has no proven form whereas certain punters will be lumping on simply because the horse is well bred and had a lofty rating on the flat. Be warned, these can be very volatile markets. How can we take advantage of this? A lot of the time a little bit of extra knowledge about the owner of the trainer the Jockey etc. will give you a decent pointer on which way the price is likely to move. If we take a horse trained by Paul Nicholls and owned by Paul Barber costing £200,000 from the Irish point-to-point field you can be pretty certain it won't be a 10/1 shot! It is more likely to be even money (2.0) or perhaps odds-on. This price is based on reputation alone and we can use this to our advantage. Take a look at the market to see if this hotpot is attracting support. If the answer is yes then very often the price will continue in a downward trend, if there is no support it can move out quite quickly! Yes, I know some of you will be saying tell me something I don't know but let me try and explain. In this type of market you will find the momentum of money has a greater impact than in say, a handicap race, a graded race, etc. Therefore, once we see the money coming there will be a certain element of momentum and we can quickly benefit from this. This a weight of money affair and whilst I am sure many of you will debate and question the reliability of such an indicator, trust me, in this market it works! The same applies to a horse that is not fancied, perhaps it is sweating up, pulling hard or misbehaving in another way. This can happen to the best horses when they make their racecourse debut as they are unfamiliar with their surroundings. If the layers (and bookmakers) see negative behaviour they will immediately oppose said horse resulting in a drifting price.

Without going into any more great detail if you see the words novice, maiden or National Hunt flat in the title of the race you have to expect greater volatility. There is one other race type where this will occur and that is a hurdler making its chase debut. It amounts to the same thing because even the best hurdler will start out as a novice chaser so you will see that in the title of the race.

If you take the information above and have a quick scan of the races you will quickly identify the novices the maidens and the National Hunt flat races. Once you know the race type you can set out your stall to trade them correctly. I advise looking for larger moves and definitely not scalping! If you cannot see a discernible trend then do nothing!

I will talk about other races in a separate post.

[lord]

Good article, i would go a step further than your warning/advice. Novices, maidens and the National Hunt flat races - AVOID AT ALL COSTS. Put a red line thru those races, there will be people who know a lot more than you, and burnt fingers or complete loss of your hands to first degree burns will be the order of the day. There are enough races where the form is readable and the market will behave in a way that is credible and understandable.

[kerrygold]

you can trade these dangerous races like 2 mins before race, always a pull back on heavily bet horses in these races right before the off

but u need a bit of nous and experience

[Archangel]

I find the Novices and Maidens can be quite profitable as there is, as outlined above, a bandwagon approach. As there is so little credible info on the horses, if a horse starts being backed, people think "hang on a minute, someone knows something here" and everyone piles on........... but yes, volatile and open to reversals. Handle with care

[Avenger225]

Hello where can i find other posts from you about other types of races?
Nice article by the way

[andyrich666]

Hi I really appreciate your reply, I am starting to teach myself the basics of form and this text from you has helped enormously, Thank you for taking the time to write it.

I look at tomorrows first meeting at Fariyhouse 12,10,

I am just curious to take the first to fav's in this race, both horses come from good stables with top jockeys but have never jumped before, other than in training, would that be a close assumption.