~3.80 is the average of uk racesfreddy wrote:Anyone know what the average wining odds are for uk horse racing ?
that should help
~3.90 average for IRE
Historical Betfair BSPs
I used a firefox addin that allows you to download multiple files at once from a web page then used python to join them together.
Here are the results from laying, as you can see its commission that kills this strategy. If you could trade/bet without paying commission you would be printing money.
Here are the results from laying, as you can see its commission that kills this strategy. If you could trade/bet without paying commission you would be printing money.
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Thanks, I thought it was around that.gutuami wrote:~3.80 is the average of uk racesfreddy wrote:Anyone know what the average wining odds are for uk horse racing ?
that should help
~3.90 average for IRE
the 1st spreadsheet had way higher than average winners, the second was about right, but it's a none point now anyway as Jeff got his sums wrong
.By the way Jeff, I once spent days and days going through some Football data and thought i found a great system, only to find out a stupid mistake in my calculations, it easily done
It sure is! 
The other challenging thing is that you might think you've found a great system, when in fact you may have hit upon something caused by randomness or a temporary feature of the markets.
Take the graph that Linus posted: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9801&start=10#p81555.
You might have examined lots of data between about 84,000 and 94,000 or 180,000 and 188,000, and thought you'd come up with a cracking laying system, only to have your dreams destroyed once mean reversion kicked in.
Jeff
The other challenging thing is that you might think you've found a great system, when in fact you may have hit upon something caused by randomness or a temporary feature of the markets.
Take the graph that Linus posted: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9801&start=10#p81555.
You might have examined lots of data between about 84,000 and 94,000 or 180,000 and 188,000, and thought you'd come up with a cracking laying system, only to have your dreams destroyed once mean reversion kicked in.
Jeff
freddy wrote: By the way Jeff, I once spent days and days going through some Football data and thought i found a great system, only to find out a stupid mistake in my calculations, it easily done