The clock never lies!

[JollyGreen]

Just a quick post on race times, sectional times etc. They are becoming all the rage now and it seems every time you listen to the "experts" on TV they are mentioning them.

They are nothing new but suddenly everyone sees them as the Holy Grail. It's a bit like the current trend of pulled pork or pulled chicken - every other recipe seems to mention it!

If you go back a few years there were a few people who used sectional times. This gave them a serious edge over the majority of punters. Even back then, they were nothing new as Andy Beyer had been using them in the US for many years.

So how do they work and what is the idea behind them?

To achieve the optimum time for a given distance you must run at a constant pace. There is no point crawling for 75% of the race and then sprinting for the last 25%, Vice Versa there is no point going like a Bat out of Hell for the first 75% of the distance and then dying for the last 25%.

You can apply this to any sport where speed is of the essence. I used to coach swimmers and it was always hard to make them understand the concept of pace. The juniors would often take it steady for the first 7 lengths and then sprint like crazy for the last one. Because they were closing on the leaders they always believe they simply needed to sprint a bit harder on the last length to eventually win! It became a self perpetuating myth and they never managed to win!

If you look at Formula 1 the pinnacle of motor racing, they do not have a dawdle around the track and then sprint down the straight. They use every bit of technology to ensure they find the best racing line in order to achieve the highest average speed. How often do you see the fastest car through the radar trap winning the race? Yes, it would be great if you could be the fastest car through the radar gun and the car with the overall best average speed as you'd be winning everything. The fastest average speed and therefore the lowest overall lap time is far more desirable.

I mentioned Andy Beyer and here is how things can change as information is spread. When he had his speed figures he could make a profit with ease as could many of the select few armed with them. Then his figures were published in DRF (US rating publication) and suddenly the bubble was burst and a profit was impossible. So why can't we take his methods and use them in the UK? Well many shrewd players did but there is a problem. In the US all tracks are oval and they all run left handed so recording sectional times is easier. In the UK only the All Weather tracks offer these fixed characteristics but even then we see rails moved and distances altered by course staff without informing the public. On the turf courses this adjustment is even more prevalent and so recording sectional times is even harder.

Have I contradicted myself by saying the clock never lies and then mentioning the anomalies of course layout? Not really. If you look at the overall race time you will often see the good winners and those likely to win again and the poor winners who are more likely to lose next time they run.

How do we spot them? Well I cannot divulge personal methods but a simple glance at the race time, together with the style of the winning run will tell you if the winning performance was a good one or not. You can also look at other performances on the same card and compare the winning time or look at past races at the same course to make a comparison. The problem with the latter is the difference in running distance and/or going as mentioned earlier. You'd think this was a given but trust me when I say most punters will only see the result. How many times have you seen a horse win easily in one race only to come out next time and get beaten out of sight? It happens a lot and that's because the win was achieved in a poor time run against inferior horses.

I love to use Profrom as it gives you the facts about a race. At a glance you can check every aspect of a race and the horses involved. You can check how the distance and/or going suits, is the race run the correct way LH or RH? It may not find you the winner in every race but it will help you find a lot of losers!

At Plumpton this week I saw the money coming for The Omen but could not understand why. I had looked at the race and there was nothing in the previous winning run to give me any great confidence it would win again. When I looked at the figures it suggested he was now on the correct handicap mark. Basically he was going to need others to fail and for everything to go his way for him to win. At 5/1 I would take a chance but at 13/8 I would be hitting the lay button. You could get this information from the Racing Post website with their most basic membership yet punters were piling in like it was a good thing. Of course it could be the horse wasn't "trying too hard" when it won but rather than look at ifs and buts I prefer to trust my eyes and the figures. Perhaps he needed more of a break and will win next time but this is also an excuse after the event and long term these excuses will cost you money.

Obviously this is related to betting more than trading but this information and its use by punters/bookmakers/layers/form students is what causes money to move around the market. It is related to handicapping - a thorny subject I hope to cover soon.

When you see a winner running again, have a look at the previous win, read the comments and look at a replay if you can. It will soon become apparent if the horse is likely to be value to win again or not!

[burdo77]

Hi jolly, good post. I love reading your posts. I believe the sectional times can be somewhat subjective in certain circumstances. Such as if a horse who is running 1st and a horse that is running behind it. If they both got the same sectional time the first horse would surely have to be the standout sectional I would of thought.....

[JollyGreen]

Thanks Burdo.

There are issues with sectionals and most of them come from how a jockey rides a race. Some sit off the pace and gift a soft lead to the front runner. When that horses kicks for home and others chase him/her you get the fast finisher like I mentioned with swimmers. If you check the sectional times you often find the best horse didn't win the race based on time. Sadly the jockey on the finisher can just as easily go out next time and ride a similar race.

If a horse is leading by 2 lengths and the horse in 2nd runs the last furlong in the same time then you need to look at the rest of the times and how the lead was obtained. That is where you get subjectivity muddying the water when it comes to "TV experts" expressing their opinion.