Worcester 13:45 - a real puzzle

[JollyGreen]

I am working on a project today and just having the odd glance at the racing ahead. I tend to run a simple system on Proform to throw up certain runners which I then decide if I want to investigate further.

I will try and keep this brief....famous last words!

The favourite is Milly Malone and she has no form on this soft going and is yet to win a chase. Her sire is Milan and stats show his progeny can handle this ground and like a test of stamina.

So we have no form to go on based on the ground and the lack of wins does not inspire confidence. We (and other punters) have to hope she improves for the ground but at 4.0 that leaves us very little margin of error.

I would not be surprised to see money come for No Through Road BUT it is 151 days since the last run when a staying on 2nd over 2m5f. Many punters will hang their hat on the extra 2f helping but we have to ask if the horse had a problem? Perhaps they were waiting for this ground?

The other horse with figures to win this race is Royaume Bleu but he is also returning after a 212 day break and his best form is over further! I tend to think a horse returning after such a lengthy break must have had a problem so running it over shorter gets a chance to get a first run into it ready for a more suitable race.

So what does this mean? I think we could see a seesaw type affair at first in terms of price movement for the front three. Then if the confidence behind No Through Road is good we could see plenty of money for it. His trainer is shrewd and can get one ready so if word is out he is fit and raring to go this could see the money come. It generally starts early but sometimes the paddock judges need to see the rug come off the horse as this will show if it is carrying condition.

A similar trait could be applied to Milly Malone but it is more reliant on subjective money as she has no real form on the ground.

You can see why this race is a puzzle and why the prices move the way they do.

[JollyGreen]

With 50 minutes to the off time you can see the money for No Through Road and very little movement on Milly Malone.

It is likely these two will now play off one another. If the money comes for one get ready for the drift on the other.

[to75ne]

good call.

[JollyGreen]

The money came (for some strange reason) for Vinnieslittlelamb and Milly Malone held steady. This meant No Through Road drifted like a barge. If you needed proof the market is not a reliable indicator of the result then this was it!

[fifacoin19]

However logistical conditions contain removed moment to.