It's refreshing that it's a fairly simple process, considering how many people seem fixated on producing highly complex ratings.
In my early days of trading the draw, I'm finding that choosing the right type of match to trade, the timing of goals, and their distribution, are as important a factor as the final result.
Football ratings
Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 35 goals today - an average of 2.89 per match.
3.88 : B Munich vs. Hannover
3.81 : Rayo Vallecano vs. Barcelona
3.62 : Dortmund vs. Hamburg
3.62 : Leverkusen vs. Paderborn
3.21 : Liverpool vs. West Brom
3.1 : Aston Villa vs. Man City
2.94 : Watford vs. Brighton
2.85 : Leicester vs. Burnley
2.85 : Hull vs. C Palace
2.83 : Swansea vs. Newcastle
2.71 : Caen vs. Marseille
2.58 : Sunderland vs. Stoke
3.88 : B Munich vs. Hannover
3.81 : Rayo Vallecano vs. Barcelona
3.62 : Dortmund vs. Hamburg
3.62 : Leverkusen vs. Paderborn
3.21 : Liverpool vs. West Brom
3.1 : Aston Villa vs. Man City
2.94 : Watford vs. Brighton
2.85 : Leicester vs. Burnley
2.85 : Hull vs. C Palace
2.83 : Swansea vs. Newcastle
2.71 : Caen vs. Marseille
2.58 : Sunderland vs. Stoke
Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 49 goals today - an average of 2.89 per match.
4.30 : B Munich vs. W Bremen
3.89 : Barcelona vs. Eibar
3.78 : Levante vs. Real Madrid
3.62 : Ross Co vs. Celtic
3.35 : Man City vs. Tottenham
3.24 : Arsenal vs. Hull
3.04 : Sassuolo vs. Juventus
3.08 : Schalke vs. Hertha Berlin
3.06 : Newcastle vs. Leicester
3.03 : Everton vs. Aston Villa
3.01 : C Palace vs. Chelsea
2.83 : Southampton vs. Sunderland
2.79 : Bournemouth vs. Charlton
2.77 : Burnley vs. West Ham
2.74 : Cardiff vs. Nottm Forest
4.30 : B Munich vs. W Bremen
3.89 : Barcelona vs. Eibar
3.78 : Levante vs. Real Madrid
3.62 : Ross Co vs. Celtic
3.35 : Man City vs. Tottenham
3.24 : Arsenal vs. Hull
3.04 : Sassuolo vs. Juventus
3.08 : Schalke vs. Hertha Berlin
3.06 : Newcastle vs. Leicester
3.03 : Everton vs. Aston Villa
3.01 : C Palace vs. Chelsea
2.83 : Southampton vs. Sunderland
2.79 : Bournemouth vs. Charlton
2.77 : Burnley vs. West Ham
2.74 : Cardiff vs. Nottm Forest
I make the average expectation 3.23 today. Has there been any discernible trend in goal expectancies over recent seasons? Your ratings generally seem higher than I'd intuitively expect without stats.
How do you select which matches to put up on this thread? They usually seem to include the higher goal expectancy matches.
How do you select which matches to put up on this thread? They usually seem to include the higher goal expectancy matches.
Slightly more goals in recent years. But the ball is inplay much more often recently.weemac wrote:I make the average expectation 3.23 today. Has there been any discernible trend in goal expectancies over recent seasons? Your ratings generally seem higher than I'd intuitively expect without stats.
How do you select which matches to put up on this thread? They usually seem to include the higher goal expectancy matches.
I generally go for matches with higher liquidity so often I'll catch more higher scoring matches in the ratings. It's somewhat accidental.
Not particularly. Pre off the market is pretty efficient but when the match is underway it can deviate quite a bit.burdo77 wrote:most of the odds fall within the 1.8-2.0 mark. Do you find better value in this range Euler?
Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 19 goals today - an average of 2.77 per match.
3.92 : Barcelona vs. Ajax
3.46 : Chelsea vs. NK Maribor
3.07 : Roma vs. B Munich
2.86 : Schalke vs. Sp Lisbon
2.73 : Porto vs. Ath Bilbao
2.62 : BATE Borisov vs. Shakhtar
2.67 : APOEL vs. Paris St-G
3.92 : Barcelona vs. Ajax
3.46 : Chelsea vs. NK Maribor
3.07 : Roma vs. B Munich
2.86 : Schalke vs. Sp Lisbon
2.73 : Porto vs. Ath Bilbao
2.62 : BATE Borisov vs. Shakhtar
2.67 : APOEL vs. Paris St-G
Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 22 goals today - an average of 2.75 per match.
3.48 : Atl Madrid vs. Malmo FF
3.40 : Liverpool vs. Real Madrid
3.21 : Galatasaray vs. Dortmund
3.16 : Anderlecht vs. Arsenal
3.12 : Leverkusen vs. Zenit St Petersburg
2.67 : Ludogorets vs. Basel
2.56 : Olympiacos vs. Juventus
2.53 : Monaco vs. Benfica
3.48 : Atl Madrid vs. Malmo FF
3.40 : Liverpool vs. Real Madrid
3.21 : Galatasaray vs. Dortmund
3.16 : Anderlecht vs. Arsenal
3.12 : Leverkusen vs. Zenit St Petersburg
2.67 : Ludogorets vs. Basel
2.56 : Olympiacos vs. Juventus
2.53 : Monaco vs. Benfica
3.41 : West Ham vs. Man City
3.33 : Liverpool vs. Hull
3.08 : Swansea vs. Leicester
3.01 : Sunderland vs. Arsenal
2.86 : Middlesbrough vs. Watford
2.84 : Southampton vs. Stoke
2.82 : Derby vs. Wigan
2.72 : West Brom vs. C Palace
2.74 : AFC Wimbledon vs. Tranmere
2.63 : Millwall vs. Cardiff
3.33 : Liverpool vs. Hull
3.08 : Swansea vs. Leicester
3.01 : Sunderland vs. Arsenal
2.86 : Middlesbrough vs. Watford
2.84 : Southampton vs. Stoke
2.82 : Derby vs. Wigan
2.72 : West Brom vs. C Palace
2.74 : AFC Wimbledon vs. Tranmere
2.63 : Millwall vs. Cardiff
4.34 : Red Bull Salzburg vs. Admira Wacker
4.33 : Barcelona vs. Celta Vigo
4.19 : Ajax vs. Dordrecht
3.63 : Chelsea vs. QPR
3.54 : Granada vs. Real Madrid
3.53 : B Munich vs. Dortmund
3.45 : Arsenal vs. Burnley
3.27 : Porto vs. Nacional
3.23 : Dundee Utd vs. St Mirren
3.18 : Atl Madrid vs. Cordoba
3.12 : Peterborough vs. Scunthorpe
3.06 : Brentford vs. Derby
2.97 : Guimaraes vs. Sp Lisbon
2.98 : Everton vs. Swansea
2.94 : Leicester vs. West Brom
2.93 : Watford vs. Millwall
2.90 : Bournemouth vs. Brighton
2.89 : Rotherham vs. Middlesbrough
2.87 : Wigan vs. Fulham
2.88 : Lorient vs. Paris St-G
2.82 : Cardiff vs. Leeds
2.80 : Hull vs. Southampton
2.79 : Sociedad vs. Malaga
2.76 : Stoke vs. West Ham
2.76 : Empoli vs. Juventus
2.75 : Parma vs. Inter
2.70 : Notts Co vs. Walsall
2.47 : Charlton vs. Sheff Wed
4.33 : Barcelona vs. Celta Vigo
4.19 : Ajax vs. Dordrecht
3.63 : Chelsea vs. QPR
3.54 : Granada vs. Real Madrid
3.53 : B Munich vs. Dortmund
3.45 : Arsenal vs. Burnley
3.27 : Porto vs. Nacional
3.23 : Dundee Utd vs. St Mirren
3.18 : Atl Madrid vs. Cordoba
3.12 : Peterborough vs. Scunthorpe
3.06 : Brentford vs. Derby
2.97 : Guimaraes vs. Sp Lisbon
2.98 : Everton vs. Swansea
2.94 : Leicester vs. West Brom
2.93 : Watford vs. Millwall
2.90 : Bournemouth vs. Brighton
2.89 : Rotherham vs. Middlesbrough
2.87 : Wigan vs. Fulham
2.88 : Lorient vs. Paris St-G
2.82 : Cardiff vs. Leeds
2.80 : Hull vs. Southampton
2.79 : Sociedad vs. Malaga
2.76 : Stoke vs. West Ham
2.76 : Empoli vs. Juventus
2.75 : Parma vs. Inter
2.70 : Notts Co vs. Walsall
2.47 : Charlton vs. Sheff Wed
Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 23 goals today - an average of 2.85 per match.
3.83 : Real Madrid vs. Liverpool
3.54 : Dortmund vs. Galatasaray
3.38 : Arsenal vs. Anderlecht
3.15 : Birmingham vs. Watford
3.00 : Malmo FF vs. Atl Madrid
2.88 : Juventus vs. Olympiakos
2.75 : FC Basel vs. Ludogorets
2.52 : Benfica vs. Monaco
3.83 : Real Madrid vs. Liverpool
3.54 : Dortmund vs. Galatasaray
3.38 : Arsenal vs. Anderlecht
3.15 : Birmingham vs. Watford
3.00 : Malmo FF vs. Atl Madrid
2.88 : Juventus vs. Olympiakos
2.75 : FC Basel vs. Ludogorets
2.52 : Benfica vs. Monaco